The four daily tracking polls out so far today have Obama up by an average of 8. I like that, but there are several cases of the Bradley Effect where African-Americans have gotten 10% less of the vote than indicated by the polls.
I won't feel very comfortable until Obama is ahead by 12%. Of course, he is ahead by 12 in the Research 2000/Daily Kos tracker.
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I am afraid that even a 10% lead might not overcome the electoral college. CNN has a handy interacitve map: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/ . If you take the bradley effect into account for all states in which obama leads 5-6% or less, then the election comes down to ohio. And Biden has already sunk his ship in Columbus.
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