Monday, May 12, 2008

Obama's Hillary Problem

Over at Daily Kos, DemFromCT puts a worrisome stress on the "fundamentals" of the 2008 election.

The important numbers are Bush at 31 and wrong track at 82. McCain may run better than most other Republicans, but he still has to run against the fundamentals. In addition to right track/wrong track and Bush unpopularity, far more people (38%) are uncomfortable with McCain's age than an African-American President (12%) or a woman President (16%) - the explanation for the pushback against McCain 'losing his bearings'.

Obama will run as a fresh face, and do his best to highlight where McCain and Bush are inseparable (Iraq, health care and the economy). McCain will do the usual Republican shtick about "liberals and Pelosi and San Francisco values", all the things that didn't work in IL and LA special elections (there are new Dem congressmen as a
consequence).

I'm optimistic about the chances for Obama in the general election. I think he'll win by something like 57-43. Currently, the ABC/WashPost poll has Obama up by 7. Others have Obama by 9 or 11. That looks good given that Obama is probably in a trough as a result of the Jeremiah Wright and "bitter white people" comment.

McCain has all of those "fundamentals" going against him as well.

Interestingly enough, Hillary Clinton had a lot of fundamentals going for her at the beginning of the Democratic primaries. She had universal name recognition, nostalgia value from the Clinton years, an experienced campaign team, good poll numbers, and the prospect of being able to raise record amounts of money.

But she still lost because a good chunk of her support was never very solid and her campaign turned off a lot of undecided Democrats with its arrogance, clumsiness, and racially-tinged comments.

Unfortunately, Obama has the same problem. He's solid with upper-income white liberals and suburbanites, African-Americans, and young voters. But support from independents, moderates, hispanics, and blue-collar whites is hesitant and thin. In the final analysis, Obama is going to convince large constituencies of uncertain voters to vote for him over John McCain. The presidency isn't going to be handed to Obama as the default candidate of the Democratic Party. Obama is going to have to "win" it.

Phyllis Schafly: Still Supporting Really Dreary Marriage

One of the most fruitful things about anti-feminist, woman-hating icon Phyllis Schlafly is that she really let's you know what conservatism has in mind for women.

Here's Schlafly on marital rape, but it's really Schlafly's view of marriage (via Feministing).
Could you clarify some of the statements that you made in Maine last year about martial rape? I think that when you get married you have consented to sex. That's
what marriage is all about, I don't know if maybe these girls missed sex ed. That doesn't mean the husband can beat you up, we have plenty of laws against assault and battery. If there is any violence or mistreatment that can be dealt with by criminal prosecution, by divorce or in various ways. When it gets down to calling it rape though, it isn't rape, it's a he said-she said where it's just too easy to lie about it.

From Schlafly's point of view, "[t]hat's what marriage is all about" for women, being available for sex when they want it and when they don't want it. Husbands can legitimately force wives to have sex when they have headaches, when they're depressed, when they're thinking about something else, or when they've just given birth to babies. Marriage means that women have pre-consented to sex at any time at their husbands discretion.

It also means that women have pre-consented to being forced to have sex as long as that force doesn't result in bruises, cuts, bleeding, or other visible bodily damage that could be seen as evidence of "assault and battery."

As long as there's no visible evidence, Schlafly assumes that it's a "he said/she said" and that "she" is a lying feminist.

Unsurprisingly, Schlafly notes that feminists (and millions of othe women) find this kind of marriage to be a "dreary" prospect.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Herald-Leader Cheapens Billy's Happy Moments

John Clay of the Lexington Herald-Leader worries about Billie Gillespie's recruiting of 14 and 15 year olds in a sports column today.
Gillispie put up his best defense Saturday during a 30-minute news conference with local reporters. He said recruiting is "very, very competitive." He said evaluations have to be made earlier. He said there are no guarantees, just as there is no guarantee an 18-year-old senior will have his high school game translate to college competition. Asked if he thought this new trend was good or bad for the sport, Gillispie said, "It's just different."
Different in a negative way, I'd say. Many of Gillispie's points are valid, but you still can't shake the feeling that this somehow cheapens the game. It turns coaches into speculators, not recruiters. It turns kids into commodities instead of individuals. In a world in which we ask kids to grow up too fast, it accelerates the process.

That's tentative stuff, but it's understandable given that Clay is a local sports writer whose living depends significantly on scoring interviews with UK basketball coaches like Gillispie.

In fact, Billy Gillispie is not just getting commitments from 14 year-olds like Michael Avery of California and 15 year-olds like Vinnie Zollo of Ohio, he's a pioneer in getting these kinds of commitments.

The only other coach doing this is Tim Floyd of Southern California. In Clay's terms, Gillispie is not just cheapening the game, he's a leader in "cheapening the game."

Clay also neglects--politely I think--to mention the significance of signing young kids to Gillispie himself. Signing Zollo was not only a coup for Gillispie, it was "the happiest day of his life." The next thing you know Gillispie will be pulling a Pat Riley and stop coaching the games so he can focus on recruiting ever younger players.

Perhaps Gillispie finds signing these kids to be a little too meaningful.

Hillary and Those Hard-Working White People

"A" raises a strong point in the comments to the "Hillary EndGame" post about Hillary's "hard-working" white people comment.
I've hung with Hillary as long as I can, despite generally preferring Obama's thoughtful approach to politics and policy (see the race speech from Philly). I was willing to stick with her in spite of Bill's racial comments and her trainwreck of a campaign. But after her no-longer-subtle race-baiting last week ("working, hard-working Americans, white Americans"), I can't stomach her any more. She is not going to win, and these tactics aren't anything but spiteful and divisive.
But I have to respectfully disagree. I don't think the "hardworking white people" comment was a very apt thing to say for several reasons which I'll articulate later. However, I view the comment as a progressive step forward in racial politics. Here's Hillary's comment.
"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."
To refer to whites as "white Americans" is a very progressive thing in terms of American racial politics. For years, the media and whites in general have referred to whites in generic sounding but racially charged language as "normal Americans," "everyday Americans," the "mainstream," or just "Americans." In this language, to be white (middle-class, heterosexual, etc.) is to be mainstream, normal, and American. To be black, Hispanic, Asian, poor, or gay is to be exotic, outside the mainstream, and "not really" American. Americanism was for white people. Multi-culturalism was for everybody else.

There has been some comment about Hillary's "white Americans" remark reading non-whites out of America. Actually, it's the opposite. By referring to working-class whites as "white Americans," Hillary is reading white people into multi-cultural American. Just like there are African-Americans, Mexican-Americans, Japanese-Americans, and gay Americans, there are now white Americans. White people in general might be a majority but white people can be divided into many different groups and Hillary's comment treats working-class whites as a specific American subculture rather than generically American. Because Hillary's comment gets away from representing whites as generically "real" Americans, it represents a triumph of multi-culturalism and somewhat of a breakthrough in American political representation.

The real clumsiness in Hillary's formulation comes with the honorific "hard-working." To me, this is a class-oriented kind of remark in which Hillary is looking to praise working-class whites. So she calls them "working" or "hard-working." The comment comes off as exclusionary in the sense that Hillary can be seen as implying that either non-whites or Obama's highly educated white supporters in towns like Madison, Wisconsin, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and Iowa City, Iowa or Morehead, Kentucky are not hard-working.

But I don't think that's the case. Instead, I believe that Hillary was looking for a way to include white working-class and non-college educated people into a language of specific praise from which they're normally excluded because of their relative lack of education, relatively low incomes, and relatively low political profiles (unless they're unionized). She didn't want to treat working-class whites generically as "regular" people the way white people are usually described. She wanted to praise them but ended up with a formulation that made everybody else sound lazy.

What I'd like to suggest is that Hillary was not being racially provocative but was instead being awkward and unskilled because she is plowing new ground in terms of political rhetoric. I believe that was also the case with a lot of the "racially-tinged" comments made by Hillary, Andrew Cuomo, and Ed Rendell (the exception was Bill Clinton's obnoxious comments after the South Carolina primary). Interestingly enough, the Hillary campaign has done a lot for multi-cultural politics in the United States even if they haven't succeeded in getting Hillary elected.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Hillary Endgame

The Clark Gable Look. The local Hillary campaign set up a table on the Morehead State campus last week and I walked away with a Hillary sign. But I felt like Rhett Butler joining the Confederate Army after they lost the Battle of Atlanta. The big 14 point loss in North Carolina meant that Hillary can't get the nomination as long as Barack Obama stays alive, isn't arrested for a felony, or hasn't been messing around with Congressional pages. Hillary's best hope was that the Obama campaign would deflate when Obama was pressed by the combination of his own bitter people gaffe, the Jeremiah Wright issue, and Hillary's criticism.

But the collapse didn't happen. So, Obama is going to win barring unforeseen contingencies.

Having said that, I don't blame Hillary for continuing to campaign any more than I blame a top athlete like Michael Jordan or Sugar Ray Leonard for coming back too many times. If Hillary didn't have a huge ego and an irrational determination, she wouldn't haven't gotten where she and I don't see any reason for her to drop out until she herself sees that it's over. Likewise, I'm going to vote for Hillary in the Democratic primary here in Kentucky and probably will still post some Hillary-friendly blog items.

But it's pretty clear that the Democratic Primary has entered the end game with Barack Obama at an overwhelming advantage.

Why Did She Lose? I saw an item in Matthew Yglesias about Hillary losing because of her 2002 vote authorizing the war. I don't think that's the case. Hillary's initial support was always fragile and dropped dramatically as a result of her own illegal immigration misstep, her MLK gaffe, and Bill's idiotic comments after the South Carolina primary. The question was whether Hillary could have done anything to make her support more solid going into the Iowa caucuses. I'm not so sure. The Obama people ran a very effective campaign and Obama himself did an excellent job of dealing with crises as they came up. True, the Hillary campaign could have done things better, but Hillary's toughness and tenacity didn't come into focus until she fell behind decisively and had to start really fighting. Given all the mainstream media scepticism, her "Bill" baggage, and the doubts among Democratic elites, I'm not sure that even the best campaign could have solidified her support. In my opinion, Hillary's main weakness was that her initial support was only a couple of inches deep.

Hillary for VP. I don't think that Obama is going to nominate Hillary Clinton for VP but I would respect him a lot more if he did. Obama is not likely to nominate her because Hillary did run an aggressive campaign against him, it might be difficult to imagine Hillary as a member of the Obama team, and Vice-President Hillary Clinton would still be married to her undisciplined husband. But Hillary also brings several advantages to the vice-presidency. In fact, Hillary now connects with white women and white working-class guys whose votes Obama. Likely, she has already shown that she can be a team-player in someone else's administration. Hillary's also very knowledgeable of the federal bureaucracy, has a lot of connections among possible nominees for Supreme Court positions, and has a strong national defense profile. Finally, a Hillary nomination would create a surge of initial momentum for the general election campaign that might put John McCain permanently on the defensive.

An Obama/Hillary ticket would be the strongest ticket for the Democrats in terms of both electability and governance.

And if something happened to Obama, Hillary would be ready to step in on Day 1.

Well, anyway. She'd be ready.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Maybe Billy G. Should Start a Blog

UK basketball coach Billy Gillispie told Ohio freshman Vinnie Zollo that Zollo's decision to commit to Kentucky made Monday "the happiest day of [Gillispie's] life."

According to one recruiting service, Zollo was the seventh rated freshman player in Ohio.

Just think how happy Gillispie would have been if Zollo were rated third.

More on Waterboarding Cedric Benson

A couple of points in relation to the Cedric Benson story.

One of Benson's passengers, University of Texas senior Elizabeth Cartwright, corroborates that Benson's boat had been stopped for "random safety checks" all six times she had recently been on it.

It seems that the police on Lake Travis had a principle of "100% randomness" when it came to Benson's boat.

Benson's attorney Brian Carney is also bringing up waterboarding as an issue.
Carney added Benson did nothing "aggressive" until after he was pepper sprayed, when he started screaming for his mother and the boat. He said officers threw his client to the ground and poured water on him to wash away the spray, causing Benson to choke. "They might as well have been waterboarding him," Carney
said.

The Cedric Benson story isn't getting much play outside sports sites like Fox Sports. Perhaps that's because the police behavior toward Benson has become so normal.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Ouch!

Obama is crushing Hillary 62-38% in North Carolina. I don't think any of the polls saw that one coming even though Obama won by that margin in a lot of red states like N.C., Idaho, South Carolina, and South Dakota.

Monday, May 05, 2008

Getting into Line for Obliteration

I'm not sure why there's such a big brouhaha on the left about Hillary Clinton's comment that the U. S. could "obliterate" Iran if the Iranians launched a nuclear attack on Israel.

That's pretty much what any American administration would do if Iran nuked Israel.

Of course, I imagine that we'd have to get in line because the Israelis would want to obliterate Iran first.

Personally, I don't care all that much for the Israelis than I care for Iran. But Hillary is just stating the fact of American policy.

Cedric Benson: Waterboarded for Boating While Black

One of the most severely under-reported stories in America today is our hair-trigger police forces. Chicago Bears running back Cedric Benson, an African-American, was hosting a gathering on his boat in Texas when he was arrested for what the police call drunkenness and resisting arrest.

Here's Benson's own account as reported by "AFP:"

There was no resistance on my part," Benson said. "Was I drunk? No. . . They gave me a field sobriety test, told me to say my ABCs and told me to count from 1 to 4 up and down. I'm thinking I passed all the tests, did everything right . . . Then the officer told me we needed to go to land to take more tests. I politely asked him why we needed to go to land to take more tests when I took every test. Then he sprayed me with mace . . . I'm not handcuffed. I'm not under arrest. I'm not threatening him. I'm not pushing him. I'm not touching him. And he sprays me right in my eye . . . Nobody saw what he did to me. I started screaming for my mother to come. That's when they put me under arrest. And the officer threw a life jacket over my head.

Once we got to land, the Travis County police grabbed me and kicked my feet from under me. So I landed on my back while I was handcuffed. They held me down and held the water hose over my face. I couldn't breathe. I'm choking. I'm begging the cops, 'Please stop. Please stop.' Then they picked me up and dragged me backward toward their car. And I'm still being polite, asking them, 'Sir could you please allow me to walk like a man to your cop car?' They just kept dragging me on."

The police have a different account, but I'll believe Benson until proven wrong.

In some ways, it's typical police stuff.

There's questioning Benson away from his relatives and guests who might be witnesses:

". . . Nobody saw what he did to me."

Then the police officer took Benson's verbal objection to further testing as an opportunity to spray mace in his eyes:

"I politely asked him why we needed to go to land to take more tests when I took every test. Then he sprayed me with mace . . ."

If Benson's side of the story bears out, the officer was committing an assault and already engaged in a cover up.

Then, the officer took Benson completely away from witnesses so that he and other police could continue to abuse him. This brings us to what's innovative in the police abuse of Benson or at least what I haven't heard of before. Essentially what the cops did was waterboard him.

Once we got to land, the Travis County police grabbed me and kicked my feet from under me. So I landed on my back while I was handcuffed. They held me down and held the water hose over my face. I couldn't breathe. I'm choking. I'm begging the cops, 'Please stop. Please stop.' Then they picked me up and dragged me backward toward their car.
Holding a hose over Benson's face so that he was choking and couldn't breathe is waterboarding and is essentially a controlled form of drowning. That's why waterboarding is defined as torture in both American and international law. Not that being a form of torture would stop American cops. It appears that they're also coming more and more to use tasers as a form of recreational torture.

My question is whether the Texas cops who arbitrarily arrested, abused, and tortured Benson were waterboarding him as a kind of experiment or whether waterboarding had become part of their standard procedure.

The racial angle is also interesting. Hopefully, more of the facts will come out. But it appears at the outset that Benson's biggest crime was being a black millionaire holding a gathering on a nice boat that would fit fifteen people or more. It seems that this was the sixth time Benson's boat has been boarded by police this year.

In other words, Benson was "boating while black."

This kind of policing has its roots in the conduct of white police during the Reconstruction and segregation eras when the police were looking for opportunities to intimidate black men.

Police criminality still seems to be more directed at black people than other groups. Police shootings of African-American males have been an especially serious problem in Louisville, KY and Cincinnati, OH.

Over the last five years however, the cops have developed hair-trigger tempers towards everybody. One of my colleagues made a comment about the high number of police abuse incidents in Lexington, KY and I've heard some ominous stuff from the Morehead State campus. One police officer screamed at one of my colleagues for getting out of his car during a traffic stop. To put the icing on the cake, the officer then filed a complaint accusing my mild-mannered and very short colleague of doing exactly what the cop had done.

It's like the police are looking at the whole American population with the same kind of contempt and hostility they used to reserve for African-Americans. Perhaps the police think that equality means equal exposure to abuse and humiliation rather than equal respect and dignity. But that doesn't make it so.

Not Much Damage to Democrats

There's a CBS/NYT poll out today with Hillary up 12 over McCain and Obama up 11. It's an outlier compared to the other polls, but I think the dynamic is going to be between a big Democratic win and a small Democratic win.

This isn't to say that McCain won't poke his head in front in the polls while Obama and Hillary go at it. But McCain is a quadruple threat for political failure as a presidential candidate. McCain is advocating unpopular policies like continuing the war in Iraq, cutting corporate taxes, and privatizing social security. He's also gaffe-prone and paying for it with his "100 years in Iraq" comment. Third, McCain is a disorganized candidate who hasn't ever been effective at fund-raising. And finally, McCain does not have the support of conservative activists. I've never thought McCain had a real shot at winning and there's no reason to think he does now.

Obama and Hillary are still hammering on each other really hard and the effect of that is to muddle the picture in the sense that the eventual Democratic nominee doesn't have a big lead over McCain. Recently, Hillary's been going up in the polls while Obama's numbers have been temporarily hurt by the Jeremiah Wright story and the incredibly stupid "bitter people" gaffe. Both are rising and falling as the news cycles from Hillary's Bosnia mistatement and Obama's difficulties play out. But they're both still muddled in relation to McCain.

I don't think the muddled picture is a bad thing at all. Hillary's big lead from last fall was extremely fragile and she didn't have enough time to recover once the initial balloon was punctured. The same thing would happen if the Dems were 20-25 points up now. That number would crash as soon as Obama or Hillary goofed up something minor like immigrant driver's licences and the McCain-friendly mainstream media would be working overtime to make sure that such goofs happened.

The Democrats are in good shape now and it's easy to imagine a Democratic nominee stretching out his or her lead in October and winning big in November.

Sunday, May 04, 2008

Against Billy Gillispie

Today, I was in Lexington for a celebration brunch for a nephew who was graduating from the University of Kentucky when the name of Coach Billy Gillispie came up.

I should have blogged on this before, but I'm so disturbed by Gillispie that I've switched my local basketball allegiance from the University of Kentucky to the University of Louisville. I still have loyalties to Syracuse and Penn State (the local powers where I grew up), North Carolina (from grad school), Michigan (post-doc), Penn (dissertation research), and the University of California from my time in Oakland. So, I'm always going to be interested in a lot of teams. But I've supported UK basketball and football ever since I moved to Morehead in 1990.

However, Billy Gillispie gives off such a general aura of creepiness that I can't root for Kentucky basketball anymore. The fanatic way he drives his players, the super-high level of piety about himself, and the fact that he has no life outside basketball are bad enough. But I remember a John Clay article for the Lexington Herald-Leader claiming that Gillispie took the same approach to college basketball as the most fanatical kinds of fans. That's the last thing that any sport needs--coaches modeling themselves on the most obsessive and twisted fans.

Somebody at the brunch chimed in that Gillispie was also an alcoholic who wasn't trusted even to drive his own car. I'm not sure about the drinking, but I readily believe that Gillispie doesn't have a basic skill like driving. He probably doesn't have a lot of other basic skills either.

Given that Gillespie seems like a time bomb waiting to go off, even a driven, Type A, domineering guy like Rick Pitino seems like a regular person in comparison. At least Pitino has a wife, kids, friends he pals, and some business interests on the side. All Gillispie has is the next game or the next recruit.

Anyway, I always liked cardinals. I'm rooting for Louisville.

Hillary: The Right Kind of Pandering

I like Hillary Clinton's position on the suspending the gas tax for the summer because she pays for the tax holiday by putting an excess profits tax on the oil companies.
“Senator Obama doesn’t want us to take down the gas tax this summer and Senator McCain wants us to, but he doesn’t want to pay for it. I believe we should impose an excess profits tax on the oil companies. They have record profits that they frankly are just sitting there counting because they are not doing anything new to earn it; they are just taking advantage of what is going on.

“We ought to say: Wait a minute, we’d rather have the oil companies pay the gas tax than the drivers of North Carolina, especially the truck drivers, or the farmers, or other people who have to commute long distances.”
Is the tax holiday pandering? You bet. But the gas tax holiday is the right kind of pandering because it targets the oil companies as the party that should really be carrying the burden of gas taxes. That's why the Hillary camp thinks her proposal is such a big winner despite the media consensus that she's wrong.

Too bad Hillary didn't connect the pandering gesture with more ideas on how the balance between corporate power and the lower 99% of the American population could be corrected. I'd like to hear some proposals on using federal leverage to curb exorbitant CEO salaries, re-establish product safety regulation, push corporate America to be more environmentally conscious, and revise NAFTA to make it easier for governments to regulate business.

Hillary should be pandering on those issues as well.

Saturday, May 03, 2008

Iranian Domination: The Latest Right-Wing Strawman

I've long argued that one of the strengths of right-wing propoganda is that people on the right keep coming up with shiny new lies to bolster their policy initiatives. "Splatter-Boy" Dick Cheney was especially effective in deploying a wide variety of dishonest arguments to justify the invasion. One day, Cheney would accuse Saddam Hussein of being involved in 9-11 and the next he would claim that we needed to invade Iraq to prevent him from becoming allied with al-Qaeda. Then, Cheney might say something about mobile bio-labs and WMD's. When one argument got stale, Cheney would trot out another and he wasn't afraid to recycle old arguments that had been long been discredited because he knew that it would take a while to discredit them again.

That's why Cheney repeated the Saddam/9-11 lie so often after it had been debunked by everybody in the known universe, including George Bush. He knew it would work for awhile.
And the fact that all of these arguments were lies didn't deter Cheney a bit. "Truth" was something to be sorted out by other people.

Splattering out new right-wing arguments on Iraq is essentially what Bill O'Reilly's was doing in his interview with Hillary Clinton:
. . . Clinton stumbles on Iran. Both she and Obama want out of Iraq, but the unintended consequence of that would be a much bolder Iran. Those fanatics will spin a U.S. withdrawal as an "Islamic" victory. And then, most geo-political experts agree, Iran would attempt to dominate Southern Iraq.

The old right-wing shibboleths on Iraq withdrawal used to be that the majority Shiites would commite genocide against the Sunni population or that al-Qaeda would take-over or that Iraq would become a base for attacks against the United States.

But these arguments aren't working anymore. So O'Reilly cooked up Iranian domination as an "issue" to be tossed at Hillary Clinton and Dick Morris liked the idea so much that he featured it in his own column.

The argument is that Iran would seek to "dominate" Iraq or at least the Southern Iraq area around Basra.

Hillary Clinton responded not unreasonably that the Iraqis would reject Iranian efforts to dominate on ethnic Arab v Persian grounds.

She could have given 10 or 12 other objections as well, the most relevant being that Iran doesn't have the resources needed to dominate Iraq or any part of Iraq.

Despite spending $600 billion over the last five years, the U. S. still does not "dominate" Iraq enough to count on the Iraqi government, armed forces, or police as allies. Consequently, the Iranians would have to spend more than our paltry $120 billion a year in order to achieve real "domination."

However, Iran's actual defense/military budget is 6.2 billion dollars per year. That's not only not enough to militarily or diplomatically dominate Iraq, it's barely more than half of the $12 billion U. S. military expenditures in Iraq for the month of April 2008.

In my thumbnail estimate, the Iranians have enough resources to occupy Iraq for about one week per year if they decided to invade. Otherwise, they're going to be stuck in the same boat the U.S. is in, trying to help the Iraqis stabilize by encouraging negotiations among the various Iraqi Shiite groups. If the Iranians are going to have leverage, they're going to gain it through the kind of diplomacy they exercised to broker the cease-fire in Basra.

Otherwise, they're not really a problem.

Friday, May 02, 2008

Youth Will Be Served

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks beat the heavily-favored Boston Celtics 103-100 to force a Game 7 in their first round playoff series.

I'm not surprised.

I've always admired Kevin Garnett and I liked Rajon Rondo when he was at Kentucky. But Atlanta's been able to use its youth and athleticism to considerable advantage against the Celtics and has a real shot at winning the deciding game in Boston.

Youth and athleticism is doing better these days. That's a big reason why Golden State beat the Mavs last year and an even bigger reason why the Yankees haven't been able to win it all lately in our former national pastime.

Maybe NBA teams should start giving the max contracts to rookies instead.

"Mission Accomplished"

Yesterday was the fifth anniversary of George Bush's flight onto the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier with the famous and famously stupid "Mission Accomplished" banner.
"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended," Bush said at the time. "The battle of Iraq is one victory in a war on terror that began on Sept. 11, 2001, and still goes on."
But what has the Bush administration accomplished?

More than I'd like to admit. They've kept fighting the war in Iraq despite the opposition of Congress, public opinion, and their own generals. In this sense, the Bush administration is a renegade government but they succeeded in intimidating the Democratic leadership into continuing the war.

The Bush administration has also succeeded in turning the United States into a rogue super-power. With the Bush doctrine, the United States reserves the right to invade any country that might emerge as a competitor. McCain advisers like Robert Kagan are following the logic of the Bush doctrine when they call for treating Russia and China with the same relentless animosity that we now reserve for Iran and North Korea.

Given that the Bush administration refuses to negotiate as a matter of principle and demands that every other country either give us what we want or face retaliation, it wouldn't be going to far to claim that the United States has become a force for instability throughout the world.

Much of the "rogue" status of North Korea and Saddam Hussein's Iraq is connected with their reflexive belligerence, indulgence in torture, and general refusal to follow international standards of behavior.

The same is the case with the United States under the Bush administration. President Bush, Dick Cheney, and other figures in the Bush administration have been so eager to exchange insult for insult with bin Laden, Ahmadinejad, and Kim that American pronouncements now have the same homoerotic feel as the put-downs and threats issues by professional wrestlers.

Much worse, the Bush administration has constructed a vast international network for illegally confining and torturing hundreds or thousands of innocent Afghans and Iraqis who have been taken up by the War on Terror dragnet. Whether it is exploring new vistas or sensory deprivation, developing tactics for tormenting Muslim prisoners, or elaborating a web or international institutions for torturing prisoners and hiding responsibility, the Bush administration has made a point of flouting international law and disdaining moral standards that the U. S. itself was active in creating.

If such practices continue into the next administration (and there's a good chance they will), the Bush administration will have succeeded in making the U. S. into a war criminal state.

The United States needs to turn away from the path defined by the Bush administration. But the first step in changing direction is acknowledging how successful the Bush administration has been in turning the United States into a rogue superpower and war criminal state.

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Today's Hillary News

1. The Call. I finally got a call from some Hillary people asking for money. They weren't modest. They wanted $50 on top of the $100 I've already put in. I was glad to hear the pitch. I get a lot of calls from the Obama campaign. Still, the answer was "no."

2. Turning the Tide. There's been some good poll numbers coming out for Hillary. She's starting to kill Obama among white working-class voters. Likewise, there are a couple of polls out with her doing better than Obama among independents and she's lengthening her lead over McCain.

3. An Exercise in Tenacity. Fighting from behind, Hillary Clinton is showing just how tough she is. It's what I've wanted to see from a Democrat all along. And its helping her.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

No Need for Enemies

With friends like Jeremiah Wright, it looks like Barack Obama is now out of the market for enemies.

In making his remarks yesterday, Wright decided that his need to take an "I'm About Me" moment took precedence over the campaign of his most famous parishioner, a long-time friend, and the first black presidential contender.
Wright seemed to relish the chance to speak out after weeks of being derided in the press. He reveled in his retorts, high-fiving an audience member, pointing and winking at his supporters and mocking descriptions of him as Obama's spiritual mentor.

But my impression about Wright is that he's just an "I'm about Me" kind of guy.

What a jerk!

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Military Atheist Speculations

Spc. Jeremy Hall is suing the U. S. Army over the harassment he's received for his atheism while he's been serving in the military. Hall seemed to have developed his atheist convictions while in the Army and began to be harassed while serving in Iraq.

Robert Farley of Lawyers, Guns, and Money treats Hall's primarily as a matter of religious freedom:
I really can't imagine a better case than this for a strictly observed separation between church and state. Religious pluralism in the military forces of the United States in inevitable, and every soldier will have a particular understanding of the interaction between religious responsibility (often none) and patriotic duty. The identification of patriotism and military service with any specific understanding of faith is, for reasons that should be obvious, enormously destructive. The idea of browbeating atheists into compliance is appalling in its own right, but is particularly troubling in the context of the War on Terror, which even the President has stressed is not, primarily, a religious war.

Actually, the agenda of the officers who were threatening Spc Hall was broader than that. They were trying to define the United States as a "Christian nation" and Hall's atheism as a kind of dereliction of duty.


When Hall organized a meeting for military atheists in Iraq, Major Freddy J. Welborn started to threaten Hall and the other atheists with rejection for re-enlistment and other penalties. But he also viewed Hall and the others as failing to uphold the Constitution.

“People like you are not holding up the Constitution and are going against what the founding fathers, who were Christians, wanted for America!” Major Welborn said, according to the statement.

Of course, liberals emphasize that the Constitution makes no mention of Christianity at all and that the authors of the Constitution were emphatic about not setting up an official American religion. What Major Welborn was doing was taking the right-wing/evangelical perspective in the national debate over whether idea of the American nation has a Christian base and thereby opposing liberal views on church/state relations. Welborn was not only violating the wall between church and state, he was using his position in the military to promote his right-wing view of religion and punish enlisted men who didn't share that view.


Moreover, there's a chance that Welborn's views are shared more generally within the military. First in Iraq and then back in the U. S., Spc Hall received a number of threats in relation to his views on religion and seemed to believe that he was the target of a general religious hostility.


But why the hostility? Why the threats? Why the warnings from officers? I haven't seen any studies of religious culture within the military, but would like to offer up some speculations.


1. A Bastian of Right-Wing Culture. One possibility is that the right has succeeded in converting the American military apparatus into a bastion of conservative religious culture and hostility to liberal secularism. Given the size and power of the American military, I view the prospect of an aggressively conservative military as a great deal more troubling than violations of the separation between church and state. The perspective of a Francoist American military is frightening in any case and especially frightening if the U. S. withdraws from Iraq.


2. Small Unit Loyalty. I also wonder if officers and enlisted men view religious uniformity as one of the lynchpins of the small unit loyalty that enables soldiers to maintain their morale in depressing and futile situations like Iraq. According to CNN, one commander thought the religious question was so important that he wanted to know Hall's religious views right after a firefight.

Hall was a gunner on a Humvee, which took several bullets in its protective shield. Afterward, his commander asked whether he believed in God, Hall said. "I said, 'No, but I believe in Plexiglas,' " Hall said. "I've never believed I was going to a happy place. You get one life. When I die, I'm worm food."

3. Religion as a Potential Control on Misbehavior. Perhaps officers believe that piety among American soldiers makes them more pliable to commanders. I've seen a lot of reports concerning how angry American soldiers get at Iraqi civilians. Perhaps religion is viewed one way to discourage soldiers from acting on that anger through either killing civilians or fragging officers. Conversely, officers might also think that religious soldiers would be less likely to be paralyzed with guilt over the things they do. If people know they're "right with god," they might not worry so much about the right or wrong of last night's patrol.

4. The Rightness of the Mission. Christianity is a very flexible religion in the sense that it's possible to identify with God the father, Jesus and his self-sacrifice, the forgiveness of sins, the Virgin Mary, any number of Saints, and various kinds of Italian, Irish, German, or Hispanic ethnicities. It's a potent brew. The military is just as loathe to associate itself with Jesus' demands that people "turn the other cheek" and "resist not evil" as the corporate world is to remind us that Jesus hated wealth. But Christianity provides a powerful and comforting rationalizations for "the mission" in relation to ideas of God's will, human rights, and forgiveness for sins. It appears that lower level commanders don't want to do without those rationalizations.

Friday, April 25, 2008

The Terrorist I Know

I was interested today in John McCain's demand that Barack Obama apologize for his friendly relations with William Ayers, an "unrepentant" former member of the Weather Underground.

Actually, I know and am "fairly" friendly with a member of the Weathermen myself. Cathy Wilkerson is the sister of a local friend of mine and I've met her three or four times at gatherings where we've talked about stuff like how her daughter was doing in college. Everybody really likes her partner Tip.

But does being friendly with someone mean you know anything about them. Not in the case of Cathy Wilkerson. I've never been interested in 60's radicalism and haven't read anything about the SDS or Weathermen since I went through Kirkpatrick Sale's SDS as an undergraduate. That also means that I haven't read our copy of Wilkerson's own book Flying Too Close to the Sun.

I imagine that Barack Obama wasn't too interested in the past of William Ayres either.

The Dangerous Freedom of the American Police

Today, a judge found three New York City cops not guilty in the massacre of a guy named Sean Bell outside his bachelor party at a strip club in Brooklyn. As often happens, three undercover cops precipitated an "incident," then pumped 51 bullets into Sean Bell's car, killing him and wounding a couple of his friends.

It was hardly a surprise that the cops were acquitted. The witnesses were Bell's friends but a lot of them had rap sheets and they didn't exactly conduct themselves as respectable citizens in the courtroom. That might not have been so damaging with a local jury of everybody's peers, but the lawyers for the cops moved to have the case heard before a judge.

As a result, there was no jury.

The cops might not have been credible either, but they didn't testify.

The issue underlying these kinds of cases is the higher level of aggressiveness that's developed among American police since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Since the early seventies, the dominant image of freedom in this country has become the freedom of the police to commit crimes with impunity while they're at work. Movies like LA Confidential, police dramas like NYPD Blue, and reality shows romanticize the hyper-aggressive cop who disobeys orders, breaks the law, and kills people to pursue "justice." The Clint Eastwood/Mel Gibson cop needs freedom from red tape, freedom from supervision, freedom from second guessing, and freedom from considering the costs of so much freedom in the hands of self-righteous, trigger-happy kinds of guys.

At the same time, other images of male freedom have withered on the vine. Who associates freedom with heading a family, working-class leisure, cowboys, or John Wayne anynore? As a result, the freedom of the police has become the pre-eminent image of freedom in our society.

And the invasion of Iraq gave the cops more license than ever. Now, almost any excuse can trigger a violent outburst by police officers. About five years ago, one of my colleagues got screamed at for getting out of his car after he was stopped for inadvertently running a new stop sign. According to the cop's rationalization, the fact that the guy got out of his car led the cop to assume that he was a danger. In my view, the police officer was looking for a reason to intimidate someone and got what he wanted when my colleague got out of his car.

It used to be that blacks and hispanics got all the righteous violence from cops. But they're starting to generalize their intimdation to "respectable white people" as well. To give a minor example, two of the students in my freshman honors class have been tasered and another one was thrown to the ground after a traffic stop just last weekend (without being charged with anything). In fact, reports indicate that police have adopted tasering as a kind of recreational form of torture.

In the current atmosphere of police license, there was no chance that Sean Bell's family would get justice. In fact, there's little chance that anyone would get justice in relation to the police.

Who knows, maybe Peggy Noonan will get tasered next.

Peggy Noonan Hates the War on Terror

One of the amusing things about journalism is the efforts of reporters to derive BIG INSIGHTS from getting on planes, getting off planes, and taking cabs to and from the airport.

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed today, Peggy Noonan comes pretty close to hating the whole country because she has to go through a metal detector at the airport.
All the frisking, beeping and patting down is demoralizing to our society. It breeds resentment, encourages a sense that the normal are not in control, that common sense is yesterday. Another thing: It reduces the status of that ancestral arbiter and leader of society, the middle-aged woman. In the new fairness, she is treated like everyone, without respect, like the loud ruffian and the vulgar girl on the phone. The middle-aged woman is the one spread-eagled over there in the delicate shell beneath the removed jacket, praying nothing on her body goes beep and makes people look.

Noonan is so disturbed by a world in which "normal" white people like herself are subject to the same random searches that I'm surprised she doesn't pledge her faith to Osama bin Laden.

What's Noonan going to do if Obama gets elected.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

The New New Democrat: The Process Warrior

Today, I'll acknowledge my affinity with the liberal blogger Digby on two fundamentals for 2008.


First, I agree with her the Democratic nominee is going to beat John McCain pretty handily and I've been predicting for months that it's going to be 57-43 and I don't as yet see any reason to change my mind.


Second, I the nomination fight between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is a good thing. Digby has a post today on how the nomination battle is giving Democrats in states like North Carolina a reason to get excited because their votes are going to have a meaningful impact on the nomination.


The same is true in my state of Kentucky.


There are a lot of other positive effects as well.


The biggest positive effect is that both campaigns are developing much better combinations of discipline and aggressiveness.


The Hillary campaign has put Bill on the Dan Quayle trail of small out of the way places like Morehead, KY and demoted Mark Penn. They've also learned how to hit hard at emerging Obama weak points without worrying about credibility. When Obama foolishly talked about bitter white people and their guns, Hillary shamelessly pandered about learning to shoot from her dad. That's what she needs to do now and it's what she needs to do if she becomes President.


For it's own part, the Obama campaign is learning the parry and thrust of fighting to win each news cycle and the candidate himself had one of his best moments responding to the Jeremiah Wright accusations.


And Michelle Obama was sidelined even more thoroughly than Bill.


More needs to be done. Joan Walsh of Salon correctly observes that Barack Obama needs to follow Hillary's example and start doing a better job of proposing solutions for the problems he would face as president.


But more important than that, Democratic voters need to toughen up and embrace the ups and downs of the political process. A lot of white Democrats out on the streets want harmony, high-minded ideas, and an idealistic focus on policy rather than personality and symbolism. That's great in theory, but it's a recipe for disaster in presidential campaigns and failure in office.


Even more than Democratic politicians, Democratic voters need to realize that most political fighting takes place in the gutter and be willing to see their candidates roll around in the gutter with the Karl Roves, Lee Atwaters, and Bill O'Reilly's of the world.


Scott Adams of Dilbert fame used to joke about engineers becoming "process warriors." But that's exactly what Democratic voters need to become. They need to become "process warriors" who fight with Democratic campaigns and officeholders until the process turns out some progressive sausage for a change.

The Downside of Atheism

I've always been pretty open about being an atheist. I even announced myself as a "stone atheist" at a public forum on Church v State at a forum in 2006.

But the downside of public atheism is that I find myself talking about religion a lot more than I ever thought would be necessary.

Or possible.

For Easter, a local minister was interested in my comments on why I didn't believe in the resurrection of Jesus.

I guess he wanted to spice up his sermon.

Yesterday, a couple of the honors students invited me to a "Questions of Faith" activity in which I was totally out of place.

If it turns out that Christians are right about god, Jesus, hell, and all that, I imagine that I'll be punished by being forced to talk about Jesus for the rest of eternity.

But I guess that why it's hell.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Hill By Ten in the Keystone State

The Margin. Hillary won by ten in Pennsylvania today. Ten was as far out as the polls were willing to take her. I was thinking 12 because the polls have been undercounting Hillary in the states she's won. But the Zogby and Suffolk were right and I was wrong.

Keeping On Keeping On. I think it's clear that Hillary should push on. It's evident that Barack Obama is just as capable of self-destructing under pressure as the next politician. So, there's no reason why Hillary shouldn't keep applying the pressure.

The Focus of the Battle. Still the question concerning Democrats now is whether Barack Obama is the guy we really want. Curiously enough, Hillary has finally crossed the presidential plausibility threshold. Even though she's seemingly on the verge of defeat, Hillary has emerged as the default candidate if Obama fails the still lengthy series of tests in front of him. But the nomination is Obama's to lose now.

Wishing for Wish Fulfillment. I'd like to see both Obama and Hillary focus more on what they're going to do as president and I'd like to see the media cover that story as well as the attacks on each other.

Well, I can always dream.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Freedom from Education, Sexy Guns, and Rockette Racism: Why Obama will lose Pennsylvania

Having grown up on the Pennsylvania border, travelled throughout the state, and spent a lot of time in Philadelphia, I know Pennsylvania fairly well.

So, here are my comments on tomorrow's Democratic primary.

1. Hillary by 12. My record as a primary prognosticator is terrible, but my gut feeling is that Hillary will be at the outer edge of the polls if not a little further out. A lot of Hillary's margin depends on how well she does in the Philly suburbs that should be Obama country.

2. Bitter People. Obama really blew it with his "people cling to God, guns, and racism out of their bitterness over the economy statement." Sure, there's bitterness over the economy. Two of my cousins couldn't make their dairy farms in Northeastern Pennsylvania profitable, had to start working in the local Sylvania factory, and died in their forties. But that doesn't have much to do with God, guns, and race.

3. Guns, Freedom, and Sex. Most of the Pennsylvania guys I knew weren't any more interested in God than they were in being gay. But there's a certain extent that the guns represent an element of freedom that's not enjoyed in the tonier Philadelphia suburbs. My Pennsylvania cousins all viewed themselves as having the freedom to reject education, college, and the 60 hour/week world for hunting, fishing, and otherwise focusing on their own enjoyment. There's a lot less of that freedom in the upper middle-class suburbs. I haven't been in contact with my cousins for a long time, but I imagine that guns have also acquired the same kind of huge autoerotic sexual charge in Pennsylvania that they now have in Kentucky. As my students say, a lot of guys are more interested in their guns than they are in women.

4. Multiple sources for Racism. People don't cling to racism out of economic bitterness either. Unlike the South where racism tends to have monolithic roots in regional grievance, family loyalty, and nostalgia for segregation, Northern racism is fed by little trickles of sentiment here and there. For older people like my mom, there's a kind of standing up for the racist past that is Southern-like in its nostalgic rejection of the present. There's also a tribalism of Irish, German, Polish, and Italian ethnic identification that defines blacks as outside their tribe or any tribe. It's easy to underestimate the extent to which ethnic tribalism permeates Pennsylvania families, neighborhoods, schools, and other institutions. Keeping blacks out has been a way to maintain the integrity of the tribe. There's also the Rockette aesthetic racism where white people who haven't been around many black people try to keep blacks from moving into their neighborhoods, workplaces, or families just like the Rockettes tried to maintain an all-white line. In Philadelphia, there was a class dimension to racism as well. White guys liked to vaunt their access to higher income working class jobs than the black guys they worked with. All these little streams of racial hostility add up to a tenacious racism that is unburdened by the horrors of pervasive police brutality, lynchings, and violent resistance to integration.

5. Black Working-Class. Actually, I think Obama's "bitter people" comments indicate that he has just as little awareness of theblack working class guys as he has of rural white people. Barack Obama is the political equivalent of Oprah, Michael Jordan, and Beyonce in the sense that he likes to pose his candidacy as "beyond category"--the Alpe du Huez of presidential candidates. But a lot of black life in an area like West Philadelphia is rooted in a sense of place just like a lot of white ethnic culture. Black life is not racially exclusive in the same way as white ethnic culture (people were nice to me even though I did get mugged once), but it's a kind of geographically, educationally, and ethnically bound life that Obama has little feel for.

If Hillary and Bill hadn't handed the black vote to Obama after South Carolina, she'd have won Pennsylvania by an even bigger margin than I'm predicting.

Rediscoveries

After buying an Eric Clapton compilation at the new Super Walmart in town, I realized that I'd forgotten just how good "Bell Bottom Blues" was.

Alien Gods, Intelligent Design Prophecies, and Those Little Cell Bits

Although I'm an atheist myself, I'm not a big fan of atheist perspectives like those of the well-marinated Christopher Hitchens and Richard Dawkins.

Not that the "Christian" side is any better.

Dinesh D'Souza argues in a column today that the famous biologist Richard Dawkins has been thoroughly tripped up by the complexity of cells.

Here's the gruesome details.

Dawkins argues that evolutionary theory refutes the intelligent design idea that there was a God creating either the universe 4.5 billion years ago or life on earth 3.5 billion years ago.

What makes Dawkins' argument reasonable is that the book of Genesis postulates that the world was created somewhere 6,000 and 10,000 years ago. If the universe is 4.5 billion years old and life on earth is 3.5 billion years old, then it is evident that Genesis is a fable and that the monotheistic religions have no authoritative account of the creation of life.

Evidently an "old earth" kind of guy himself, Dinesh D'Souza counters with the idea that there was an "intelligent designer" behind the formation of life on earth.

But that doesn't make sense religiously. Why makes the "intelligent design" idea better than the highly detailed six day creation plan of monotheism in the Book of Genesis? Perhaps D'Souza thinks that Genesis was a myth told to satisfy the curiosity of pre-literate peoples like the very ancient Hebrews. But if Genesis was all the feeble scientific minds of 10,000 years ago could handle, why haven't there been any prophecies of intelligent design. Joseph Smith came up with 600 pages of new revelations for Mormonism. Why hasn't there been an intelligent design version of the Book of Mormon?

In the final analysis, Dawkins and D'Souza end up in the same place. According to D'Souza, Dawkins thinks that single cells are too complex to be created spontaneously and postulates that some kind of "alien" brought the cells from another planet. That's also what God is for D'Souza, the alien presence that brings the fundamental biological unit of the cell into earth.

But why would cells have to be the fundamental biological unit?

It seems much more reasonable to postulate that cells themselves evolved from pre-cellular bits of matter that formed out of the primordial soup, flared briefly into life, and then died for lack of any kind of stable organization.

As a stable basis for organic development, cells themselves would have been the outcome of eons of evolutionary experiment.

Not unlike the Gods.

RSI Milestone

Yesterday, we did a little height comparison in the RSI household and it turned out that Miss Tween RSI had nosed ahead of her older sister.

That day was always going to come. Miss Teen RSI is barely over 5 feet tall.

Still, it was interesting to see it arrive.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

The Marginal Effect of Military Analysts

The New York Times had a much cited article today on the retired generals who appear on the television networks as "military analysts."

It's not much of a surprise but analysts like Gen. Montgomery Meigs of MSNBC, Gen. Wayne Downing of NBC, and Maj. Gen. Bob Scales of Fox were all shilling for the Pentagon. They all got a series of special Pentagon briefings, were flown to Iraq, and received talking points for their broadcasts. Far from viewing themselves as objective expert commentators, several of the generals saw their broadcasts as part of a broader "psy-ops" operation by which the Pentagon was manipulating American public opinion to support the war.

What's more, several of the retired generals had huge conflicts of interest because of their financial involvement with defense contractors.

As Glenn Greenwald observes, none of this should be seen as much of a surprise. Greenwald likewise digs out an old NYT story making the same point.

But a couple of observations can still be made:

1. Bush's War Against America. The Bush administration saw the American population as a potential enemy in the war on terror from the beginning. Bush's "you're either with us or against us" rhetoric didn't just apply to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria. "Psy-ops" operations are directed against enemies and potential enemies. The potential enemies included us as well.

Some of this is hangover from the Vietnam syndrome of conservatives thinking that the Vietnam War was lost on the home front rather than in Vietnam. But there is a domestic angle as well. Activist Republicans have long seen their conflicts with liberals as war. Newt Gingrich used to say that politics was "war by other means."

In this way, the Bush administration was getting ready to extend the war metaphor to its relations with the American population as a whole.

Of course, the big question is whether Bush and his cronies saw themselves as being really at war with the American population after public opinion turned against the war.

My guess is that future revelations will show that the Bush administration and conservative activists did turn against the population as a whole after the 2006 elections. There was a lot of noise about eliminating rights and establishing dictatorships from conservative intellectuals like Harvey Mansfield, Thomas Sowell, Gingrich, and Frank Gaffney in 2007. What I think is that future revelations will show that this anti-democratic chatter was also going on in the White House.

Perhaps that noise would have turned into real pressure to curtail American democracy if the Democratic leadership had stood up to Bush on war funding.

At the same time, I think that much of the hostility to the Democratic leadership originated in the public sense of the high constitutional stakes in ending the war. Since summer 2007, the Bush administration has been governing as a rogue administration and the public has a much better sense of the dangers in this than the Democrats.

2. The Campaign Failed in its primary objective. Like so much about the Iraq War, the effort to corrupt the military analysts was a failure. The Bush people weren't able to bag the most important and prestigious of the retired military analysts, Anthony Cordesmann. None of the other guys made much of a mark and I bet most television viewers couldn't tell them apart without a program. The other thing is that the pressure of constant failure from the onset of the insurgency to Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, the revolt of the generals, and the post-Samarra collapse functioned to turn public opinion against the war despite the best "psy-ops" the Bush administration could muster.

In other words, the whole Bush media apparatus failed in its primary objective of maintaining public support for the war.

But I do think the media campaign from the Bush administration and the right-wing has had an effect. What it's accomplished is to create enough doubt about the consequences of withdrawal that the Democratic leadership decided not to pull the trigger on a confrontation with Bush. Most of that doubt was among elites, but it was still enough to give the Bush administration the opening they wanted to continue the war.

In this sense, the corrupt military analysts were part of a relatively successful effort to buy the Bush administration time to readjust their war strategy and give them some hope that a pro-war Republican would win the presidential election in 2008.

The Significance of the 2008 Election. This sets up the 2008 election as a big deal. I've thought all along that the Democratic candidate would win handily. But there's still a chance that McCain, the conservative media, or the Democratic nominee him or herself could sow enough doubt about the Democrats that McCain could squeak out a win. If that happens, a McCain administration would spend its four years fighting to keep anti-war governing majority from coalescing just as the Bush administration is now. But if a Democrat does win, there's a good chance that the whole pro-war apparatus will go up in smoke and that the Democrats will have a ruling majority and some momentum.

What they would do with that is another question.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Comments to Hillary Campaign

I've been getting e-mail from Geoff Garin of Hillary Clinton's campaign soliciting comments about strategy, encouragement to Hillary, and so on.

Here's a somewhat better developed version of my reply.

1. Dissociate herself from the Nineties. The Hillary campaign needs to completely separate her from the DLC/triangulation politics of the 1990's. Reducing Mark Penn's role, criticizing NAFTA, and lowering Bill Clinton's profile are steps in that direction. But more steps need to be taken. Hillary should speak more about the value of labor unions, the importance of working class men and the sacrifices they make for their families, the importance of raising wages, and the importance of reducing the disparity between CEO's and working-class people. The Bill Clinton administration shifted away from the "New Deal Democratic" coalition by being distancing themselves from labor unions, black people, and the poor and embracing deregulation. Although Hillary has already started the shift back, she should be more emphatic about it.

2. Renounce the Bush Doctrine. Hillary also needs to highlight her determination to withdraw from Iraq by also renouncing the Bush doctrine of attacking anybody who is an emerging threat and treating anybody who disagrees with us as an enemy. I get comments from a lot of people on both the right and left that Hillary won't "really" withdraw from Iraq. Renouncing the whole Bush doctrine might make her more convincing on that score.

3. Embrace the "activist" Democratic base. It was reported yesterday or today that Hillary made some negative comments about MoveOn.org and the activist "white" Democratic base after Iowa. She should do a 180 turn and embrace MoveOn, the liberal blogs, and Media Matters (which she helped get started didn't she) and their opposition to the war, support for environmental initiatives, and passion for racial and gender justice. Lots of people on the left view Hillary as more progressive than Obama. The activist left also has the kind of partisan, fighting spirit that Hillary herself is trying to exemplify. Hillary needs to nail her association with the left by openly identifying herself with progressives. In terms of her disagreements, she should emphasize that she agrees with progressive ideals but that it is also important to compromise with other constituencies and deal with some of the the unintentionally negative consequences of progressive initiatives.

4. Finally, Hillary needs to keep coming at Obama from several angles at the same time. For some reason, Democrats generally think that pounding away at one theme ad nauseum is the best way to do things. It's not. Of course, the risk of attacking Obama is that lots of Democrats don't like going negative on other Demcrats. But I don't think the Hillary campaign is in a position to do anything else.

Obviously, Hillary's behind. But she can still win and should be pushing as hard as she can.

Friday, April 18, 2008

The Personality Driven News Media

I want to start with Glenn Greenwald hammering the mainstream media again about their "petty personality-driven" reporting on presidential candidates.
Most certainly, the press will pretend to be above it all ("this is not something that we, the sophisticated political journalists, care about, of course"). But they yammer about Drudge-promoted gossip endlessly, and then insist that their own chattering is proof that it is an important story that people care about. And because they conclude that "people" (i.e., them) are concerned with the story, they keep chirping about it, which in turn fuels their belief that the story is important. It is an endless loop of self-referential narcissism—whatever they endlessly sputter is what "the people" care about, and therefore they must keep harping on it, because their chatter is proof of its importance.

Greenwald's right about the media and he's also right to keep hammering the media. Here's a couple of additional points.

1. An Embargo on Substance. One has to wonder whether a focus on "petty, personality-driven issues is a "ticket to admission" to the major mainstream media as well as the dominant mode of reporting. Perhaps the best way a young up and coming reporter can get on the air is read Drudge, catch up on Rush Limbaugh, and try to make Republican talking points sound like news. The embargo on substance might not just be a product of vapid media personalities; it might be a whole system where only the vapid survive.

2. Personality Politics Without Personality. One of the things about the media being obsessed with personality is that the mainstream media itself doesn't have that much personality. There's television personalities on the right like Sean Hannity and some of the Fox people. But the mainstream network guys like Brian Williams, Charlie Gibson, George Stephanopolous aren't all that distinguishable and neither are their reporters. Katie Couric is still known more as a morning show personality than a news personality. Sure, Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann have personalities but they're also outside the loop.

No matter how it's sliced, television is a personality driven media. Perhaps the mainstream media focuses on political personalities as a way to make up for its own personality deficit.



Thursday, April 17, 2008

But I'm Still for Hillary

And here's some reasons.

1. Damage to Obama's Candidacy. Now that that Barack Obama is the candidate of no flag lapel pin (I don't wear one either), the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and bitter white people, he's much more of a normal politician than "a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who has the skill and eloquence to help us raise our eyes and our aspirations beyond individual, personal concerns, beyond religion or region or race or gender beyond our well-founded fears to a shared destiny."

Frankly, I like Obama better now that he's at least knee deep in the muck of American society and politics and thinking about why it's so tough (which is what Obama was doing with the "bitterness" remark). The "raise our eyes and our aspirations beyond individual, personal concerns, beyond religion or region or race or gender beyond our well-founded fears to a shared destiny" idea sounds like pseudo-fascist crap. I'm not just throwing around the "Nazi" word either. Hitler talked a lot about lifting the German people above their "individual, personal concerns" as well.

2. Young People Aren't All That Great. I've worked with college students in Kentucky for most of the last twenty years and I can say with a lot of conviction that young people haven't gotten beyond "baby-boomer/Vietnam/segregation-era hangups" about race, gender, gay rights, abortion, patriotism or any of the other issues from the Vietnam era. The thing I can see that's really faded into cultural irrelevance is Led Zeppelin's "Stairway to Heaven" which was still popular when "Wayne's World" came out in 1992 (and we can all be grateful for that). But the rest of it is still there. Not that things have gotten significantly worse, but anyone who thinks that young people have escaped the evils of the past needs to reflect on school shootings, pornography, violent video gaming, date rape drugs, and the pervasiveness of heavy-duty binge drinking. Just to mention one thing that has gotten worse, college guys seem much more misogynous than they were 30, 15, or even 10 years ago.
It's precisely because of the limitations on her constituencies that Hillary Clinton strikes me as much more "large D" democratic than Obama. That's a good reason to support her.

3. She's prepared. Hillary knows full well that either her or Obama would have to deal with powerful reaction against their persons and their policies once they're elected. The next four years are going to be tough. Withdrawing from Iraq is going to be a bitter pill for the right-wing and the military to swallow and it's going to be made tougher with the general atmosphere of bitterness over the recession, gas prices, the revelation of yet more scandals from the Bush administration, and the general Bush hang-over. Hillary will be ready on Day 1 because she has an idea of just how bad things are going to be. Likewise, the American public knows what it's going to get with a Hillary presidency.

To the contrary, Obama won't be ready because he thinks that he's going to generate something approaching consensus. And the American public won't be prepared for the fact that he's not ready either. Four years of Obama sounds like four years of disillusion that I would rather live without.

4. A False Premise. The only way that an Obama presidency could work is if the activist right-wing was eliminated as a powerful force in American society. Perhaps an Obama victory could lead to people no longer listening to the Rush Limbaughs and Ann Coulters. However, I frankly don't see it.

A Strong Case for Obama from Philly Daily News

Here's a strong case for Barack Obama from the Philadelphia Daily News.

A candidate's campaign may be the best indicator of how she or he will
govern. If so, an Obama administration would be well-managed, inclusive and
astonishingly broad-based. It would make good use of technology and communicate
a message of unity and, yes, hope.

It would not be content with eking out slim victories by playing to the narrow interests of the swing voters of the moment while leaving the rest of the country as deeply divided as ever. Instead, an Obama administration would seek to expand the number of Americans who believe that they have a personal stake in our collective future - and that they have the power to change things.

It would motivate them to hold their representatives accountable for making it happen. That is, after all, the only way to get us out of Iraq, to address global warming, to make us energy-independent. It's the only way to resist the forces arrayed against providing universal health care, rebuilding our infrastructure and returning our schools to world-class status. It's the only way to give our children the means to compete with children in other parts of the world who are healthier,
better-educated and have more opportunities than many of our own.

An Obama administration would be freer of the the corrupting influence of big-money donors and corporate interests. Obama has raised $240 million overall, with half coming in contributions of less than $200. People who contribute to political
campaigns can feel they "own" a candidate and so Obama would owe allegiance to
the wide swath of America that has financed his campaign.

Based on his experience in running a quarter-billion-dollar enterprise with thousands upon thousands of volunteers, we could expect an Obama administration to be
well-managed and cost-effective, with the president choosing forward-thinking
advisers committed to his program, demanding that they work as a team and pay
attention to details.

He would be steady and calm, given neither to irrational exuberance or outbursts of anger. He would make mistakes, that's for sure, but he could be expected to recognize them, adjust, and move forward. He would adjust his views to reality rather than trying to adjust reality to his views.

Obama's unprecedented appeal to younger voters is significant not only because it expands the electorate, which is vital. It's also a validation of his promise as a president to be free of the baby-boomer/Vietnam/segregation-era hangups.

Younger people are more egalitarian, more accepting of diversity, and more comfortable with rapid change. They also are less confined by old resentments or regrets.

AND AN OBAMA administration would lower the tone of the rhetoric that separates us.

As New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has said, Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who has the skill and eloquence to help us raise our eyes and our aspirations beyond individual, personal concerns, beyond religion or region or race or gender, beyond our well-founded fears to a shared destiny.

Most candidates claim that they will change the way business is done in Washington. Barack Obama has made us believe that, yes, he can. *

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

The Pope and the War Criminal

In Search of . . . I'm still looking for someone among my Catholic friends in Morehead who's interested in the Pope's visit. Maybe he's not that inspirational of a leader.

Meeting with the War Criminal in Chief. It seems that Pope Benedict XVI met today with President Bush.
The festive White House visit was the highlight of the first full day of Benedict's first trip to the United States as leader of the world's Roman Catholics. A South Lawn arrival ceremony — which also turned into a celebration for Benedict's 81st birthday, complete with energetic singing and a several-tiered cake prepared by the White House pastry chef — was followed by 45 minutes of private talks between Bush and Benedict, alone in the Oval Office.

After the revelations about the approval of torture practices during "Principles Meetings" among Bush's top officials at the White House, Bush has about as much moral standing as Francisco Franco or Jefferson Davis. One can say that Benedict is endorsing Bush's war crimes by meeting with him. Unfortunately, one can also say that the whole country endorsed Bush's war crimes by re-electing him president in 2004.

Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, Colin Powell, John Ashcroft, and their principle assistants should all be prosecuted for their role in the post-9-11 war crimes of the American government.

But all of us as Americans should all be ashamed that these people were elected to the highest office in our country. That includes people who opposed the war, opposed Guantanamo, and opposed the torture. We also should have done better.

There's a great deal of reason to criticize the Catholic Church hierarchy for their hostility to the aspirations of women Catholics, their hatred of gay people, and their execrable involvement in the pedophilia scandal.

But American government hierarchy has done far worse.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Waiting for the Dandelions

The big event of spring has almost arrived--the Dandelion Bloom. With pure yellow petals surrounding a golden inner ring, dandelions are a beautiful plant and are in fact hard to surpass when they're in full bloom. But what makes dandelions great is the quality for which they're so much despised--their super-tough hardiness. When the dandelions bloom, they're everywhere and no amount of spraying and digging can get rid of them.

People think of dandelions as weeds because they're so plentiful and because they don't need any human cultivation. But that's just a reflection of the grip of the middle-class sense of order on our minds. The fact that dandelions are everywhere does not diminish their beauty a single degree.

In fact, I would argue that the blanketing of yards with dandelions adds a major element to the beauty of the spring--

If only people could see an uncultivated multitude as beautiful.

The Audit is Done!!

Finally, the academic audit for the Government Program. After going through all the materials, I felt very optimistic about the Government Program and rated it highly.

But maybe I'm not an unbiased observer.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Is the Pope Dope?

The answer is Nope. Pope Benedict XVI is visiting the U. S. this week and my Catholic household has reacted by . . . not saying, doing, or seemingly thinking anything about it. RSI the atheist brought up the Pope's visit to Mrs. RSI but she was profoundly uninterested. Miss Teen RSI didn't know the Pope was coming at all because it wasn't on Jon Stewart. Ten year old Miss Tween RSI was moved to say "Yeah its all right" when queried.

According to Mrs. RSI, there was an item in last month's church bulletin about the Pope, but the local parish isn't exactly motivated by his visit either.

The problem is this. Mrs. RSI is a liberal Catholic who wants to remain Catholic despite her disgust with the Catholic Church over their refusal to let women serve as priests, their position on gay rights, and their general conservatism. If Mrs. RSI is forced to think about the highly conservative Pope, she'd most likely start wondering if she should attend another church.

Given that there's no hope for the pope, it's probably good for the Catholic Church that people like Mrs. RSI aren't paying attention. Otherwise, a lot of liberal Catholics would just leave the church.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Regrets: I've Had a Few

I regret that I haven't done much blogging this week.

Too much auditing to really blog.

But not as much as I regret that I didn't write anything about the flower pear trees of Morehead, KY while they were still flowering.

Morehead had a really beautiful white bloom of flowering pear trees this year. It was especially great at twilight.

But now the flowers are wilting and the seemingly ordinary green leaves have taken over.

But they won't be ordinary forever.

The leaves of the flowering pear tree change to a distinctive blood red at the end of the fall and the leaves of the flowering pear tend to change more unevenly than other trees.

The result is rows of flowering pear trees with red and green leaf patterns from the unequal changes. I thought I saw Dick Cheney's smirk in one of the flowering pear trees last year--the same smirk he used when he said Iraq would have 1,000 years of Democracy--or was that war.

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Iraq's Getting Worse

The testimony from Petraeus is in, but the verdict is still the same. Despite the ability of American troops to suppress much of the violence, the situation continues to deteriorate. The bottom line is that the actions of the Iraqi government against the Mahdi Army have driven Iraq toward a civil war between the American-backed Government and the Shiite population as a whole. This isn't to deny that the surge led to some progress, but the progress is coming at the expense of an ever bigger future explosion.

Monday, April 07, 2008

Charlton Heston's Ashes

Too bad about Charlton Heston's death. Dying's usually a hard thing and Heston has been deteriorating for a long time.

It just so happens that I watched the first Planet of the Apes on Saturday. Interestingly, it was the boundlesssness of human desire that led Heston to undertake his space flight as a way to seek something "better than man." It was that some boundlessness that Heston's ape antagonist viewed as being responsible for humankind's demise as a species.

But I don't think human desire is boundless. Outside of European societies of the last four or five hundred years, evidence of that kind of limitless desire is relatively scarce.

In today's "advanced" societies, it's more the case that social authorities actually "bind" us by stimulating our desires in consumerist directions.

In contemporary American the more we desire, the more constrained we are.

Sunday, April 06, 2008

Auditing My Brains Out

It's spring, but blogging isn't really in the air at Red State Impressions. I'm working my brains out on the academic audit for the Government Program and haven't been able to think much about blogging. It's even worse with piano playing. I haven't looked at it for a week.

Saturday, April 05, 2008

How Big Are the Bucks for Hill and Bill?

Yesterday, it came out that Hillary and Bill Clinton had made $109 million altogether since Bill Clinton left office.

But that's hardly surprising. Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton both wrote bestselling memoirs and --well, let's face it--they've both had interesting lives to write about.

Likewise it's not surprising that Bill Clinton has made a ton of money in public speaking or that his friends have brought him into lucrative investments. Bill's the kind of charismatic guy who draws people to him like a magnet. His friends push great investment opportunities his way, corporations want to hear him speak, and everybody wants to contribute to his charities.

What is surprising is that Bill and Hillary Clinton waited so long to cash in on their talent.

The news media and casual observers think that going into politics is a natural thing. But that's not the case at all. Most people at the upper level of government are smart, driven people who would have still been famous and still made a ton of money if they hadn't been involved in politics. Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Dick Cheney, Newt Gingrich, and Tom DeLay are all people who sacrificed an enormous amount of wealth by going into politics as young men and women. If Bill and Hillary Clinton had gone to New York instead of Arkansas in 1973 and worked in corporate law rather than Arkansas state government from 1978 to 1993, their joint wealth would probably be closer to the $1,000,000,000 level than the paltry hundred million they have now. With Bill's charisma, it's easy to imagine that people proposing deals for mergers, leveraged buyouts, and IPO's would have flown to his office as easily as the robins and blue jays fly outside my window. If Bill Clinton's friends are letting him in on lucrative deals how, how many lucrative deals would he have had in the 80's and 90's.

The same with Hillary. She was a highly successful lawyer in Arkansas before Bill became president. She would have been a lot more successful in New York.

But instead of rainmaking in the Big Apple, Hillary and Bill started climbing the political ladder. Instead of being worth a few hundred million in 1992, Bill Clinton was making $35,000 as Governor of Arkansas.

As in so many things, the Bush administration is somewhat of an exception here. Geore Bush was even a bigger failure as a businessman than he's been as President.

But being a successful politician usually involves an enormous amount of financial sacrifice and Hillary and Bill Clinton have sacrificed more than just about anybody.

Friday, April 04, 2008

MLK Assasination Day

MLK. It's hard to believe that MLK wouldn't have been distressed by developments in the U. S. since the 1960's. It's hard to tell which is worse. There's the isolation of large segments of the black population in deteriorating ghettos, the explosion of homelessness, the crack cocaine epidemic, and the incarceration of so many young black men. But there's also the fact that so much moderate opinion supports the excesses of American militarism, Wall Street greed, and color-blind racism. King wrote in "Letter From Birmingham Jail" that he was more bothered by white "moderates" than he was by the Bull Connors of the world. He would be just as disappointed today.

Mariah Carey. With the release of the first single from her new album, Mariah Carey now has more no. 1 hits than Elvis Presley. I saw an interview in which Carey, now 38, demurred that she had not had nearly the impact of performers like Presley, the Beatles, or Madonna. That's true, but Mariah Carey also deserves a lot of credit for recovering from her recent breakdown and getting back to the top of her game. It's tough for people to drag themselves out of that kind of chasm and it's good to see that Carey was able to do it.

The Tree Down Front. There's a tree in the neighbor's front yard with a super bloom of white flowers. Spring in Morehead is unbelievably beautify and a variety of brightly colored flowers are beginning to bloom. It's great.

As Hope Becomes Expectation. The violence and hatred that killed Martin Luther King are endemic to American society and are best represented by the strength of the activist right-wing in American politics. But I believe that the will to create a better society is once again gaining strength and I'm looking forward to seeing a renewal of the kind of social progress that was accomplished in King's time.

Thursday, April 03, 2008

Auditing, Vision, Dean, and Provost

Hey, Morehead State's academic audit is not such a bad thing after all. Yesterday, I was talking the audit over with a friend when the Muse or my patron saint or the spirit of John Dewey visited me and I suddenly had a vision for turning Morehead State University's "regional studies" institute into a "global outreach" organization.

I don't remember the details that well, but it was a beautiful thing.

This means that I need to broaden my horizons. I used to think of my self as a good candidate for chair positions. However, now that I have had my "vision," I've achieved the most important qualification for being a college dean. At least that's what administrative candidates get asked when they do campus interviews. "What's your vision for this?" What's your vision for that? Given that my accomplishment as an educational visionary will soon be transmitted over whatever "vision network" connects small universities, the offers for exciting new dean positions will start coming in.

My life is going to change forever.

Of course, I'll be ready to be a provost when I start getting credit for other people's visions.

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Criticism of Right-Wing Masculinity: We Need More!

On Right-Wing Masculinity. Liberal bloggers like Glenn Greenwald and Digby argue that the right-wing has perfected a political narrative in which conservatives are conveyed in terms of down-to-earth, regular guy, masculinity and liberals as effete, feminized, and over-educated. Here's Greenwald characterizing his new book on the topic:
The Right has perfected the art of creating mythical cults of personality around their leaders. They are strong, courageous, honor-bound, protective, morally upstanding salt-of-the earth Everyman-warriors -- contemptuous of elitist prerogatives, and oozing traditional masculine virtues and cultural normalcy. As important, if not more so, is the corresponding character demonization of liberals, Democrats and a growing group of miscellaneous right-wing opponents -- those weak, subversive, conniving, appeasing, gender-confused, elitist freaks, whose men are as effeminate and cowardly as their women are angry, threatening and emasculating.

There's a strong sense in which Greenwald is correct here. But all he does is go out in claim that the right-wing narrative is false.

These election-determinant themes are not merely petty and completely removed from what actually matters. That would be bad enough. Far worse is that they are
complete fabrications. Virtually the entire leadership of the right-wing GOP is the complete opposite of these cartoon icons they are held out to be. Their lives are almost completely devoid of the virtues in which they are packaged. After all, their leaders are Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich, Dick Cheney, George Bush, Ann Coulter, Bill Kristol and the whole slew of tough guy pundits from Fox News and National Review, cheering on wars while imputing to themselves the courage and virtue of those they endlessly send off to fight and prancing around as moral guardians and defenders of individual freedom while, in reality, living lives that rapidly destroy those very values.

But proving that the right-wing is lying doesn't get the job done in the sense that Greenwald and other liberal bloggers have not gotten through the media clutter to make their case before the non-liberal public.

Of course, there are several sources for the failure of liberal blogging in this instance. Liberal bloggers are not as popular or entertaining as right-wing figures like Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter. Likewise, mainstream media outlets like NPR, CNN, and MSNBC view figures like Greenwald as deadly competition for their secular, culturally liberal audiences and do their best to keep them off the air. Greenwald has a better chance of getting featured on Fox than PBS.

However, it's also true that Greenwald and the other liberal bloggers don't produce enough "truth" about masculinity and the right to outweigh the "entertainment" value of the right-wing narrative.

The right-wing not only does not embody it's own masculine values, but the right has its own patterns of masculinity that is so pathetic that it almost defies characterization. Liberal bloggers have been scratching the surface of right-wing macho. We have to get to its beating heart.

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Making the Republic Whole, Giving Birth to General Freedom

Condoleeza Rice had an interesting comment on race the other day.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday that the United States still has trouble dealing with race because of a national "birth defect" that denied blacks the same opportunities as whites when the country was founded.
But I don't think that quite works.

Abraham Lincoln came closer to the mark when he talked about the Civil War as a "new birth of freedom." The war resulted in the emancipation of the black slaves and also a broader understanding of freedom to include people of African descent as well as whites. Unfortunately, that new birth of freedom was ultimately defeated with the end of Reconstruction.

As a result, another "new birth of freedom" become necessary. In many ways, that was the inner meaning of the Civil Rights Movement of the fifties and sixties.

Over the years, I've gradually come to the conclusion that the efforts of the African-American population to overcome the many legacies of slavery have done much more to define the nature of American democracy than George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and the other men who are now known as the Founding Fathers.

The founding generation created a Republic, but it was disabled by slavery and consequently required repeated "new births of freedom" which were carried out more than anyone else by the work of figures like Frederick Douglass, Martin Luther King, and other African-Americans.

One of the characteristics of the new birth of freedom in the 1960's is that the work of the Civil Rights movement was extended by the later advent of feminism and gay rights. Despite resistance, the forty years since then have been characterized by a constant and broad-based effort to expand the 60's new birth of freedom to include everyone. Because "freedom isn't free," people in general need to generate a continual effort to give birth to a society of broad-based freedom.

It's only then that we'll be able to say that we've overcome the legacy of slavery.