Mickey Kaus on the Surge

Mickey Kaus, the former neo-liberal and now right-wing blogger for Slate, argues today that the surge is succeeding. Actually, Kaus doesn't say that directly. People on the right don't want to be caught with their optimism pants down again. Instead, Kaus works through indirection, providing support for the surgey by nitpicking Huffington Post contributor and war opponent Simon Jenkins.

Kaus' main evidence for progress comes from Baghdad blogger Omar:

You look around in Baghdad now and see hundreds of men working in the streets to pick up garbage; to plant flowers and paint the blast walls in joyful colors. Many of Baghdad's squares are becoming green and clean. The picture isn't perfect, but it's a clear attempt to beat violence and ease pain through giving the spring a chance to shine.

It's a tragedy for everyone in Baghdad who sees hope and renewal and it's a tragedy for General Petraeus and American troops. Nevertheless, it's likely that the current stability is a sign that the surge is failing instead of succeeding. One of the top priorities of the surge plan was to confront the Mahdi Army, the Badr Brigades, and other Shiite militias on their own turfs, defeat them militarily, and remake the Iraqi government as a moderate, largely secular regime.

But that's not happening.

Instead, the militias are lying low and militia leaders have gone into hiding. As a result, the whole Shiite militia structure is still in place waiting for the Americans to leave. Shiite militias still have an alternative government, still command thousands of armed fighters and death squad members and are still infiltrated throughout the Iraqi Army and the police. In fact, the Iraqi Army and police have become so unreliable that the U. S. is importing the Kurdish Peshmerga to provide "Iraqi" assistance.

The bottom line is still very pessimistic for the surge. If the U. S. triggers a confrontation with the militias, we risk a Shiite insurrection on top of the Sunni insurgency. However, if the U. S. military does not confront the Shiite militias, there's no chance that the surge will have any kind of lasting effect.

The price you pay for incompetence is that you sooner or later run out of good options. We're paying that price in Iraq.