The Clark Gable Look. The local Hillary campaign set up a table on the Morehead State campus last week and I walked away with a Hillary sign. But I felt like Rhett Butler joining the Confederate Army after they lost the Battle of Atlanta. The big 14 point loss in North Carolina meant that Hillary can't get the nomination as long as Barack Obama stays alive, isn't arrested for a felony, or hasn't been messing around with Congressional pages. Hillary's best hope was that the Obama campaign would deflate when Obama was pressed by the combination of his own bitter people gaffe, the Jeremiah Wright issue, and Hillary's criticism.
But the collapse didn't happen. So, Obama is going to win barring unforeseen contingencies.
Having said that, I don't blame Hillary for continuing to campaign any more than I blame a top athlete like Michael Jordan or Sugar Ray Leonard for coming back too many times. If Hillary didn't have a huge ego and an irrational determination, she wouldn't haven't gotten where she and I don't see any reason for her to drop out until she herself sees that it's over. Likewise, I'm going to vote for Hillary in the Democratic primary here in Kentucky and probably will still post some Hillary-friendly blog items.
But it's pretty clear that the Democratic Primary has entered the end game with Barack Obama at an overwhelming advantage.
Why Did She Lose? I saw an item in Matthew Yglesias about Hillary losing because of her 2002 vote authorizing the war. I don't think that's the case. Hillary's initial support was always fragile and dropped dramatically as a result of her own illegal immigration misstep, her MLK gaffe, and Bill's idiotic comments after the South Carolina primary. The question was whether Hillary could have done anything to make her support more solid going into the Iowa caucuses. I'm not so sure. The Obama people ran a very effective campaign and Obama himself did an excellent job of dealing with crises as they came up. True, the Hillary campaign could have done things better, but Hillary's toughness and tenacity didn't come into focus until she fell behind decisively and had to start really fighting. Given all the mainstream media scepticism, her "Bill" baggage, and the doubts among Democratic elites, I'm not sure that even the best campaign could have solidified her support. In my opinion, Hillary's main weakness was that her initial support was only a couple of inches deep.
Hillary for VP. I don't think that Obama is going to nominate Hillary Clinton for VP but I would respect him a lot more if he did. Obama is not likely to nominate her because Hillary did run an aggressive campaign against him, it might be difficult to imagine Hillary as a member of the Obama team, and Vice-President Hillary Clinton would still be married to her undisciplined husband. But Hillary also brings several advantages to the vice-presidency. In fact, Hillary now connects with white women and white working-class guys whose votes Obama. Likely, she has already shown that she can be a team-player in someone else's administration. Hillary's also very knowledgeable of the federal bureaucracy, has a lot of connections among possible nominees for Supreme Court positions, and has a strong national defense profile. Finally, a Hillary nomination would create a surge of initial momentum for the general election campaign that might put John McCain permanently on the defensive.
An Obama/Hillary ticket would be the strongest ticket for the Democrats in terms of both electability and governance.
And if something happened to Obama, Hillary would be ready to step in on Day 1.
Well, anyway. She'd be ready.
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9 comments:
The Clintons are at their best when they are on the ropes. Depend upon it. Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the 44th President of The United States.
Your defeatist attitude notwithstanding, you are very much in the right to post "Hillary-Friendly" comments and to remain a steadfast supporter. That kind of loyalty is rare. It is especially scarce among the cut-and-run cowards who make up the party's superdelegates. They sicken me.
I could see the comment about "cut and run cowards" if Hillary's opponent was a closet conservative like Joe Lieberman or Jay Rockefeller. But I don't see that with Barack Obama. He's an excellent candidate who's shown a lot of brains, guts, and organizational capacity during this campaign. I've always thought that the choice between Obama and Hillary was a choice between two positives and I'll be glad to support him after Hillary's (more or less) inevitable withdrawal
"Strong national defense profile?"
Based on what? Her experience dodging sniper fire in Bosnia?
You must be in the "bargaining" stage of grief, Ric.
I've hung with Hillary as long as I can, despite generally preferring Obama's thoughtful approach to politics and policy (see the race speech from Philly). I was willing to stick with her in spite of Bill's racial comments and her trainwreck of a campaign. But after her no-longer-subtle race-baiting last week ("working, hard-working Americans, white Americans"), I can't stomach her any more. She is not going to win, and these tactics aren't anything but spiteful and divisive.
After sitting through church sermons telling me that it is un-Christian for a woman to be president, there is nothing I wanted more than to have a Democratic woman lead this country. But not at this price.
-Amanda M.
Are you getting these Hillary talking points straight from her website, Ric?
Hillary can't get the nomination as long as Barack Obama stays alive, isn't arrested for a felony, or hasn't been messing around with Congressional pages.
Since when are felonies or sexual misconducts considered detrimental to Democrats?
Dying would be a problem, being from Chicago he could still vote, but it might be tough actually getting elected.
B Moe
I only said that Obama needs to stay alive to get the Democratic nomination. I'm not so sure he needs to stay alive to beat McCain.
As for sexual issues, Eliot Spitzer was certainly an embarrassment for the Dems. But conservative Republicans politicians hold an insurmountable lead in the sexual misconduct race. I suspect it will be the only thing they win in 2008.
By the way, how much money have you given to McCain so far?
No money for McCain, I don't like him at all. I am watching Bob Barr with considerable interest, as a matter of fact.
B Moe
Yeah, I'm looking to Barr to help Obama stretch out his lead. Maybe he can pull down one or two percent of the "libertarians against abortion rights, gay marriage, and immigration" vote.
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