Bush: Creating New Liberals Every Second

BUSH'S NEW LOW. Last Friday, President Bush's approval rating was 28% in a Newsweek poll. It's hard to say what was driving Bush's numbers down. It may be gas prices. It may be the combination of bigger insurgent attacks and more American casualties in Iraq. Or it may be that the recent Democratic and Republican debates have focused attention on the President.

KILLING THE REPUBLICANS SOFTLY. Of course, it's probably all of the above. The Bush administration seems to have created a perfect storm of negativity for itself. And now, the negativity surrounding Bush is spilling over to Republican candidates for the presidency. The same Newsweek poll has Giuliani losing to all three of the major Democratic candidates--Hillary Clinton by 3, Obama by 7, and Edwards by 4. The Landslide Logic that RSI identified last December still applies. As President Bush becomes progressively more unpopular, he becomes a bigger drag on Republican presidential candidates. What makes it worse if you're a Republican is that Bush's popularity among Republicans makes it necessary for GOP candidates to pledge themselves to Bush and the war. Like President Bush, Republican candidates are getting caught in a perfect storm of negativity and their numbers will eventually start looking like his.

THE LIBERAL CREATION MACHINE. Daniel Gross has an observation about liberals in today's Slate.

"In my neck of the woods, the heartland of Bushenfreude, new bumper stickers have begun to appear on the Audis, Volvos, and Priuses driven by liberal-leaning financial-services professionals: "1.20.09."

When did "financial-services professionals" become so liberal that their bumper-stickers are displaying the date Bush leaves office? Of course, there are many factors in the drift of wealthy Northeasterners to the left--the right-to-life movement, creationism, the Terry Schiavo case, and the Republican war on science. However, the biggest thing is the Bush administration and the war in Iraq. It's creating a new wave of liberals out of the traditionally Republican constituency of wealthy Northern suburbanites.

Another much smaller constituency that's becoming more liberal is scientists. Scientists used to be a conservative group because of their discomfort with race politics, gender politics, and the "touchy-feely" dimension of liberalism. No more. Now that conservatives are waging war on evolutionary theory and climate science and the Republican Party has become the party of ignorance, scientists are starting to become more liberal.

TWO ROUTES TO LANDSLIDE. The Bush administration, the Republican Party, and the conservative movement are depressing the Republican vote in two ways. The right wing has made themselves generally repugnant with their incompetence and corruption. At the same time, the right has been rapidly splitting off constituencies like northern suburbanites and professional scientists from their coalition. The result is that Bush's approval numbers are down in the 20's and the numbers of Republican presidential candidates are beginning to head in the same direction.

The ultimate destination is a Democratic landslide in 2008.