RSI's Prediction: Obama 53, McCain 45

This is how I see the election turning out. Actually, I'm somewhat conflicted in that I view the numbers as working out to a six point Obama win even though my gut tells me it could be higher.

But there are some principles of variance.

Obama and McCain are going to add up to 99% of the vote

I believe that Obama currently has a 6 point lead that could be an 8 point lead.

At a six point lead, it would be Obama 51, McCain 45, Others (Barr, Nader, McKinney) 1% and undecided 3%.

Eight points would looke like Obama 52, McCain 44, etc.

Give Obama one point for enthusiasm and turnout and one point for his share of the undecideds. Subtract a point for "buyers remorse" among whites. That's a one point plus for Obama. If he has a 6 point lead now, that would put him at 52. If he's up by eight, that would be 53 with an electoral college vote well into the 300's.

Give McCain two points for undecided voters but subtract two points for discouraged conservative turnout. Add a point to McCain for"buyers remorse" among whites. That gives McCain a plus one altogether.

In other words, I think everything is going to cancel out and Obama's lead is going to stay the same over the next 12 days.

If it's Obama +6 right now, the final outcome would be Obama 52, McCain 46. If it's Obama +8, it would be Obama 53, McCain 45. I'm more comfortable with Obama 53, McCain 45.