Eleven Theses on the Debt Limit Showdown

Given the problems of the American economy and political institutions, it's a good time to give a nod to Karl Marx. Here's some quick ideas on the state of play in the Debt Limit Showdown modeled after Marx's "Theses on Feuerbach."

I. Are We Exceptional? You betcha. American exceptionalism now means that the U. S. has an extraordinarily large economy and an equally dysfunctional political sector. Having both the best and the worst of the bad is very American. For more than eighty years after the Revolution, we had both the best state of freedom and the worst kind of slavery.
II. The Way of the Whigs. The Debt Limit Showdown is the end of the Republican Party as we know it. The GOP used to be an alliance where global business interests were the senior partners and small business, Southern/Western regionalisms, and ultra-conservative factions provided a populist edge. The religious right, libertarians, and Confederate and frontier nostalgia buffs now dominate to such an extent that they can tell big business to take their global economy and shove it.

III. A Seat at the Table? The United States is the only advanced industrial country where large-scale business interests don't have a political home. The Democrats have a global business perspective but want more government regulation than big business can tolerate. The new Republican Party wants to end the role of government in the national economy and is willing to sacrifice the macro-economic interests of big business to do so. Big business carries a lot of weight, but can no longer advance its fundamental interests.

IV. All the Pretty Revolutions. Since the 1950's, the U. S. has been a caultron of reform movements for civil rights, women's equality, sexual freedom, gay rights, and language diversity. If Lincoln was right to characterize the Civil War a "new birth of freedom," we can legitimately view the last 60 years as "the Age of New Freedoms." Taken as a whole, these movements have changed the nature of everybody's life for the better in the United States.

V. A Critical Mass of Globalism. For all of their problems and limitations, America's urban belts, major cities, and university centers are characterized by a dove-tailing of multi-cultural diversity, global outreach, and high concentrations of financial and cultural capital. Seattle, the Bay Area, LA, Miami, the Bos-Wash corridor and other centers of commerce and technology have become global cities almost as much as they are American cities.

VI. Tea Party Agonistes. What the Tea Party represents is a pointed reaction against the social and cultural changes of the last 60 years. Both rejecting American society and feeling rejected and victimized, the Tea Party and its ultra-conservative allies would want to escape from America like the Boer trekkers or the original Mormon migrants, but can't because the authoritarian traditions they crave have died out in the West. As a result, the Tea Party is stuck with playing out the tragic farce of seeking to dominate American society without being contaminated by modern American life.

VII. A Specter is Haunting Barack Obama. When Barack Obama was elected president, both sides viewed him as the representative figure for the new multi-cultural America that had elected him. As a result, both sides have been disappointed with Obama's presidency. Progressives, African-Americans, hispanics, gay people, Jews, Asian Americans, and young people were all expecting Obama to embody their nascent vision of American society and saw it in his convention address and campaign speeches. Instead, they got a technical manager and moderate. Constituencies on the right were expecting and perhaps yearning for the anti-Christ and got somebody who was more worried about their happiness than anything else. Obama may win re-election but the stigma of disappointment will haunt him like it haunts Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

VIII. Like the Union Army. The American left is much like the Union Army before Grant--large, loosely organized, well-armed, well-fed, and led so poorly that it's painful. Weaknesses are legion, but the left is closely connected with the progressive development of American society over the last 60 years and has a diffuse structure of small groups and publications that allow it to survive defeat and disappointment. Two generations of national leadership have come and gone since the election of Bill Clinton in 1992 and people on the left still deserve better. Perhaps there's a left-wing version of Grant out there waiting to find his niche and his voice.

IX. Like the Confederate Army. The Republicans and the Tea Party right has many of the virtues of the Army of Northern Virginia--audacity, organization, and effective leadership. Hell, I wish there was somebody on the left who was half as smart as Mitch McConnell. But they're fighting a losing battle for the horrible cause of yanking American society back into the 19th century.

Given the problems of the American economy and political institutions, it's a good time to give a nod to Karl Marx. Here's some quick ideas on the state of play in the Debt Limit Showdown modeled after Marx's "Theses on Feuerbach."

I. Are We Exceptional? American exceptionalism now means that the U. S. has an extraordinarily large economy and an equally dysfunctional political sector. Having both the best and the worst of the bad is very American. For more than eighty years after the Revolution, we had both the best state of freedom and the worst kind of slavery.

II. The Way of the Whigs. The Debt Limit Showdown is the end of the Republican Party as we know it. The GOP used to be an alliance where global business interests were the senior partners and small business, Southern/Western regionalisms, and ultra-conservative factions provided a populist edge. The religious right, libertarians, and Confederate and frontier nostalgia buffs now dominate to such an extent that they can tell big business to take their global economy and shove it.

III. A Seat at the Table? The United States is the only advanced industrial country where large-scale business interests don't have a political home. The Democrats have a global business perspective but want more government regulation than big business can tolerate. The new Republican Party wants to end the role of government in the national economy and is willing to sacrifice the macro-economic interests of big business to do so. Big business carries a lot of weight, but can no longer advance its fundamental interests.

IV. All the Pretty Revolutions. Since the 1950's, the U. S. has been a caultron of reform movements for civil rights, women's equality, sexual freedom, gay rights, and language diversity. If Lincoln was right to characterize the Civil War a "new birth of freedom," we can legitimately view the last 60 years as "the Age of New Freedoms." Taken as a whole, these movements have changed the nature of everybody's life for the better in the United States.

V. A Critical Mass of Globalism. For all of their problems and limitations, America's urban belts, major cities, and university centers are characterized by a dove-tailing of multi-cultural diversity, global outreach, and high concentrations of financial and cultural capital. Seattle, the Bay Area, LA, Miami, the Bos-Wash corridor and other centers of commerce and technology have become global cities almost as much as they are American cities.

VI. Tea Party Agonistes. What the Tea Party represents is a pointed reaction against the social and cultural changes of the last 60 years. Both rejecting American society and feeling rejected and victimized, the Tea Party and its ultra-conservative allies would want to escape from America like the Boer trekkers or the original Mormon migrants, but can't because the authoritarian traditions they crave have died out in the West. As a result, the Tea Party is stuck with playing out the tragic farce of seeking to dominate American society without being contaminated by modern American life.

VII. A Specter is Haunting Barack Obama. When Barack Obama was elected president, both sides viewed him as the representative figure for the new multi-cultural America that had elected him. As a result, both sides have been disappointed with Obama's presidency. Progressives, African-Americans, hispanics, gay people, Jews, Asian Americans, and young people were all expecting Obama to embody their nascent vision of American society and saw it in his convention address and campaign speeches. Instead, they got a technical manager and moderate. Constituencies on the right were expecting and perhaps yearning for the anti-Christ and got somebody who was more worried about their happiness than anything else. Obama may win re-election but the stigma of disappointment will haunt him like it haunts Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

VIII. Like the Union Army. The American left is much like the Union Army before Grant--large, loosely organized, well-armed, well-fed, and led so poorly that it's painful. Weaknesses are legion, but the left is closely connected with the progressive development of American society over the last 60 years and has a diffuse structure of small groups and publications that allow it to survive defeat and disappointment. Two generations of national leadership have come and gone since the election of Bill Clinton in 1992 and people on the left still deserve better. Perhaps there's a left-wing version of Grant out there waiting to find his niche and his voice.

IX. Like the Confederate Army. The Republicans and the Tea Party right has many of the virtues of the Army of Northern Virginia--audacity, organization, and effective leadership. Hell, I wish there was somebody on the left who was half as smart as Mitch McConnell. But they're fighting a losing battle for the horrible cause of yanking American society back into the 19th century.


X. Tragic Victories. My guess is that the Debt Limit Showdown will result in a fairly lengthy period of debt default with unknown consequences to the American and world economy. If either side gains a clear victory, the other side is going to strengthen itself in defeat as the whole of politically active America stews in bitterness. In this light, the best outcome might be a mutually unsatisfactory compromise.

XI. Nothing Wrong with Interpretation. Marx was right about the need to change the world rather than interpret it. But it wouldn't hurt if we had some better interpretations.My guess is that the Debt Limit Showdown will result in a fairly lengthy period of debt default with unknown consequences to the American and world economy. If either side gains a clear victory, the other side is going to strengthen itself in defeat as the whole of politically active America stews in bitterness. In this light, the best outcome might be a mutually unsatisfactory compromise.

XI. Nothing Wrong with Interpretation. Marx was right about the need to change the world rather than interpret it. But it wouldn't hurt if we had some better interpretations.

Rick Perry's "Gay Marriage Reparative Therapy"

Texas Governor Rick Perry hasn't announced yet, but the Rick Perry For President campaign has begun in earnest as Perry seeks to mend fences with the most determined haters in the social conservative movement--professional gay rights opponents.

Perry had to mend fences because he responded to the passage of gay marriage in New York by saying something that sounded vaguely like acceptance.

“Our friends in New York six weeks ago passed a statute that said that marriage can be between two people of the same sex and you know what that is New York and that is their business and that is fine with me, that is their call. If you believe in the tenth amendment, stay out of their business”.

That quote was a problem for Perry because of the particular nature of his candidacy.

Rick Perry's No. 1 strategy for the Republican primaries is to beat out Michele Bachmann for the position of social conservative/Tea Party candidate and then edge Mitt Romney over the long haul.

And it's a viable strategy.

Mitt Romney is a very weak frontrunner who is incredibly vulnerable to negative advertising and many social conservative groups would tend to support Perry over any woman not named Sarah Palin. As a result, Perry has a definite path to the nomination.

But social conservatives are just as opposed to gay rights as George Wallace was opposed to civil rights for African-Americans and Rick Perry was denounced by Rick Santorum and others for his "appeasement."

So it was onto the haters for a little "gay marriage reparative therapy."

Today, Perry stopped by the radio program of Tony Perkins, the head of America's most respected hate group, the Family Research Council. The Family Research Council was named a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center because they publish inflammatory material that claims that gay people belong in jail among other things. Last February for example, Peter Sprigg, the senior researcher at the Family Research Council (FRC) told MSNBC host Chris Matthews that "I think there would be a place for criminal sanctions on homosexual behavior." All in all, the FRC's statements on homosexuality reminded the Southern Poverty Law Center of the Klan's statements on race. So the FRC was named a hate group.

Perry didn't exactly retreat from his view that New York had a right to legalize gay marriage, but he did manage to mollify Perkins by restating the blanket opposition to gay marriage in Texas and his own preference for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

Right and that is the reason that the federal marriage amendment is being offered, it’s that small group of activist judges, and frankly a small handful, if you will, of states, and liberal special interests groups that intend on a redefinition of, if you will, marriage on the nation, for all of us, which I adamantly oppose.

Of course, that's never going to happen and Perry knows it. Support for gay marriage has been growing steadily over the years and just recently passed the 50%. The chances of conservatives passing an anti-gay marriage amendment to the constitution are exactly zero.

But reality isn't that meaningful of a concept for the FRC or any conservative group. The point for Perry was to pander enough to let the Family Research Council know that he was "one of them" and he succeeded.

And the Perry for President campaign goes on.

To Be Decided By Gallup--The End Game on Debt Limits

The Last Couple of Plays in Regulation. Nobody really knows what's going to happen with the Debt-Limit Showdown. Talking Points Memo and Nate Silver think it's going to be settled before Aug. 2. Andrew Leonard of Salon thinks not. I'm with Leonard. My best guess is that Obama, the Democrats, and Congressional Republicans will NOT hammer out a compromise by the Aug. 2 deadline and that they won't come to agreement if they have another week either.

It looks to me like neither side can afford to compromise. There are two debt limit proposals out there now--one by Harry Reid which projects spending cuts of 2.7 trillion and the other by John Boehner which projects 1 trillion in cuts. Given that Boehner has already come to at least one agreement with Obama, it's likely that Reid and Boehner could come to some sort of compromise on spending if spending were the main issue.

But it's not.

The main problem is how to schedule the next debt limit vote. John Boehner is adamant about scheduling another debt limit vote in six months and making the Democrats go through the entire process again during the 2012 election campaign and Boehner is bringing up legislation to that effect today. The bill isn't all popular with Republicans because it doesn't fulfill all of the big ambitions that the GOP had for the debt limit debate. Republicans had hoped to either dramatically cut federal discretionary spending, get big cuts in Medicare and Social Security, or get a balanced budget amendment. Boehner's plan doesn't contain any of this and the only consolation that he's offering Republicans is to renew the whole depressing debate again in 2012 as a way to bog down the Obama administration and help the Republican presidential candidate.

But Senate Democrats aren't totally stupid. They're just as adamant about not putting the debt limit albatross around Obama's neck and all 51 Senate Democrats and two independents have already signed a letter indicating that they won't vote for the Boehner plan. Several Senate Republicans have expressed scepticism about the Boehner bill as well. So Boehner's bill isn't going anywhere in the Senate. But Harry Reid's legislation isn't going anywhere either. Reid's plan won't have the 60 votes needed to get through the Senate and doesn't offer anything to Republicans in the House.

In other words, none of the proposals have a snowball's chance of getting through the hell that is now the Congress of the United States.

And I don't think that there's going to be much room for compromise either.

The Republicans can't give in because of Paul Ryan's Medicare proposals. Right now, the Ryan proposal to turn Medicare into a voucher system is an unpopular albatross around the neck of every Republican candidate in the country. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell initially tried to escape the Paul Ryan problem by demanding that the Democrats accept major cuts in Social Security and Medicare entitlement cuts as the price of getting any kind of debt limit agreement. But Obama trumped that when he proposed the poison pill of accepting entitlement cuts only if the GOP agreed to eliminate many of the tax loopholes for big business. Boehner found that proposal appealing, but was overruled by the Tea Party caucus.

At this point, the proposal to revisit the debt limit debate in early 2012 is the only weapon the Republicans have to counter "The Ryan Effect" and I don't think the Republicans believe they can afford to give it up.

That's why John Boehner will ultimately choose default over compromise on his proposals.

And it's not like the Democrats are going to cave either. Obama and Harry Reid don't want to piss away all the advantages that the Dems have been accumulating since the 2010 election debacle. They want the election focus to be on Republican over-reaching and they can't do that if there's another Debt Limit Showdown.

Even more important than that, the Democrats are determined not to be seen as weak. The biggest problem for Obama and the Congressional Democrats is that almost all of the important players in American politics see them as weak. Congressional Republicans, conservative activist groups, big business, and a lot of people in the Obama administration itself view the Dems as too eager to compromise. If the Democrats and Obama cave now, they'll no longer get the benefit of the doubt from their own constituencies.

Ultimately, the last two plays in regulation will likely be votes on the Boehner Plan and the Reid Plan in the Senate.

And both plans will fail.

Overtime. You know, it wouldn't be a bad idea if political overtime was decided by penalty kicks just like soccer. But overtime in the Debt Limit Showdown is going to be decided by the polls instead.

And it could be a long overtime.

That's because there's a decent chance that the public mood has to get really ugly and angry for either side to give in.

That's certainly the case for the Republicans. The polls already show that the public favors Obama's approach of balancing enhanced revenue with spending cuts. If the Republicans were going to respond to "public opinion" in this way, they would have already caved. Conservative Republicans are in an odd position. They see their majority in the House of Representatives and the debt limit debate as a big chance to push through a balanced budget amendment and eviscerate social security and medicare. That way, conservatives could lock in "conservative government" for generations even if conservative Republicans find it impossible to win elections in any but the reddest of red states. This is part of the reason why the Republicans are unlikely to cave unless the political environment turns against them completely.

Of course, that can happen.

The political environment could turn very toxic for the GOP if markets grind to a halt, federal checks stop going out, or Republican politicians and conservative talkers start committing a lot of "we don't care how much you're suffering" gaffes. The last big Republican initiated showdown was scuttled when Newt Gingrich started whining about having to sit in the back of a plane.

But I still think that House Republicans will be very reluctant to back down and might decide to defy public opinion even if it turns very strongly against them.

For the Democrats, backing down is still "weakness" and patience with Obama administration weakness is beginning to run out among the Democrats. The Obama administration is much more sensitive to public opinion than the Republicans, but it would take a big shift for the Obama administration and Congressional Democrats to cave.

Overtime for the Debt Limit Showdown could last awhile.

Maybe they should just do penalty kicks.