Monday, April 02, 2007

Fox Gives Mitt a Subtle Boost

The Fox web site reports Mitt Romney as leading the Republican money race with $23 mill and then gives ol' Mitt a subtle little boost by claiming that Mitt is running third to Giuliani and McCain.

Nothing could be further from the truth. In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Mitt is tied for fifth with Sam Brownback behind Giuliani, McCain, Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson.

For some reason beyond my ability to discern, media outlets like Fox have decided that Mitt Romney is a "first tier" candidate. But the poll numbers have never backed it up and Romney is now stuck in third tier status.

The Republican First Tier:
Giuliani
McCain

The Republican Second Tier:
Gingrich
Fred Thompson

The Republican Third Tier:
Mitt Romney
Sam Brownback
Tommy Thompson
Tom Tancredo
Duncan Hunter
Mike Huckabee
James Gilmore
Duke Cunningham

If Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich actually run, all the third tier candidates are sunk because both Thompson and Gingrich are media hounds.

After that, the big question will be who survives the tsunami of negative advertising that will be descending on the Republican primary.

If I had $50 bucks, I would bet $25 on McCain, $15 on Gingrich, and $10 on Giuliani. Because he lacks both early speed and a big finish, I don't see Mitt Romney as finishing in the money.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well since you sited one poll you must be correct, but I tend to believe most polls that show him around 8,9,10%. Or the Southern Republican Leadership Conference where he finished second or the Conservative Political Action Conference where he finished first. He is the leading fundraiser. In Iowa he his polling around 10,11% and in New Hampshire around 19,20%. So maybe those numbers make him a top tier candidate.

Ric Caric said...

Even at 10%, Romney is not in the same league as Giuliani and McCain. In other words, he's not top tier. I also haven't seen any polls where Romney is ahead of Gingrich. More significantly, the USA Today/Gallup poll was the first poll released after the Fred Thompson buzz began. Romney's had his roll-out, he's benefitted from the media buzz, and he's got a lot of money, but he sank as soon as another flavor emerged. As I stated in another post, Mitt should quit.

Anonymous said...

Well it seems you are changing the rules in the middle of your argument. You again sited one pole, I sited numerous. Most of these polls show Newt and Romney statistically tied. For a man that pulls 10% in a majority of polls I find it odd that you put him with candidates that poll at 1% and less. Any credible political analyst would obviously say that Romney is top tier because of his ability to raise money and his connections to the Olympics which polls extremely well. No one is saying his is winning, they are just saying that he will have a say in how things go, as his poll numbers of 10% in Iowa and 19% in New Hampshire say.

Ric Caric said...

I don't think you realize the way that the Fred Thompson buzz has hurt Romney. Romney was at 8% in the Gallup poll but sunk to three while Thompson registered at 12%. There will be other polls, but such a slide is very bad news for Romney. I don't think that money is going to make much difference for Mitt. Republican voters seem to be weirded out by Mormonism and unimpressed with Romney's determined flip-flopping on the issues. Personally, I don't think Mormonism is THAT weird but Republican voters seem to think differently.

Anonymous said...

Other polls just released show Romney at 8%, 6%, and 9%. This is with Fred Thompson in the poll. I fully understand the impact of Fred Thompson.

Aaron said...

As a matter of fact the only major poll that showed Romney down as low as you showed him is the one you sited. Other polls from 3/21 - 3/29 show:

Rasmussen

Giuliani 26
McCain 16
Thompson 14
Romney 8
Gingrich 11

Fox News

Giuliani 36
McCain 20
Thompson 9
Romney 6
Gingrich 6

Time

Giuliani 35
McCain 22
Thompson --
Romney 11
Gingrich 12

Zogby

Giuliani 27
McCain 13
Thompson 9
Romney 9
Gingrich --

Gallup

Giuliani 31
McCain 22
Thompson 12
Romney 3
Gingrich 8

Pew

Giuliani 33
McCain 23
Thompson --
Romney 8
Gingrich 7

*Source: Real Clear Politics

I'm no Romney fan, but he has been up and down in the polls for a while, and his fundraising is impressive for such comparitively low poll numbers. I don't think Romney will pull it off tho, even with all of the money. A real conservative is going to win the GOP primary and that is why people like Thompson and Newt take numbers away from people like Romney. People may not know too much about Thompson, but their willingness to ditch the others and side with a guy who appears to be more conservative right now and is only "thinking" about running, should concern the non conservatives in the pack. I agree with National Review that McCain could have time to re-prove himself to conservatives. Giuliani Doesn't have that ability and Romney may not either.

Anonymous said...

Proven Wrong Again. A new poll conducted by the University of Iowa shows:
Giuliani: 20
McCain: 21
Romney: 17
Gingrich: 3
Thompson: 5

Ric Caric said...

I don't think that either Iowa or New Hampshire are going to be very relevant in 2008. There are too many big states following closely on the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primary. That's why the surge of Edwards in New Hampshire isn't very important either.

Looking at the numbers provided by Aaron, it appears that Romney lags behind Thompson and Gingrich in every state where they both are listed. It therefore appears to me that Romney is at the bottom of the second tier behind two guys who haven't announced, haven't had a media rollout, and haven't been raising money.

All of that is a really bad sign for Romney.

I stand by my position that Romney's only hope is that neither F. Thompson nor Gingrich run. At that point, Romney's slugger's chance would be to unleash a barrage of negative advertising on Giuliani or McCain while hoping that evangelical voters don't coalesce behind someone like Brownback or Huckabee.

I don't see how Romney's chances would be anything but negligible.