The Forward Leader vs the Default Option

Liberal blogger Matt Yglesias reminds me of something I've thought for a long time. Noting high favorability ratings for both Obama and McCain, Yglesias claims that "before this campaign started, John McCain was the most popular politician in America and Barack Obama was a widely admired rising political star."

It's a good insight, but I'd go a little farther. John McCain has been the most popular politician in the United States since 2000. As a result of the 2000 campaign, McCain had a very strong base of support among moderates and independents and was also liked and trusted on the left. In fact, I believe that McCain was more broadly popular than either Gore and Bush during the 2000 general election campaign. The only constituency that disliked and distrusted McCain was the conservatives who dominated the Republican Party. Of course, that was enough to keep him from winning the Republican nomination. But McCain was a dominant political figure.

McCain remained highly popular through the beginning of the 2008 election campaign. That popularity was somewhat "well-worn" as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama emerged as popular Democrats and McCain's began to strongly defend the war in Iraq. But McCain was still popular enough that he could serve as a "default option" for Republicans when alternative candidates like Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney proved to be unpopular.

The durability of McCain's popularity has a significant impact on the race between him and Obama. Most important, McCain's personal popularity has made it possible for him to stay even in the race despite popular disdain for the Bush administration and broad hostility toward the Republican Party and conservativism as an ideology. John McCain has been able to sustain the "McCain Brand" despite associating himself with damaged goods in the Republican Party.

As a result, one of the questions for the Republican convention next week is whether the assocition with Republican figures like Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and various Republican senators and members of Congress is going to help or hurt McCain.

I suspect the latter.

The durability of McCain's personal popularity also defines some of the tactics around Barack Obama. Obama has slightly higher "favorable" ratings than McCain at present, one of the most important objectives of Obama's campaign has to be solidifying his "favorability" ratings as voters get to know him. Obama needs to prove himself over and over again in order for people to fully trust their positive perceptions of him. That's why Obama's overseas trip was important for him. Questions had been raised concerning Obama's ability to lead in foreign affairs. Obama needed to show that he could do it.

This is why Obama needs to keep having an affirmative, positive dimension to his campaign. He wants to keep reinforcing his general favorability.

At the same time, Obama and his surrogates need to convince voters that John McCain is no longer the politician they grew to respect between 2000 and 2004. It's not so much "tearing down" McCain as convincing people that McCain is no longer the politician they originally liked and trusted. Last night at the Democratic convention, Joe Biden was especially effective at contrasting Barack Obama's positions to McCain's to show that McCain's views had become exactly the same as President Bush's.

Conversely, much of what the McCain campaign is about is an effort to encourage voters to question their own favorable impressions of Barack Obama. In some ways, McCain's campaign reminds me of the efforts of the Los Angeles police in relation to the Rodney King trial back in the early 90's. Because the police officers were shown beating Rodney King on videotape, their defense attorneys focused their efforts on convincing jurors to believe the police accounts rather than their own eyes. This is what McCain is doing with Obama as well. At bottom, the McCain campaign's repeated sneering at Obama as a "celebrity" is an effort to convince people that their positive impressions of Obama's speeches and campaigning are wrong and that Obama is "really" a shallow Britney Spears/Paris Hilton kind of person.

For Obama, this means that he needs to redouble his efforts to solidify the connection between himself as a leader with his largely popular positions on the issues. Obama's mainstream Democratic views on the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the economy, taxes, social security, and education are all broadly in line with American public opinion. Currently, Obama is seen as an intelligent and charismatic leader and plausible presidential candidate. To seal the deal, Obama needs to establish himself as the political leader who can effectively champion these important issues over the coming eight years. In other words, Obama needs to show himself as "the man" (to quote Jack White from The Root) for an ambitious, forward-looking political agenda.

Otherwise, a majority of voters could vote for McCain as a "default option" they know and trust.