I Sure Hope Rove is Right!

Who would have thought I would agree with a moral cesspool like Karl Rove. But Rove's final election map is pretty much what the 52-46 I expect for Obama victory is going to look like. The only difference is that I would have left Indiana and Missouri as toss-ups. But that's splitting hairs and there's something to be said for choosing anyway.

Some final thoughts as I wait for voting results to come in:

The Pennsylvania Tease. Pennsylvania has become somewhat of a holy grail for Republican presidential candidates. McCain put a lot of time and resources into Pennsylvania and there's been a lot of commentary about how desperately he needed the Keystone State after losing Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. But Bush also put considerable energy into Pennsylvania. The Republicans are constantly tempted by the Republican "T" that surrounds Philly and Pittsburgh with put a lot of conservatives and evangelicals. They'd also like to keep some beachhead in a Northeast that seems to be falling permanently out of their grasp. But the problem for the Republicans is that their social conservatism kills them in the Philly suburbs and Sarah Palin is a
constant reminder of the GOP's social conservatism. Bush lost Pennsylvania by four in 2000 and two in 2004. McCain might fall even father behind this time.

Repudiating Rove? This election initially looked like a repudiation of Karl Rove's strategy of maximizing the party base and ignoring independents. But it didn't work out that way as neither candidate made the classic move from "primary partisanship" to "general election moderation" designed to appeal to moderate voters. The dynamic factor here was McCain. He never let up in his efforts to mobilize the party base and even brought out Dick Cheney as his campaign closer. Even more importantly, McCain moved Obama away from moderation by mocking him as an empty celebrity. By the time the conventions got started, Obama was just as much a partisan Democrat as Teddy Kennedy or Bill Clinton. If Obama wins as expected, it will be a result of the appeal of the progressive partisanship rather than the "One America" rhetoric he started with in 2007.

No Longer A Center-Right Nation? Charles Krauthammer, Newsweek, and just about anybody doesn't have a DailyKos diary is now reminding Barack Obama that the United States is a "center-right country" that doesn't like the "liberal agenda."

Here's Krauthammer:

McCain is the quintessential center-right candidate. Yet the quintessential center-right country is poised to reject him. The hunger for anti-Republican catharsis and the blinding promise of Obamian hope are simply too strong. The reckoning comes in the morning.

But Krauthammer might have a surprise coming. It's not just the Bush administration and the Republican Party that's being repudiated. The American public might be pushing the reject button on social and religious conservatism, hyper-aggressive neo-conservative foreign policy, anti-immigrant sentiment, and the heightened concentration of wealth. The broader public is getting fed up with talk radio and Fox as well. Rush Limbaugh is smart enough to know that moderates hate him, but the conservative establishment have yet to catch up with the fact that the American public is rejecting the conservative movement as well as the Republican Party.

My own perception is that the broader white public is ready to support progressive policies if it looks like they're going to work. Everybody else is willing to live with their mistakes.