The Shadow Presidency Wins One. I've been arguing since Nancy Pelosi's installation as Speaker that she's functioning more as a shadow president than anything else. To use one of her formulations, "the House will lead" and she will lead the House. By winning a close vote today over setting a deadline to withdraw troops for Iraq, Pelosi has shown that she has the stuff to be a successful national leader. Pelosi formulated the bill in a way that coincided with almost 60% of the public, got tough with recalcitrant liberals, and added on enough pork to corral some marginal votes. Contrary to President Bush, the House Bill is not a protest against the Bush administration. It is an attempt to set a different course for the war. In other words, Pelosi is attempting to govern herself. That's what puts Pelosi on a collision course with the Bush administration.
Playing Chicken with Renegade President. The Bush administration embarked on the surge policy against elite opinion as expressed by the Baker Commission, against the new Congressional majority, and against a large majority of public opinion. That's what makes Bush a renegade president and it appears that he's getting ready to play a high stakes game of chicken with Pelosi. According to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the American military mission in Iraq will start running short of money if a supplemental appropriations bill that President Bush can sign does not pass Congress.
That's a little more than 3 weeks away and there doesn't seem to be any room for flexibility in either President Bush's or Shadow President Pelosi's position. If Bush accepts Pelosi deadline, people who had been on the fence will come out as war opponents and the whole Iraq war policy will collapse under the weight of public disapproval. So Bush has no choice. It doesn't look like there's a lot of wiggle room in Pelosi's position either. As a result, the issue may come down to a matter of whose willing to risk being blamed for whatever happens to American troops if they run out of money.
As usual in American politics, "who blinks first" will be determined by how public opinion shapes up. Generally speaking, the public sides with Presidents in these kinds of showdowns. For example, public opinion sided decisively with Bill Clinton in the government shutdown crisis of 1995. It will be interesting to see if that's the case here.
Is a Cut-Off Coming? Right-wing commentators and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell responded to the non-binding resolutions by claiming that the only real way that the Democrats could oppose the war was to cut off funding. That might be what's happening here. Pelosi might be putting the House into a position of "vetoing" funding for the Iraq War that doesn't include a deadline for withdrawal. People usually think of the President as the one who has the veto in American politics. However, it's important to emphasize that the House of Representatives has a veto over spending for the war in Iraq. If the House doesn't appropriate money for the war, there isn't going to be any money for the war and they won't need to pass any legislation to cut off funding.
In other words, the House can cut off funding for the war by refusing to pass a bill that the President is willing to sign.
The question now is between the surge and cutting off funding for the war. It will be the public that provides the answer.
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4 comments:
The relevant text of the bill:
SEC. 1904. (a) The President shall make and transmit to Congress the following determinations, along with reports in classified and unclassified form detailing the basis for each determination, on or before July 1, 2007:
(1) whether the Government of Iraq has given United States Armed Forces and Iraqi Security Forces the authority to pursue all extremists, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias, and is making substantial progress in delivering necessary Iraqi Security Forces for Baghdad and protecting such Forces from political interference; intensifying efforts to build balanced security forces throughout Iraq that provide even-handed security for all Iraqis; ensuring that Iraq's political authorities are not undermining or making false accusations against members of the Iraqi Security Forces; eliminating militia control of local security; establishing a strong militia disarmament program; ensuring fair and just enforcement of laws; establishing political, media, economic, and service committees in support of the Baghdad Security Plan; and eradicating safe havens;
(2) whether the Government of Iraq is making substantial progress in meeting its commitment to pursue reconciliation initiatives, including enactment of a hydro-carbon law; adoption of legislation necessary for the conduct of provincial and local elections; reform of current laws governing the de-Baathification process; amendment of the Constitution of Iraq; and allocation of Iraqi revenues for reconstruction projects; and
(3) whether the Government of Iraq and United States Armed Forces are making substantial progress in reducing the level of sectarian violence in Iraq.
(b) On or before October 1, 2007, the President--
(1) shall certify to the Congress that the Government of Iraq has enacted a broadly accepted hydro-carbon law that equitably shares oil revenues among all Iraqis; adopted legislation necessary for the conduct of provincial and local elections, taken steps to implement such legislation, and set a schedule to conduct provincial and local elections; reformed current laws governing the de-Baathification process to allow for more equitable treatment of individuals affected by such laws; amended the Constitution of Iraq consistent with the principles contained in article 137 of such constitution; and allocated and begun expenditure of $10 billion in Iraqi revenues for reconstruction projects, including delivery of essential services, on an equitable basis; or
(2) shall report to the Congress that he is unable to make such certification.
(c) If in the transmissions to Congress required by subsection (a) the President determines that any of the conditions specified in such subsection have not been met, or if the President is unable to make the certification specified in subsection (b) by the required date, the Secretary of Defense shall commence the redeployment of the Armed Forces from Iraq and complete such redeployment within 180 days.
(d) If the President makes the certification specified in subsection (b), the Secretary of Defense shall commence the redeployment of the Armed Forces from Iraq not later than March 1, 2008, and complete such redeployment within 180 days.
(e) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, funds appropriated or otherwise made available in this or any other Act are immediately available for obligation and expenditure to plan and execute a safe and orderly redeployment of the Armed Forces from Iraq, as specified in subsections (c) and (d).
(f) After the conclusion of the 180-day period for redeployment specified in subsections (c) and (d), the Secretary of Defense may not deploy or maintain members of the Armed Forces in Iraq for any purpose other than the following:
(1) Protecting American diplomatic facilities and American citizens, including members of the U.S. Armed Forces.
(2) Serving in roles consistent with customary diplomatic positions.
(3) Engaging in targeted special actions limited in duration and scope to killing or capturing members of al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations with global reach.
(4) Training members of the Iraqi Security Forces.
Yes, deadlines, but lots of flexibility viz certifications & authorized post deadline military activity. So, I still predict that compromise & Senate final passage & compromise conference report will in the end lead to presidential signing... signing statement and all.
I definitely see the point. At the same time, however, President Bush and the media are all referring to a definite time-line for withdrawal. Is there a chance that the time-line is embedded in another clause.
It's right there at (d) ric... 180 from March 1st would be the end of August, just like you noted from the press reports. After that, there are still the authorized "purpose[s]" under (f), and they've set no date certain deadline on when that mission must end.
Anthony,
Here's the summary of the legislation from Nancy Pelosi's Speaker's web page.
The relevant point is that is this:
1. If the Iraq government does not meet the specified benchmarks by Oct. 2007, the U. S. is to begin troop withdrawals immediately and complete the withdral in 180 days.
2. Even if the Iraqis meet the benchmarks, U. S. troop withdrawal is to begin by March 1, 2008 and be completed in 180 days (around Sept. 1)
U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans’ Health and Iraq Accountability Act
On March 23, 2007, the House passed the U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans' Health and Iraq Accountability Act by a vote of 218 to 212. This bill will support our troops and veterans, hold the Bush Administration and Iraqi government accountable and bring our soldiers home by August 2008 or sooner.
The Act will:
Expand funding for veterans’ health care and hospitals
The bill provides funding so the Veterans Administration can meet the obligations of a new generation of veterans.
Bush Administration must meet military standards for troop readiness
The bill fully supports our troops and ensures they have the tools and resources they need to do the job they have been asked to do.
The legislation prohibits the deployment of troops who are not “fully mission capable” as defined by the Department of Defense – in other words, troops who are fully trained, equipped and protected. This a reaffirmation of current Department of Defense standards.
The President can only deploy “unprepared troops” if he certifies, in writing, to Congress, that deploying those troops is in the national interest.
Iraqi government must meet Bush benchmarks for reform
The bill requires the Iraqi government to meet the key security, political and economic benchmarks established by the President in his January 10 address.
The Iraqis failure to meet these benchmarks will mean the beginning of U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and will restrict economic aid to the Iraqis.
Strategic redeployment of U.S. combat troops by 2008
If progress toward meeting key benchmarks is not made by July 1, 2007, a redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq begins immediately and must be completed within 180 days.
If key benchmarks are not met by October 1, 2007, a redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq begins immediately and must be completed within 180 days.
If key benchmarks are met by October 1, 2007, a redeployment of U.S. troops must begin by no later than March 1, 2008, and be completed within 180 days.
Following redeployment, U.S. troops remaining in Iraq may only be used for diplomatic protection, counterterrorism operations, and training of Iraqi Security Forces.
Refocus military efforts on Afghanistan and fighting terrorism
Al Qaeda is reconstituting, and the Taliban has grown stronger in Afghanistan.
The bill significantly increases funding to defeat al Qaeda and terrorists in Afghanistan.
****The bill contains two levels of poison pills for the Bush administration--the reporting on troop readiness and the mandatory March 1, 2008 deadline for beginning withdrawal. But I think that Bush will end up swallowing both pills, take the money, and try to nullify the legislation through a signing statement. That means that Congress would have to sue to enforce the withdrawal provisions.****
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