Tuesday, November 04, 2008

The Almost Final Electoral College Look

It looks like Obama might take North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri. He's ahead in North Carolina and Indiana and only behind by one point in Missouri. If memory serves me right, the last area to report in Missouri is St. Louis where Obama could be expected to rack big majorities.
If Obama wins all four states, he would have 365 electoral votes to 156 for McCain.

Some notes:

1. No Social Conservatism here. If Obama wins Montana, that will be the only big surprise for a state win. But Obama's margins in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and New Mexico exceeded expectations. Pennsylvania is a special case with an 11 point Obama win. Obama rolled up more than a 450,000 vote margin in Philadelphia while also winning all of the inner ring of suburban Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery counties and most all of the second ring as well.

One has to wonder if McCain and Palin spending all that time in rural Pennsylvania actually hurt them by stimulating opposition in the metro areas.

2. Down to their last safe state. The Republicans only have one safe haven and one tossup on the Atlantic seaboard, with Georgia as the toss-up and South Carolina as the lonely Republican haven. The Republicans are in danger of becoming slipping from a regional party to a subregional party of part of the Old South, the Great Plains, and the more isolated Mountain States.

3. The Next Ultimate Journey. The Holy Grail of the Democratic Party used to be Florida. With Florida at least temporarily conquered, the target for Democratic aspirations will shift to Texas. The Republicans need to rethink.

1 comment:

jinchi said...

We should all pause to thank Bob Barr, who appears to have made the difference in both Indiana and North Carolina, and Ron Paul who might cost McCain a victory in Montana.