Some Biden Advantages

A lot of the commentary about Joe Biden that I've seen since Saturday's announcement of Biden as Obama's VP choice is nonsense that reflects a poor understanding of how American politics works.

Biden No Wise Man. Most importantly, Joe Biden is not going to be Obama's "wise man" on foreign policy in the way that Dick Cheney and Condoleeza Rice have been for Bush. There's a big difference between Obama and Bush. Obama knows a lot about the world and is interested in finding out more. Bush knew nothing and was proud of it.

If Obama is elected, he'll have a Secretary of State, a National Security Adviser, and other foreign policy advisers. Obama might listen to advisers, but my guess is that people will have influence to the extent to which they pose ways to make Obama's own ideas workable. The question about Biden's "influence" will not be how much he knows about foreign policy, but how much he's in sync with Obama's basic instincts. But it isn't likely that Obama and Biden will be in sync. Obama's basic instinct is toward self-control while Biden has trouble with self-discipline. That will make it tough for Biden to be much of an influence.

Biden's "Pennsylvania Roots." Another myth. Biden isn't going to get any more votes for Obama in Pennsylvania because he was born in Scranton (die-hard Republican country by the way) than if he had never seen Pennsylvania. Biden's family moved from Scranton to Delaware in 1952 for godssakes.

The reason that Biden isn't going to help Obama in Pennsylvania is that being from Delaware almost guarantees that he's not going to be any better known in Pennsylvania than anywhere else. Because Delaware borders on the Philadelphia area, news from Delaware can't filter through the enormous clutter of "Philadelphia news" to other regions in Pennsylvania. People in Scranton are much more in tune with New Jersey and Binghamton, NY than they are with Delaware.

Biden's Catholicism. Biden's Catholicism isn't going to help him with Catholic voters any more than John Kerry's did. The reason is that Biden is pro-choice on abortion and that his pro-choice stance will cause controversy which will drown out any sense of Catholic identity. That of course is unless McCain nominates Romney (Mormon) or Lieberman (Jewish). Then, the question of religious identity will be up in the air in unpredictable ways.

The Biden Advantage. But at the end of the day, I think Biden is a plus for Obama. Anything Biden says critically about McCain will be immediately amplified into the public realm through the blogs, cable media, and mainstream media. Given that Biden has a lot of good one-liners about Bush foreign policy, Iraq, and McCain's general recklessness, there's a chance that Biden's comments can dominate several news cycles to the advantage of the Obama campaign. If Obama let's Biden talk, I think Biden will be a 1-3 point plus for the Obama ticket.

Biden has other advantages for Obama as well. In a certain way, selecting Biden makes Obama look "safe" on race. Biden has made some racially inappropriate remarks (calling him "articulate" and "clean") about Obama, but Obama was so little concerned with this kind of petty stereotyping that he was willing to nominate Biden anyway. That's something that could reassure white swing-voters that Obama isn't a "resentful" kind of black person and make them more inclined to vote for him.

Nominating Biden also helps nail down an Obama advantage on maturity. Although Biden himself if not that much of a grown-up, nominating a "heavy hitter" makes Obama look even more like a grown-up. One of the curious things about the presidential campaign is how Barack Obama's almost preternatural maturity and self-control are playing out. It would have taken extremely outsized confidence for Obama to choose Hillary (especially with the Bill problem), but it still took a great deal of confidence for Obama to choose Biden. Given that John McCain is not a particularly mature guy (given his wise guy antics, temper tantrums, etc.), selecting Biden might help Obama open up a maturity gap.

Given that it's a close race, any advantage that Obama can find is significant and Biden helps.