Hillary Wins. Hillary Clinton won today's Kentucky primary 65%-30%. It was a total win in the sense that Hillary won every county except Louisville and Lexington and came within ten points even in the cities. Out here in Morehead, she won 80-17 in our county (Rowan) with Obama only pulling down a little over 700 votes. It seems like Mrs. RSI and her legions of friends were the only Obama voters in town.
Hillary Pulls Ahead! Even with Obama's 57-42% win in Oregon, Hillary was still more than 180,000 votes up for the day. That means that she's ahead on two popular vote measures according to RealClearPolitics--popular vote with Florida and Michigan votes counted and popular vote with Florida, Michigan, and some of Obama's caucus states counted.
These measures don't mean anything in terms of who's being nominated. It's going to be Obama. But Obama's victory is starting to develop a little bit of a George Bush 2000 aura about it. Obama's getting nominated as a result of the caucus quirks in the system just as Bush was elected as a result of the quirks of the electoral college.
At the same time, Hillary's defeat is a little bit like the Mondale and Dukakis losses in that Hillary didn't hit her stride until it was too late.
The Bell Tolls After June 3. The last two primaries are on June 3 and I expect Hillary to end her candidacy fairly soon after that. Hillary's gotten more than 17,000,000 votes. I think she should be the VP nominee and that she would be the VP nominee if she weren't married to a loose cannon like Bill Clinton. What I hope is that her and Obama meet and see if they can't work out some basis for her to be No. 2. If they can't work out a mutually acceptable arrangement, then I can see Obama nominating someone like Ted Strickland. But I think they should try.
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4 comments:
...just as Bush was elected as a result of the quirks of the electoral college
Your comparison is ridiculous.
George Bush was elected after the Supreme Court shut down the Florida recount. There was no question that the winner of the electoral college would be the president. The question was whether a legitimate count could be taken at all.
Obama is winning by the standards set down last summer and which were signed off on by all the major campaigns. Clinton kept her concern for those voters to herself until it was in her personal interest to do otherwise.
Clinton's "popular vote" standard would penalize every state that chose a caucus and also assumes that Obama gets zero backing from Michigan, despite the fact that 238,000 voted for "Uncommitted" explicitly with Obama in mind. That more than makes up for all of the RCP tallies.
What is ridiculous is this notion that Barak Obama will ever be permitted to supplant Hillary Rodham Clinton. How dare you suggest such a thing?!? You are no better than those cut-and-run superdelegates who have no loyalty and no guts. You once supported her but now you are as cowardly and depserate to play it safe as the other Obama sycophants. True courage would be to suck it up and keep fighting for Hillary. Obama should absolutely not be accepted as the Democratic nominee at our convention unless Hillary were to cut-and-run. That won't happen. You people have spent far too much time in your ivory towers. You have forgotten that the Clintons don't give up.
There was a time when I felt that Barak Obama was a real asset to the party and would have a bright future. He has ruined that future. Anyone who doesn't have their head up their ass would have enough common sense to see that it is far too early in his career for Barak Obama to pull something like this.
"The presidency," somone (can't recall who), "is not an internship, it's not on-the-job training." Then there's the win/lose factor. He can't beat John McCain. Hillary can and will, easily.
Obama can't win Ohio,Pennsylvania, WVA, KY, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, or Nevada. Those are certanties.
He's also weak in the usual Democratic strongholds; California, NY, WA, etc.
I think the biggest problem here is one of perception. As I stated, college campuses seem to be VERY out of step with the kind of meat-and-potatoes blue-collar people our party should win but tends to lose. Hillary connects very well with those people. I know whereof and of whom I speak. I live in what is a very good representation of that part of America and the longer Obama hangs on with his arrogance and utter lack of experience, the more ordinary folks will come not not only dislike him as they already do, they will utterly loath and detest him as I already do.
I detest him for different reasons. I abhor him for ripping the party apart. He's out of turn. He can wait 8 years,and still be young enough and vital enough to be presidential material. Hillary can bring America back now. This is HER TURN!! She has earned eight years as president and by 2016, Obama will have aquired the necessary wisdom, knowledge, and experience to do the job. Obama 2016, sure. Obama 2008, BIG MISTAKE.
My contempt for the super-delegates who have deserted her does not begin to compare to my contempt for your desertion of Hillary. Are all your stands made on quicksand?
But then, you are no longer relevent. As I said, this is Hillary's time and she will take it all the way to the convention where I'd sooner see her fight it out to give in to an arrogant upstart like Obama as you seem to have done.
If Hillary Rodham Clinton is not the nominee, we lose. It's that simple. A vote for Obama now is a vote for McCain in November. If Hillary gives Obama her blessing at the convention in Denver then and only then will he have my grudging support. Otherwise, for me, and for the ordinary folks I know who have stated that they will not vote at all if Obama is the nominee or have stated that they'd cross over to McCain if Obama is our nominee I can affirmatively state that for my part there is no way in hell I will support a man who is ripping the party apart all for the sake of his massive ego. His nomination cedes The White House to the GOP four more years or God help us eight more years all becuase Barak Obama couldn't wait his turn.
Get with Hillary or get the hell out of her way!!
So, Anonymous hates Obama for "not waiting his turn." That's deep.
To Jinchi,
I recognize that Barack Obama is winning according to the rules. Likewise, I've consistently given him credit for running a better campaign than Hillary. Obama and his people saw the angle with the caucus states, pushed them hard, and got an edge that they've been able to sustain. More power to them and I'll be contributing and working for the Obama campaign once he clinches the nomination.
But Hillary does have an argument about the popular vote. Even the number you (legitimately) cite about Michigan wouldn't pull Obama back ahead. Likewise, the primary/caucus system is a quirky way to choose a presidential candidate. As was the case with Bush/Gore and the electoral college, the anti-democratic quirks of the caucus systems haven't made much difference in the past because there hasn't been a nomination battle this close. Now, it should be obvious though that the caucuses should be replaced by primaries.
Good to hear from you as always.
I've long been an advocate of a popular vote majority for electing our presidents and I wish we would get rid of the caucus system.
But you can't go back after the fact, combine the totals from wildly different systems and call it a "popular vote". No state would have used a caucus system if that had been the criteria at the start. It effectively strips them of 80-90% of their weight.
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