I was devastated to learn today that I have been BANNED from the right-wing blog Protein Wisdom. Last year, I defeated Protein Wisdom blogger Jeff Goldstein in a debate on race. Poor Goldstein. He got completely sidetracked by my sophisticated pose as a college professor. It threw him entirely off his game. That and the fact that he's not nearly as talented as his many pronouncements indicate.
But this is the ultimate triumph--having such an big impact that I'm banned from Goldstein's blog. Maybe he can send me a plaque to honor the occasion. I'm at Ric Caric/ Department of Geography, Government, & History/Morehead State University, Morehead, KY 40351.
All kidding aside, maybe it's for the best. Goldstein is a high strung, insecure guy who's pretty unhappy with the way things have worked out so far in his life. I wouldn't want my teasing comments on Protein Wisdom to be the thing that drove Goldstein off his nut. I wouldn't be able to forgive myself if I were the guy who triggered Goldstein into blowing away the Obama supporters at his local coffee shop.
You know, he's an "Outlaw" now .
Peace, Jeff--it'll work out in the end.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
A Little Self-Delusion on the Right
Conservative commentator Michael Barone isn't impressed by Obama's win and doesn't think that people on the left were particularly overwhelmed either.
Barone seems to think that Democrats were expecting a huge landslide. But the fact was that "hope" for victory only solidified into "expectation" of victory on the day before the election. Active Democrats were expecting one last slime attack on Obama, still wondered if whites were that solid on an African-American president, and were still haunted by the 2000 and 2004 campaigns. So, it wasn't exactly as if confidence was high the weekend before the election.
But the polls on Monday, Nov. 3 showed an uptick for Obama and everybody started to become more confident. Friends started telling RSI they were no expecting Obama to win while RSI himself started telling students and colleagues that he expected the election to be decided in Obama's favor by 10pm or 11.
When the expectations actually started panning out, Atrios summed up a lot of feelings by blogging "holy shit" several times. People were stunned that they had been right about the election, stunned that Obama had run such a near-perfect campaign, and stunned that it had all worked out so well.
Democrats expected Obama to win, but the election was much more than they had allowed themselves to hope for. A lot of people cried to see it. Magic Johnson cried all night long. Mrs. RSI cried throughout Obama's terrific victory speech.
Obama's six point win was not exactly what conservatives like Barone feared, but it was exactly what Democrats were hoping for.
How to defeat terrorist enemies sheltered in the territory of our putative ally Pakistan. How to live up to the high expectations so visible in the cheering and tearful faces in those crowds in Berlin, Invesco Field and Grant Park -- after a victory that was thrilling, but not quite what the Democrats hoped for.Needless to say, Barone doesn't know what he's talking about because he doesn't talk much with "real-time" Democrats. But I do and there was pretty much a consensus around a six-point win by the time the final voting began on Tuesday. Poll analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com is particularly among the left because he's so accurate and because he was a popular DailyKos diarist. Silver's model predicted the six point win that Obama got. So did RSI and one of RSI's colleagues at Morehead State University.
Barone seems to think that Democrats were expecting a huge landslide. But the fact was that "hope" for victory only solidified into "expectation" of victory on the day before the election. Active Democrats were expecting one last slime attack on Obama, still wondered if whites were that solid on an African-American president, and were still haunted by the 2000 and 2004 campaigns. So, it wasn't exactly as if confidence was high the weekend before the election.
But the polls on Monday, Nov. 3 showed an uptick for Obama and everybody started to become more confident. Friends started telling RSI they were no expecting Obama to win while RSI himself started telling students and colleagues that he expected the election to be decided in Obama's favor by 10pm or 11.
When the expectations actually started panning out, Atrios summed up a lot of feelings by blogging "holy shit" several times. People were stunned that they had been right about the election, stunned that Obama had run such a near-perfect campaign, and stunned that it had all worked out so well.
Democrats expected Obama to win, but the election was much more than they had allowed themselves to hope for. A lot of people cried to see it. Magic Johnson cried all night long. Mrs. RSI cried throughout Obama's terrific victory speech.
Obama's six point win was not exactly what conservatives like Barone feared, but it was exactly what Democrats were hoping for.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Socialism from Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama
Conservatives can't make up their mind whether Barack Obama is going to be a "center-right" president or a socialist. Establishment Republicans like Karl Rove and David Brooks say "center-right." Wack job Michael Reagan says socialism.
Who to believe?
The Obama administration will probably propose these items:
1. an economic stimulus package focused on building infrastructure and creating new jobs;
2 a national health insurance system;
3. a new system of regulations for the financial system;
4. beefed up environmental and consumer legislation.
I'll eat my copy of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations if that's a "center-right agenda." The socialism question is a little more tricky. It depends on what you're talking about when you use the terms capitalism and socialism. If we're talking about "actually existing capitalism" (to use a Marxist term), then Obama and the Dems are just as committed to preserving capitalism as the Bush administration. The Bush administration was so committed to preserving actually existing capitalism from depression that they went against their own principles and at least partially took over investment companies, insurance companies, and banking system. Those can be called "socialist" measures because they involve government taking control over sections of private business. But it's socialism in defense of capitalism.
An Obama administration would do the same.
But Michael Reagan sees capitalism in terms of an ideal laissez faire economic system with no government interference outside enforcing laws against theft and fraud. From this kind of pie in the sky perspective, "socialism" is any kind of government involvement in the economic system and the U. S. has become more and more of a socialist country since the Teddy Roosevelt administration.
From this perspective, the Obama administration would be a socialist government if they did so little as raise the taxes of the wealthy by 3%.
If this is socialism, so be it. Capitalism served as a prop for feudalism for centuries before free markets became dominant. Who's to say that socialism can't serve as a prop for capitalism until there isn't very much capitalism to prop up any more.
Here's to socialism in defense of capitalism--the best of both systems.
At least for now.
Who to believe?
The Obama administration will probably propose these items:
1. an economic stimulus package focused on building infrastructure and creating new jobs;
2 a national health insurance system;
3. a new system of regulations for the financial system;
4. beefed up environmental and consumer legislation.
I'll eat my copy of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations if that's a "center-right agenda." The socialism question is a little more tricky. It depends on what you're talking about when you use the terms capitalism and socialism. If we're talking about "actually existing capitalism" (to use a Marxist term), then Obama and the Dems are just as committed to preserving capitalism as the Bush administration. The Bush administration was so committed to preserving actually existing capitalism from depression that they went against their own principles and at least partially took over investment companies, insurance companies, and banking system. Those can be called "socialist" measures because they involve government taking control over sections of private business. But it's socialism in defense of capitalism.
An Obama administration would do the same.
But Michael Reagan sees capitalism in terms of an ideal laissez faire economic system with no government interference outside enforcing laws against theft and fraud. From this kind of pie in the sky perspective, "socialism" is any kind of government involvement in the economic system and the U. S. has become more and more of a socialist country since the Teddy Roosevelt administration.
From this perspective, the Obama administration would be a socialist government if they did so little as raise the taxes of the wealthy by 3%.
If this is socialism, so be it. Capitalism served as a prop for feudalism for centuries before free markets became dominant. Who's to say that socialism can't serve as a prop for capitalism until there isn't very much capitalism to prop up any more.
Here's to socialism in defense of capitalism--the best of both systems.
At least for now.
Protein Wisdom Does Dillinger
Protein Wisdom has become the blog home for right-wing bitterness over Obama's election as president. Here's Jeff Goldstein doing a full Dillinger in protest (quoted in full).
What a rebel!Another moment of unabashed OUTLAW pragmatism
Sure, I know I’m supposed to break down cardboard boxes before I put them in the recycle bin. But fuck it, I took a chance.And if the truck decides it doesn’t want to pick ‘em up as is, those boxes can sit there in the street until they become moldy or weather shredded — or home to a family of angry bobcats, for all I care.
It ain’t like my name’s on the things.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
The Offer to Lieberman
Harry Reid has given Joe Lieberman an offer that he shouldn't refuse but probably will. Reid seems to have told Lieberman that he wants to strip the Connecticut senator of his seat as chair of the Homeland Security Committee and give him a sub-committee to chair instead.
That's fairly generous.
Lieberman campaigned enthusiastically for John McCain, vociferously complains about being abandoned by the Democratic Party, and talks all the time about switching to the Republicans. As a result, there's a good argument for booting Lieberman out of the Democratic Senate caucus altogether.
Instead, Reid is indicating that Lieberman can no longer have a prominent function as a member of the Democratic caucus without going out of his way to be punitive.
That seems about right.
Committee chairmanships are determined by party in the U. S. Senate and Joe Lieberman is far from being a Democrat in good standing. He can't be chair of something as important as the Homeland Security Committee.
But Lieberman can be chair of something and Senate sub-committees still do a lot of important work.
But Lieberman probably won't accept. He's been bitter about the Democratic Party ever since he got nowhere with his 2004 presidential run. McCain's loss just increases the bitterness.
Maybe Reid and Lieberman will work out some sort of deal, but it's likely that Lieberman will bolt to the Republicans before the Senate starts its new session in January.
I can't say I'll miss him.
That's fairly generous.
Lieberman campaigned enthusiastically for John McCain, vociferously complains about being abandoned by the Democratic Party, and talks all the time about switching to the Republicans. As a result, there's a good argument for booting Lieberman out of the Democratic Senate caucus altogether.
Instead, Reid is indicating that Lieberman can no longer have a prominent function as a member of the Democratic caucus without going out of his way to be punitive.
That seems about right.
Committee chairmanships are determined by party in the U. S. Senate and Joe Lieberman is far from being a Democrat in good standing. He can't be chair of something as important as the Homeland Security Committee.
But Lieberman can be chair of something and Senate sub-committees still do a lot of important work.
But Lieberman probably won't accept. He's been bitter about the Democratic Party ever since he got nowhere with his 2004 presidential run. McCain's loss just increases the bitterness.
Maybe Reid and Lieberman will work out some sort of deal, but it's likely that Lieberman will bolt to the Republicans before the Senate starts its new session in January.
I can't say I'll miss him.
The Republicans: a White People's Party
My crude math indicates that 96% of the Republican vote came from whites. That makes the Republicans a white people's party. That's not the same as being THE white people's party. Making up almost 75% of the population, whites were also 64% of Obama's vote. But Obama's support came from a multi-racial, multi-ethnic coalition. McCain relied almost entirely on the white vote.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Sympathy for Conservatives
I have to admit that I feel a little sorry for conservatives right now. CNN has a report about conservative bloggers and pundits meeting soon to figure out a way forward.
Personally, I can't think of any element of conservatism that does not stand repudiated. Here's a few examples.
Small Government Conservatism--There can be no doubt that small government conservatism stands repudiated. There's three bottom lines here. The American public wants more government not less. The American public wanted government to resolve the financial meltdown and the American public wants more government regulation of the financial sector rather than less.
Market Approaches to government programs. Privatizing social security and medical accounts approaches to health care have been rejected as well. McCain's "market approach" to health insurance is one of the reasons why he lost and he would have lost by a lot more if he had really pushed social security privatizaation.
Religious and social conservatives. Add Sarah Palin to the long list of things that the public rejects about religious conservatism that includes the Terry Schiavo case, the attack on evolutionary theory, opposition to stem cell research, and opposition to the morning after pill and contraception. But the ultimate repudiation of social and religious conservativism is still on the horizon. Gay rights lost in California yesterday, but it's pretty obvious that gay marriage is going to eventually be legal all over the country.
Neo-conservative foreign policy. Even with the relative success of the surge, the American public still broadly rejects the Iraq War and wants American troops out of Iraq. And it isn't just that the public has repudiated the Bush administration's conduct of the war. The public has long concluded that the invasion itself was wrong.
Maybe I'm missing important dimensions of conservatism, but those are the four pillars of conservatism as I know them.
But the situation is actually worse.
The American public is also beginning to reject some of the secondary elements of conservatism. Let me just name a few.
1. Their instinctive belligerence.
2. The use of racial stereotyping and innuendo in conservative political campaigns.
3. The hostility of conservative constituencies to African-Americans, Hispanics, gay people, and other minorities.
In my opinion, the rejection of conservativism by the American public is so thorough and so energetic that what conservatives really need to do is rethink their sense in which they're American.
The rest of the country is moving away from conservatives so fast that they really need to grapple with their sense of how they're connected to the rest of American society. To the right, conservatives are the only "real" Americans.
On Thursday, a group of prominent conservatives, including political and media strategists, will meet in Virginia to discuss just that. Media reports suggest a group of 20 people will talk about what the party needs to do in a Democrat-dominated government and what must be done in order to avoid a third cycle of defeats for Republicans in the next midterm elections.I wish them well, but I think it's going to take awhile for the enormity of the Republican and conservative defeat to sink in. Setting a new direction will be a whole different issue.
Personally, I can't think of any element of conservatism that does not stand repudiated. Here's a few examples.
Small Government Conservatism--There can be no doubt that small government conservatism stands repudiated. There's three bottom lines here. The American public wants more government not less. The American public wanted government to resolve the financial meltdown and the American public wants more government regulation of the financial sector rather than less.
Market Approaches to government programs. Privatizing social security and medical accounts approaches to health care have been rejected as well. McCain's "market approach" to health insurance is one of the reasons why he lost and he would have lost by a lot more if he had really pushed social security privatizaation.
Religious and social conservatives. Add Sarah Palin to the long list of things that the public rejects about religious conservatism that includes the Terry Schiavo case, the attack on evolutionary theory, opposition to stem cell research, and opposition to the morning after pill and contraception. But the ultimate repudiation of social and religious conservativism is still on the horizon. Gay rights lost in California yesterday, but it's pretty obvious that gay marriage is going to eventually be legal all over the country.
Neo-conservative foreign policy. Even with the relative success of the surge, the American public still broadly rejects the Iraq War and wants American troops out of Iraq. And it isn't just that the public has repudiated the Bush administration's conduct of the war. The public has long concluded that the invasion itself was wrong.
Maybe I'm missing important dimensions of conservatism, but those are the four pillars of conservatism as I know them.
But the situation is actually worse.
The American public is also beginning to reject some of the secondary elements of conservatism. Let me just name a few.
1. Their instinctive belligerence.
2. The use of racial stereotyping and innuendo in conservative political campaigns.
3. The hostility of conservative constituencies to African-Americans, Hispanics, gay people, and other minorities.
In my opinion, the rejection of conservativism by the American public is so thorough and so energetic that what conservatives really need to do is rethink their sense in which they're American.
The rest of the country is moving away from conservatives so fast that they really need to grapple with their sense of how they're connected to the rest of American society. To the right, conservatives are the only "real" Americans.
Henry Louis Gates on Obama's Victory
One of the black people who came out of hiding was Henry Louis Gates, a prominent African-American literary scholar and public figure at Harvard University.
Gates has a post on The Root from which I'm drawing this excerpt. I might have some commentary at some point but for now I'll just reprint this inspired piece of writing:
Gates has a post on The Root from which I'm drawing this excerpt. I might have some commentary at some point but for now I'll just reprint this inspired piece of writing:
How many of our ancestors have given their lives—how many millions of slaves toiled in the fields in endlessly thankless and mindless labor—before this generation could live to see a black person become president? "How long, Lord?" the spiritual goes; "not long!" is the resounding response. What would Frederick Douglass and W.E.B. Du Bois say if they could know what our people had at long last achieved? What ould Sojourner Truth and Harriet Tubman say? What would Dr. King himself say? Would they say that all those lost hours of brutalizing toil and labor leading to spent, half-fulfilled lives, all those humiliations that our ancestors had to suffer through each and every day, all those slights and rebuffs and recriminations, all those rapes and murders, lynchings and assassinations, all those Jim Crow laws and protest marches, those snarling dogs and bone-breaking water hoses, all of those beatings and all of those killings, all of those black collective dreams deferred—that the unbearable pain of all of those tragedies had, in the end, been assuaged at least somewhat through Barack Obama's election? This certainly doesn't wipe that bloody slate clean. His victory is not redemption for all of this suffering; rather, it is the symbolic culmination of the black freedom struggle, the grand achievement of a great, collective dream. Would they say that surviving these horrors, hope against hope, was the price we had to pay to become truly free, to live to see—exactly 389 years after the first African slaves landed on these shores—that "great gettin' up morning" in 2008 when a black man—Barack Hussein Obama—was elected the first African-American president of the United States?
I think they would, resoundingly and with one voice proclaim, "Yes! Yes! And yes, again!" I believe they would tell us that it had been worth the price that we, collectively, have had to pay—the price of President-elect Obama's ticket.
Black People Emerge From Hiding
I remember a writer from an African-American blog saying in June that black people needed to shut up until the election was over.
Come to think of it, black people pretty much did go into hiding during the general election campaign.
But now that Obama's won, African-Americans are coming out of the racial closet and are pretty damn happy about it.
Good for them. Good for us. Good for all of us.
Come to think of it, black people pretty much did go into hiding during the general election campaign.
But now that Obama's won, African-Americans are coming out of the racial closet and are pretty damn happy about it.
Good for them. Good for us. Good for all of us.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
The Almost Final Electoral College Look
It looks like Obama might take North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri. He's ahead in North Carolina and Indiana and only behind by one point in Missouri. If memory serves me right, the last area to report in Missouri is St. Louis where Obama could be expected to rack big majorities.
If Obama wins all four states, he would have 365 electoral votes to 156 for McCain.
Some notes:
1. No Social Conservatism here. If Obama wins Montana, that will be the only big surprise for a state win. But Obama's margins in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and New Mexico exceeded expectations. Pennsylvania is a special case with an 11 point Obama win. Obama rolled up more than a 450,000 vote margin in Philadelphia while also winning all of the inner ring of suburban Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery counties and most all of the second ring as well.
One has to wonder if McCain and Palin spending all that time in rural Pennsylvania actually hurt them by stimulating opposition in the metro areas.
2. Down to their last safe state. The Republicans only have one safe haven and one tossup on the Atlantic seaboard, with Georgia as the toss-up and South Carolina as the lonely Republican haven. The Republicans are in danger of becoming slipping from a regional party to a subregional party of part of the Old South, the Great Plains, and the more isolated Mountain States.
If Obama wins all four states, he would have 365 electoral votes to 156 for McCain.
Some notes:
1. No Social Conservatism here. If Obama wins Montana, that will be the only big surprise for a state win. But Obama's margins in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and New Mexico exceeded expectations. Pennsylvania is a special case with an 11 point Obama win. Obama rolled up more than a 450,000 vote margin in Philadelphia while also winning all of the inner ring of suburban Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery counties and most all of the second ring as well.
One has to wonder if McCain and Palin spending all that time in rural Pennsylvania actually hurt them by stimulating opposition in the metro areas.
2. Down to their last safe state. The Republicans only have one safe haven and one tossup on the Atlantic seaboard, with Georgia as the toss-up and South Carolina as the lonely Republican haven. The Republicans are in danger of becoming slipping from a regional party to a subregional party of part of the Old South, the Great Plains, and the more isolated Mountain States.
3. The Next Ultimate Journey. The Holy Grail of the Democratic Party used to be Florida. With Florida at least temporarily conquered, the target for Democratic aspirations will shift to Texas. The Republicans need to rethink.
Crude Emotional Reaction
Holy Shit! I saw it in the numbers. The electoral vote total is going to be in my range. But I couldn't believe Obama would win until Obama actually won. And I still don't believe it.
Live--Blogging 3, It's Over
CNN is projecting Obama as winning Ohio.
Now, Rudy Giuliani is on Fox saying "it ain't over till it's over."'
But it's over.
Now, Rudy Giuliani is on Fox saying "it ain't over till it's over."'
But it's over.
Live-Blogging--No. 2
CNN calls Senate races for Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Tom Udall in New Mexico. It's been called for Susan Collins from Maine as well. I was a year behind Collins at St. Lawrence during the early 70's.
Wolf Blitzer is back on the air and Obama has clinched 174 electoral votes to 49 for McCain.
But William Schneider is reminding me of why I don't miss television.
He's asking a question about the impact of race on the election but what he's saying would be a lot more significant if he had broken down "racial attitudes" by race.
The students sitting next to me start having a conversation about race. The consensus is that electing Obama will bring an early surge of white racism but that it would peter out.
Wolf Blitzer is back on the air and Obama has clinched 174 electoral votes to 49 for McCain.
But William Schneider is reminding me of why I don't miss television.
He's asking a question about the impact of race on the election but what he's saying would be a lot more significant if he had broken down "racial attitudes" by race.
The students sitting next to me start having a conversation about race. The consensus is that electing Obama will bring an early surge of white racism but that it would peter out.
Live-Blogging Election Night
I'm back on the Morehead State Campus where one of my colleagues has set up a multi-screen set-up for Election Watch.
Very Cool!
My first stop was at the campaign headquarters of my brother-in-law Tom Carew who was running for a city council seat in Morehead. Tom Carew is a very responsible and well-respected citizen in Eastern Kentucky. He won easily.
Bringing myself up to date:
Rocky Mountain High, Pennsylvania. Among the contested states, Obama has been declared the winner in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. With Obama winning in Pennsylvania, things get tough for McCain and that's why the crowd in Grants Park in Chicago is so loud. If McCain wants to win, he is going to have to get Colorado as well as all the toss-up states in order to win.
Personally, I don't see that.
If the rest of the election goes to form, Obama has already won.
Now we need to see if the rest of the election goes to form.
Very Cool!
My first stop was at the campaign headquarters of my brother-in-law Tom Carew who was running for a city council seat in Morehead. Tom Carew is a very responsible and well-respected citizen in Eastern Kentucky. He won easily.
Bringing myself up to date:
Rocky Mountain High, Pennsylvania. Among the contested states, Obama has been declared the winner in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. With Obama winning in Pennsylvania, things get tough for McCain and that's why the crowd in Grants Park in Chicago is so loud. If McCain wants to win, he is going to have to get Colorado as well as all the toss-up states in order to win.
Personally, I don't see that.
If the rest of the election goes to form, Obama has already won.
Now we need to see if the rest of the election goes to form.
Notes on a Potentially Breaking Wave
Some final thoughts as I wait for voting results to come in:
The Pennsylvania Tease. Pennsylvania has become somewhat of a holy grail for Republican presidential candidates. McCain put a lot of time and resources into Pennsylvania and there's been a lot of commentary about how desperately he needed the Keystone State after losing Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. But Bush also put considerable energy into Pennsylvania. The Republicans are constantly tempted by the Republican "T" that surrounds Philly and Pittsburgh with put a lot of conservatives and evangelicals. They'd also like to keep some beachhead in a Northeast that seems to be falling permanently out of their grasp. But the problem for the Republicans is that their social conservatism kills them in the Philly suburbs and Sarah Palin is a constant reminder of the GOP's social conservatism. Bush lost Pennsylvania by four in 2000 and two in 2004. McCain might fall even father behind this time.
Repudiating Rove? This election initially looked like a repudiation of Karl Rove's strategy of maximizing the party base and ignoring independents. But it didn't work out that way as neither candidate made the classic move from "primary partisanship" to "general election moderation" designed to appeal to moderate voters. The dynamic factor here was McCain. He never let up in his efforts to mobilize the Republican Party's conservative base and even brought out Dick Cheney as his campaign closer. But even more importantly, McCain moved Obama away from moderation by mocking him as an empty celebrity. By the time the conventions got started, Obama was just as much a partisan Democrat as Teddy Kennedy or Bill Clinton. If Obama wins as expected, it will be a result of the appeal of the progressive partisanship rather than the "One America" rhetoric he started with in 2007.
No Longer A Center-Right Nation? Charles Krauthammer, Newsweek, and just about anybody doesn't have a DailyKos diary is now reminding Barack Obama that the United States is a "center-right country" that doesn't like the "liberal agenda." Here's Krauthammer:
But Krauthammer might have a surprise coming. It's not just the Bush administration and the Republican Party that's being repudiated. The American public might be pushing the reject button on social and religious conservatism, hyper-aggressive neo-conservative foreign policy, anti-immigrant sentiment, and the heightened concentration of wealth. The broader public is getting fed up with talk radio and Fox as well. Rush Limbaugh is smart enough to know that moderates hate him, but the conservative establishment have yet to catch up with the fact that the American public is rejecting the conservative movement as well as the Republican Party. My own perception breaks down by race. The broader white public is ready to support progressive policies if it looks like they're going to work. Everybody else is willing to live with Obama's mistakes.
The Pennsylvania Tease. Pennsylvania has become somewhat of a holy grail for Republican presidential candidates. McCain put a lot of time and resources into Pennsylvania and there's been a lot of commentary about how desperately he needed the Keystone State after losing Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. But Bush also put considerable energy into Pennsylvania. The Republicans are constantly tempted by the Republican "T" that surrounds Philly and Pittsburgh with put a lot of conservatives and evangelicals. They'd also like to keep some beachhead in a Northeast that seems to be falling permanently out of their grasp. But the problem for the Republicans is that their social conservatism kills them in the Philly suburbs and Sarah Palin is a constant reminder of the GOP's social conservatism. Bush lost Pennsylvania by four in 2000 and two in 2004. McCain might fall even father behind this time.
Repudiating Rove? This election initially looked like a repudiation of Karl Rove's strategy of maximizing the party base and ignoring independents. But it didn't work out that way as neither candidate made the classic move from "primary partisanship" to "general election moderation" designed to appeal to moderate voters. The dynamic factor here was McCain. He never let up in his efforts to mobilize the Republican Party's conservative base and even brought out Dick Cheney as his campaign closer. But even more importantly, McCain moved Obama away from moderation by mocking him as an empty celebrity. By the time the conventions got started, Obama was just as much a partisan Democrat as Teddy Kennedy or Bill Clinton. If Obama wins as expected, it will be a result of the appeal of the progressive partisanship rather than the "One America" rhetoric he started with in 2007.
No Longer A Center-Right Nation? Charles Krauthammer, Newsweek, and just about anybody doesn't have a DailyKos diary is now reminding Barack Obama that the United States is a "center-right country" that doesn't like the "liberal agenda." Here's Krauthammer:
McCain is the quintessential center-right candidate. Yet the quintessential center-right country is poised to reject him. The hunger for anti-Republican catharsis and the blinding promise of Obamian hope are simply too strong. The reckoning comes in the morning.
But Krauthammer might have a surprise coming. It's not just the Bush administration and the Republican Party that's being repudiated. The American public might be pushing the reject button on social and religious conservatism, hyper-aggressive neo-conservative foreign policy, anti-immigrant sentiment, and the heightened concentration of wealth. The broader public is getting fed up with talk radio and Fox as well. Rush Limbaugh is smart enough to know that moderates hate him, but the conservative establishment have yet to catch up with the fact that the American public is rejecting the conservative movement as well as the Republican Party. My own perception breaks down by race. The broader white public is ready to support progressive policies if it looks like they're going to work. Everybody else is willing to live with Obama's mistakes.
Wimpy Conspiracies
The "fluff right" blog Protein Wisdom is pushing the "William Ayers wrote Obama's book" sham. What a wimpy little conspiracy theory! Back when the right-wing had guts, they accused Bill Clinton of murdering half the population of Arkansas.
TODAY'S THE DAY--VOTE FOR OBAMA
I'm so excited about today I couldn't sleep past 6:30am even though I have today off. It's still Obama by 6-8 points. Yesterday was a big plus day for Obama in the polls. Everything looks good.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Vote Suppression as a Civil Rights Crime
If the polling bears out and Barack Obama is elected president tomorrow, he's going to have to deal with a large number of "legacy issues," including the two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the financial meltdown, Guantanamo, the military tribunals, the extraordinary rendition program, health care reform, and climate change.
One legacy issue that hasn't caught the media's attention is "vote suppression"--the efforts of Republican officials to intimidate grass-roots vote registration efforts, develop schemes to lower voting rates among poor people, and scare people in minority communities away from voting.
It should be illegal.
Voting is a fundamental right in American society--as much a cornerstone of democracy as the right to freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of assembly.
At its root, vote suppression is the attempt to intimidate, coerce, or otherwise prevent American citizens from exercising that fundamental right.
As a result, all forms of vote suppression should be outlawed.
It should be a felony to engage in any behavior designed to intimidate, coerce, or otherwise prevent eligible voters from exercising their right to vote. That includes seeking to scare people away from voting, engaging in registration purges with the intent of eliminating eligible (as well as ineligible voters), or excluding people who have moved recently, lost their homes, or are homeless from voting. It should also include the various efforts by election officials to limit participation.
Vote suppression has become "politics as usual" for the Republican Party. Thus, it could be argued that making vote suppression illegal would be a form of "criminalizing politics."
So be it.
Republican vote suppression is an attempt to prevent people from exercising their fundamental rights as Americans.
It should be a crime.
One legacy issue that hasn't caught the media's attention is "vote suppression"--the efforts of Republican officials to intimidate grass-roots vote registration efforts, develop schemes to lower voting rates among poor people, and scare people in minority communities away from voting.
It should be illegal.
Voting is a fundamental right in American society--as much a cornerstone of democracy as the right to freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of assembly.
At its root, vote suppression is the attempt to intimidate, coerce, or otherwise prevent American citizens from exercising that fundamental right.
As a result, all forms of vote suppression should be outlawed.
It should be a felony to engage in any behavior designed to intimidate, coerce, or otherwise prevent eligible voters from exercising their right to vote. That includes seeking to scare people away from voting, engaging in registration purges with the intent of eliminating eligible (as well as ineligible voters), or excluding people who have moved recently, lost their homes, or are homeless from voting. It should also include the various efforts by election officials to limit participation.
Vote suppression has become "politics as usual" for the Republican Party. Thus, it could be argued that making vote suppression illegal would be a form of "criminalizing politics."
So be it.
Republican vote suppression is an attempt to prevent people from exercising their fundamental rights as Americans.
It should be a crime.
I Sure Hope Rove is Right!
Who would have thought I would agree with a moral cesspool like Karl Rove. But Rove's final election map is pretty much what the 52-46 I expect for Obama victory is going to look like. The only difference is that I would have left Indiana and Missouri as toss-ups. But that's splitting hairs and there's something to be said for choosing anyway.
Some final thoughts as I wait for voting results to come in:
The Pennsylvania Tease. Pennsylvania has become somewhat of a holy grail for Republican presidential candidates. McCain put a lot of time and resources into Pennsylvania and there's been a lot of commentary about how desperately he needed the Keystone State after losing Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. But Bush also put considerable energy into Pennsylvania. The Republicans are constantly tempted by the Republican "T" that surrounds Philly and Pittsburgh with put a lot of conservatives and evangelicals. They'd also like to keep some beachhead in a Northeast that seems to be falling permanently out of their grasp. But the problem for the Republicans is that their social conservatism kills them in the Philly suburbs and Sarah Palin is a
constant reminder of the GOP's social conservatism. Bush lost Pennsylvania by four in 2000 and two in 2004. McCain might fall even father behind this time.
Repudiating Rove? This election initially looked like a repudiation of Karl Rove's strategy of maximizing the party base and ignoring independents. But it didn't work out that way as neither candidate made the classic move from "primary partisanship" to "general election moderation" designed to appeal to moderate voters. The dynamic factor here was McCain. He never let up in his efforts to mobilize the party base and even brought out Dick Cheney as his campaign closer. Even more importantly, McCain moved Obama away from moderation by mocking him as an empty celebrity. By the time the conventions got started, Obama was just as much a partisan Democrat as Teddy Kennedy or Bill Clinton. If Obama wins as expected, it will be a result of the appeal of the progressive partisanship rather than the "One America" rhetoric he started with in 2007.
No Longer A Center-Right Nation? Charles Krauthammer, Newsweek, and just about anybody doesn't have a DailyKos diary is now reminding Barack Obama that the United States is a "center-right country" that doesn't like the "liberal agenda."
Here's Krauthammer:
McCain is the quintessential center-right candidate. Yet the quintessential center-right country is poised to reject him. The hunger for anti-Republican catharsis and the blinding promise of Obamian hope are simply too strong. The reckoning comes in the morning.
But Krauthammer might have a surprise coming. It's not just the Bush administration and the Republican Party that's being repudiated. The American public might be pushing the reject button on social and religious conservatism, hyper-aggressive neo-conservative foreign policy, anti-immigrant sentiment, and the heightened concentration of wealth. The broader public is getting fed up with talk radio and Fox as well. Rush Limbaugh is smart enough to know that moderates hate him, but the conservative establishment have yet to catch up with the fact that the American public is rejecting the conservative movement as well as the Republican Party.
My own perception is that the broader white public is ready to support progressive policies if it looks like they're going to work. Everybody else is willing to live with their mistakes.
The First Four Polls of the Day
Twenty-four hours to go. TWENTY-FOUR HOURS TO GO!! This morning's first four polls were good for Obama. Gallup had him up by 11, NBC by 8, Zogby by 7, and Research 2000 by 6.
There's a little bit of worry in the Research 2000 tracking poll which has only had Obama up by 4 for the last two nights. That's within the margin of error.
But I've still made my last campaign contribution.
There's a little bit of worry in the Research 2000 tracking poll which has only had Obama up by 4 for the last two nights. That's within the margin of error.
But I've still made my last campaign contribution.
MoveOn.Org SCANDAL!
Yes, that's right. SCANDAL. When Mrs. RSI woke up this morning, she had a message from MoveOn.org in her mailbox asking her if she was "NERVOUS" and to contribute $25 if she was. Of course, she's nervous! Who wouldn't be nervous if they were faced with the prospect of John McCain becoming President of the United States after this campaign? But using that nervousness as a fund-raising gimmick is shear EXPLOITATION and MoveOn.org should be ashamed.
Fortunately, Mrs. RSI resisted the urge the send more of her hard-earned pension to those blood-suckers.
Update: Oh, I forgot to mention that RSI sent $25 in last-minute cash to the Obama campaign. It seems they needed more money.
Fortunately, Mrs. RSI resisted the urge the send more of her hard-earned pension to those blood-suckers.
Update: Oh, I forgot to mention that RSI sent $25 in last-minute cash to the Obama campaign. It seems they needed more money.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
RSI Waffles: Now It's Obama by 6
It turns out that RSI is a nervous, insecure kind of person after all. Who would have known? On Oct. 24, I thought Obama would win by either 6 or 8 points and came down on the side of 8. After a week of waffling, I still see Obama as winning by 6-8 points but now come down on the side of 6.
Now it's Obama--52, McCain--46 and give me my nerve pills.
That's how the Pew polling organization views it as well. Of course, Pew had Obama by 15 in their previous poll. So, they might not be the most reliable people in the world this time around.
Nate Silver's statistical model at FiveThirtyEight.com has gradually come down from Obama by 8 to Obama by 5.4.
The above map from Electoral-vote.com pretty much captures what I see with Obama winning at 52-46. Among the currently contested states, Obama captures Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia while McCain wins Arizona, Montana, and North Dakota. The only difference is that I believe McCain would also win North Carolina and that Indiana and Missouri would still be toss-ups.
That would put the electoral college at Obama--338, McCain--178 and toss-ups--22. That's a big Obama win and gives him a pretty decent mandate given that the Democrats are going to increase their majorities in the House and Senate.
If Obama wins by eight points, then he would also add Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Arizona which would make it 375-163.
Stay tuned for more waffling.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
