Pelosi and Murtha: Genius Democrats

Newsweek has some interesting survey numbers out (via TPM). A solid majority, 59%-34%, supports House Democratic efforts to withdraw troops from Iraq by Fall 2008.

Those numbers are even better than they initially look for the Democratic leadership. What jumps out first is that Democrats are far more supportive of the Democratic proposal (78%-18%) than Republicans are united in opposition (32%-59% with 9% undecided). The proposal developed by Nancy Pelosi and John Murtha is a rallying point for Democrats while the surge is opposed by almost a third of Republicans (31%). Perhaps Republicans opposed to the surge won't be very excited about a Republican presidential candidate promising almost endless war.

Yet another reason to think that Bush and his advisers setting the Republicans up for a fall in 2008.

Another measure of the effectiveness of the Democratic proposal for troop withdrawal is that it manages to "capture" almost all of the public opposition to President Bush and the war. There's 60% disapproval of President Bush's job performance, 69% disapproval of his handling of the war, and 64% disapproval of the surge. The fact that an overwhelming majority of war opponents support troop withdrawal is a strong testimony to the political skills of the Democratic leadership in coming up with the proposal.

Finally, the Democratic proposal is supported by a strong majority of independent voters at 58% to 34%. The keystone of Rovian politics has been that almost all independents routinely vote the party line of one party. As the election of 2004 demonstrated, this was a valid insight. However, the failure of the Bush administration has raised the possibility that the whole spectrum of independents might be shifting toward the Democrats--that Democratic-leaning Democrats are becoming more solidly Democratic, that weakly Republican independents are beginning to lean Democratic, and that more strongly leaning Republican independents are becoming more "independent."

The other day, Karl Rove raised the question of whether he was a genius or an idiot in relation to the McCain smears of 2000. Two months into Democratic control of Congress, the Democrats are looking like geniuses compared to Rove.