Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Crossing the Obama/Clinton Line

Hillary Clinton's arguments that she would make a stronger general election candidate than Obama were somewhat bolstered by some Gallup Poll research showing that she would do better in a number of crucial swing states than Obama.
Clinton's 2008 swing-state victories include Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arkansas, and -- based solely on popular vote (not delegates) -- Florida and Michigan (her swing states total 105 electoral votes). Thus far in May, Gallup has found Clinton leading McCain in these states by six percentage points, 49% to 43%. McCain holds the slight edge over Obama in these states, 46% to 43%. Thus, as of today, Clinton is clearly the stronger Democratic candidate in this cluster of states where she beat Obama in the popular vote.
In other words, Hillary currently holds a six-point edge over Obama in a combination of eight swing states. That puts her over the edge of the margin of error for the swing states. So, the finding is statistically significant.

Still, it left me cold. The contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama was about primaries, caucuses, delegates, and super-delegates. As much as I preferred Hillary, I can see that Barack Obama, for all intents and purposes, has won the nomination and that this kind of at the margin argumentation by the Hillary camp isn't going to change the outcome.

So, I went out and stuck an Obama sticker on my car.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

What! Your gladiator hasn't left the coliseum with the last battles yet to end … and you are throwing in the towel? That is hard to take. Caric, even your candidate says it's not over and you are calling it quits? Ah, man, that's cold. The Clintons are master magicians who pull rabbits out of all kinds of political hats. Your gladiator says she isn't a quitter and that she has the votes to win this thing. What does that mean? She is ready to rush back into the center of the arena and take one more poke at her opposition in hopes he isn't looking as she slides that spearhead right between his armor plates. Then she will stand over her opponent and summon the response of the crowd as it erupts with roars of elated cheers for her victory, chanting her name until the emperor of democracy gives the thumbs up signal. All this and you will have already left the coliseum and given up hope, driving away with the loser's bumper sticker the last thing the world would see of you. OK, if that is how you see it. But I'm still here with a "Go Hillary" button on my lapel pin right next to the American flag. I'm waiting until the credits run to really see how this thing ends. Then and only then will I consider anything else! Obama, watch your back.

Ric Caric said...

To each their own.