Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Another Big Day: Here's the Breakdown


Rahm Emanuel tries for a pre-emptive surrender on the public option for health insurance. Like many "bi-partisanship" Democrats, Emanuel views the left as more of an enemy than the GOP.

But Obama walks him back. This isn't 1994. The public option is still on.


South Carolina Republicans decide not to ask for Mark Sanford's resignation--something about "earning back the trust" of fellow Republicans by providing the phone numbers of hot Argentinian hookers--'er, I mean, "finding love in unexpected places."

Two Sarah Palin headlines: 1. Michael Steele claims "Palin is off the table for 2012." 2. Campaign contributions take off at "Sarah for President--2012."

Glenn Beck is looking for the connection there.


The Quinnipiac polling organization put out a poll with the news that 69% of the American public wanted to have a public option for health insurance. That's good news for Obama and bad news for Rahm Emanuel and the "Pre-Emptive Surrender Caucus" among Senate Democrats. It's also bad news for the health insurance industry, Republicans, and the tea-bag activists who think the Republicans are too liberal.

Quinnipiac goes on to report that only 28% of the public wants to switch their health insurance to the public plan. I'm in that 28% because I want to pay what will probably be lower rates for better health insurance. Fixed on the 50% wins elections idea, Quinnipiac thinks that the public option won't be that popular. But 28% of the national market in just about anything is pretty good. The federal government might be starting out as the "market leader."

OBAMA IN 2012.

Quinnipiac also has numbers showing President Obama as declining in popularity in Ohio and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight agrees that Obama will be in trouble if the economy doesn't turn around.

But I don't think so--mostly because it doesn't look like the Republicans are going to put up a viable alternative. The top tier potential Republican candidates are Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee. Out of those three, the only one who could hope to get over 40% in a general election is Romney. Palin was never going to win a national election and that never has gone to never cubed since last Friday. Neither is Huckabee.

The second tier of potential Republican candidates is occupied mostly by Newt Gingrich. But he'll never get above 15% with Republicans let alone anyone else.

That leaves a third tier of candidates populated by the eminently mentionable Tim Pawlenty and the now "unmentionable" Mark Sanford and John Ensign. Another member of the third tier--Jon Huntsmann--gave up on the GOP and left the country for an ambassadorship in China.

In my opinion, the 2012 election is not going to be very competitive. Early on, I'd have to say Obama by at least 10 over Romney and at least 20 over anyone else.


It appears that conservatives are eager to bomb our new Iranian protester friends now that they appear to have lost their struggle with Ahmadinejad. But that's not quite accurate. They've eager for the ISRAELIS to bomb Iran. Newsmax has a "pity the poor Israelis" article entitled "Israel Faces Bombing Iran Alone" on their site. Unbelievable.

The American right has few talents, but I have to admit that they do have a gift for super-audacious hypocrisy.

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