After Maliki, the Deluge

It looks like the government of Nouri al-Maliki is getting ready to collapse in Iraq. An umbrella group called "The Iraq Project" is preparing a no-confidence vote on the Maliki government for July 15. The "Iraq Project" is led by Sunni politicians and probably includes the Kurds and secular Shiites. According to a CBS Report, their basic idea is to put technocrats rather than political party people in charge of government ministries.

CBS doesn't mention this, but there was talk last January and February of the Bush administration trying to ease Maliki out in favor of "a moderate alliance." It sounds like "The Iraq Project" is the same group. The Bush wants a more moderate and secular government in Iraq for several reasons. Perhaps most importantly, Shiite religious parties like Maliki's Dawa Party, Moqtada al-Sadr's bloc, and SCIRI (Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council) all have close ties with Iran and would be extremely angry at an American attack on Iran. That serves to constrain American military action against the Iranians.

Another important consideration for the Bush administration is that the Shiite religious parties are barely tolerant of the American military presence in Iraq and will want all American troops out at the first glimpse of stability. The Bush administration views Sunni politicians, the Kurds, and Ayad Allawi's secular Shiites as more friendly to American interests.

Finally, the leading role of the Shiite religious parties in the government has resulted in the infiltration of the Shiite militias into government ministries, the police, and the Iraqi Army. As a result, the government has been heavily implicated in the Shiite death squads that have been targeting Sunni communities around Iraq.

So, replacing the Shiite religious parties with a secular coalition more attuned to American interests would be a good thing. No?

Definitely not! In fact, it would be the biggest disaster we've fobbed off on the Iraqis yet.

First, there would be the decision-making problems. The kind of moderate alliance projected by the Iraq Project would have such a diverse membership and so many conflicting interests that decision-making would be paralyzed the moment the enthusiasm of taking power wore off. If people think Maliki is indecisive, wait to you see his moderate successor.

Moreover, the Iraq Project has almost no popular base. The key asset of the Shiite religious parties has always been that they have a strong political base among the majority Shiite population. To the contrary, the Sunni politicians are not even as much of a force among the Sunni population as the criminal gangs allied with al-Qaeda. Ayad Allawi's party doesn't have much support either. The only part of the Iraq Project that has popular support is the Kurdish segment. Having no popular base means that nobody is going to be loyal to the Iraq Project during hard times.

And what else is there in Iraq but hard times?

Of course, the worst problem with the Iraq Project is that it will result in the alienation of the majority Shiite population from the government. That's bad enough in any case, but there are tens of thousands of men in the militias connected to the Shiite political parties. Because the Shiite religious parties are in power, those men are connected to the government. What's going to happen to the Shiite militias when the Iraq Project is in charge?

Are they just going to lay down their arms?

Not likely. But any attempt to forcibly disarm the militias would create even higher levels of sectarian strife in Iraq. The Shiite militias and the whole Shiite population would lose their stake in governing and gain enormous incentives for armed rebellion. In many ways, the Sunni resurrection has run it's course as Sunni tribal leaders have decided the al-Qaeda is even worse than the American occupiers. If the Iraq Project gains power, there is an excellent chance that the Sunni insurrection will be succeeded by a Shiite insurrection.

The current government is a prescription for failure--The Iraq Project is a prescription for disaster.