Hillary by a Hair

Well, it's all over but the shouting and I've got self-congratulatory e-mails from both the Obama and the Clinton campaigns. Contrary to Kos, I think Super Tuesday will end up with Hillary getting a hairs-breadth edge.

In a lot of ways, it was a Red State/Blue State primary. Where Obama really cleaned up was in the red, red states like Idaho, Alaska, North Dakota, Georgia, and Alabama. Of course, it certainly would be wrong to deny that Obama is a strong candidate who is competitive on a national basis. After all, he also won in Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri,and his home state of Illinois. Likewise, I saw very few states where Obama didn't outpoll the leading Republican by big margins.

At this point, it wouldn't be too speculative to say that Obama's chances of winning the nomination are better than 50-50. But Obama's main strength today was in states where Democrats have had to listen to the Hillary-hatred of their neighbors for a long time.

Hillary proved her resilience as well in hanging onto core states like California, New York, and New Jersey in the face of the most recent surge of Barackomomentum. Tonight was also a big night for her.

In fact, I see Hillary as coming out very slightly ahead because there was real reason to fear that her candidacy would fall apart in the face of Obama's momentum. As was the case with New Hampshire, Hillary has shown that she isn't going to be swept away.

It also looks like Hillary is going to win the overall popular vote by a hair. As of about ten minutes ago, Obama had a 57,000 vote lead at 5,628,649 to 5,571,039 according to my hand tabulation. However, it looks like Hillary is going to overcome that lead in California.

Right now, it's neck and neck with Obama having an overall edge because of momentum. I'm for Hillary, but I think the race is great for the Democratic Party and progressive politics in this country. I can be pretty happy whoever wins.