Will Scooter Be Bigger than Abortion in 2008?

The Republicans don't recognize it, but the Scooter Libby commutation is going to hurt Republican presidential candidates in 2008.

I'm pretty sure that Giuliani, Romney, and Fred Thompson are all on record as supporting a pardon for Libby. It will come back to haunt them. Of course, the commutation will make a nice little attack ad in the general election. And the Democrats are going to be sitting on a mountain of small donor money from people who are disgusted with Bush and the right wing.

However, perhaps the commutation locks in votes for Democrats in another more profound way. Lots of evangelicals and conservative voters in Kentucky were predisposed to vote for Bush in 2004, but also convinced by Kerry's arguments about how poorly the war was being managed. What kept them in the Republican camp was abortion. All of a sudden, they decided that they could not vote for anyone who supported abortion rights. In this sense, abortion locked in their vote for George Bush even though they were 51-40 in their own heads.

Scooter's commutation might be something that "locks in" Democratic votes in the same way. The tide's turning toward the Democrats, but people are still open to GOP personalities and arguments. This shows in the head to head surveys among the candidates. However, the public disgust over the commutation of Scooter Libby might be something that locks in a lot of wavering voters to the Democratic side. The Scooter issues is not so big in itself but it might remind wavering voters of everything that's disgusting about the Bush administration.

There's a lot to be disgusted with.