The Woes of the Third Tier Democrat

John Dickerson of Slate reviews the various ways that Bill Richardson flubbed his interview on Meet the Press yesterday and ends by emphasizing in a mocking way that Richardson will have to change his message. He used to ask voters to "give him a second look." But "after Sunday's Meet the Press, the message will have to be: OK, how about a third look?

In fact, Democratic primary voters aren't even going to give Richardson a first look let alone a second or third look. The same is the case with Chris Dodd and Joe Biden let alone Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel. Even though there's seven months until the Iowa caucuses, it's clear by now that they're all wasting their time. The Democratic campaign is structured in such a way that none of them has a ghost of a chance to win or even contend.

The problem for the third tier candidates is that Democratic voters are happy with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as first tier candidates. They both have strong national reputations, tremendous media exposure, lots of fund-raising ability, and strong campaign teams. Given the strength of Clinton and Obama candidacies, it would be very difficult to imagine either Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, or Joe Biden catching lightning in a bottle and rising from their current 1-3% to become contenders in any case.

However, what closes the deal on third-tier irrelevance is John Edwards is the clear heir-apparent to first tier status if something happens to Hillary or Obama. And if something happened to Hillary, Obama, and John Edwards, Al Gore would reluctantly enter the race to ensure a Democratic victory in what promises to be a good year for Democratic candidates.

In other words, the third-tier candidates have no chance whatsoever. They might as well be trying to ice skate in a hot tub.