It turns out that RSI is a nervous, insecure kind of person after all. Who would have known? On Oct. 24, I thought Obama would win by either 6 or 8 points and came down on the side of 8. After a week of waffling, I still see Obama as winning by 6-8 points but now come down on the side of 6.
Now it's Obama--52, McCain--46 and give me my nerve pills.
That's how the Pew polling organization views it as well. Of course, Pew had Obama by 15 in their previous poll. So, they might not be the most reliable people in the world this time around.
Nate Silver's statistical model at FiveThirtyEight.com has gradually come down from Obama by 8 to Obama by 5.4.
The above map from Electoral-vote.com pretty much captures what I see with Obama winning at 52-46. Among the currently contested states, Obama captures Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia while McCain wins Arizona, Montana, and North Dakota. The only difference is that I believe McCain would also win North Carolina and that Indiana and Missouri would still be toss-ups.
That would put the electoral college at Obama--338, McCain--178 and toss-ups--22. That's a big Obama win and gives him a pretty decent mandate given that the Democrats are going to increase their majorities in the House and Senate.
If Obama wins by eight points, then he would also add Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Arizona which would make it 375-163.
Stay tuned for more waffling.
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