But what about the rest of the voting public?
The final answer on the effect of the Palin nomination isn't in yet, but the St. Petersburg Times in Florida finds that a panel of independent voters and some moderate Republicans are so offended by the Palin nomination that they have moved off the fence and have started supporting Obama.
Although the Palin nomination has created conservative enthusiasm for the McCain campaign, it has also created a number of problems for McCain. Perhaps the most immediate difficulty is that the "questions" surrounding Palin have put McCain on the defensive with the media. Distaste for Palin's mocking demeanor and strident social conservatism has also helped Obama's fundraising (bias alert: I sent $50 to the Obama campaign the day after Palin's acceptance speech) and probably solidified support for Obama among Democrats.Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.
Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin.
"The one thing that frightens me more than anything else are the ideologues. We've seen too many," said 80-year-old Air Force veteran Donn Spegal, a lifelong Republican from St. Petersburg, who sees McCain's new running mate as the kind of "wedge issue" social conservative that has made him disenchanted with his party.
If the Palin nomination is starting to push swing voters away from McCain in important states like Florida, Palin might be the rock that gradually drags the McCain campaign under.
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2 comments:
The Palin pick was evidence that, 6 months after effectively winning his party's nomination, McCain still needed to run towards his base. She was a demonstration to social conservatives that McCain would back them completely (and ultimately, pick judges in the Palin mode if given the chance).
He might have picked any number of intelligent Republican women in her place - but they were all apparently unacceptable to the Dobson wing of the party.
That he needed to shore up his base at this late date was a very bad sign for McCain's chances.
McCain's "base problem" has two dimensions. McCain has to appeal to his religious right, neo-conservative ideological base in the Republican Party. However, that base is relatively odious to the rest of the voting population. When McCain appeals to the religious right and neo-cons, he forfeits the support of moderates, independents, and weak partisans. Palin generally adapts a provocative neo-con approach to things ("tough" to conservatives, "bullying" to liberals). That doesn't sit well with non-conservatives of any stripe. You're right. McCain's in trouble, but I don't know how he could have avoided it.
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