Election Short-Cuts

Last week's GOP navel gazing boils down to this question.

Do the Republicans have short-term rooted in the unpopularity of the Bush administration or long-term problems rooted in the unpopularity of conservative ideology?

But the answer is both.

For those who see the problems as only short term, the recent election was hopeful because Obama only beat John McCain by 6.7%. McCain rallied a conservative base that added up to 46% of the electorate even in the worst conditions of an unpopular war, financial meltdown, and hostility to President Bush. In this context, Republican optimists believe that conservatives should be able to rally a majority when conditions get more favorable.

But this is the rub for the optimists. The Bush administration is not going to stop being unpopular on Jan. 20. The war in Iraq isn't going to be less unpopular. The same with the Bush administration's war on science, ignoring the environment, and refusal to deal with climate change. Figures like George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Alberto Gonzales are going to live on in American politics but aren't going to get any less unpopular.

The Bush administration is a long term rather than a short-term problem for the Republicans.

So is Barack Obama.

The McCain campaign was able to effectively raise questions about Barack Obama being an "empty celebrity," "pal of terrorists," and "socialist" during the campaign. But now that Obama's going to be president, those questions aren't going to count anymore.

Worse for the Republicans, there's a lot that Obama can do to make the broader American public happy. At the top of the list is withdrawing from Iraq, but closing Guantanamo, ending torture, cutting middle-class taxes, getting a start on alternative energy, addressing climate change, are all going to be popular as well.

That's how the short-term trend is primed to be a long-term trend.