Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Obama: The Democratic McCain?

According to the Washington Post, the Obama campaign is focused on getting independents and moderate Republicans to turn out for them at the Iowa caucuses tomorrow. Assumes that about 45% of Democratic caucusers would be independents, the DeMoines Register poll shows Obama ahead of Hillary by seven points.

This might bring the Obama campaign into a little bit of focus as the John McCain campaign of 2008, appealing more to independents and moderates from the other party than to regular Democrats. Perhaps Obama should call his bus "The Straight-Talk Express."

That would create an interesting "sub-primary" in New Hampshire between Obama and McCain himself as they both fight for the independent vote.

But that model didn't work for McCain in 2000. Why would it work for Obama in 2008? Sure, McCain cleaned up in New Hampshire, but he bottomed out in South Carolina. That wouldn't happen to Obama because of the strong black vote in South Carolina. But what about states like Florida, Michigan, and California? If Obama can't appeal to regular Democratic voters in those kinds of states, he'll basically be running to be vice-president.


Anonymous said...

He is the next Joe Lieberman, what I hear:

jinchi said...

Who says Obama can't appeal to regular Democratic voters in Florida, Michigan and California?

McCain had a Republican orchestrated hate campaign launched against him in 2000 - check the comments of Limbaugh and the FOX news machine. The term RINO was invented for him.

Obama, on the other hand draws thousands of supporters anywhere he goes. There's no "I hate Obama" movement on the left.

Ric Caric said...

Hi Jinchi--I don't think there's a "hate Obama" movement at all. I like Obama a lot and paid for 5 people to go with me to Lexington, KY to see him. But the last survey stuff I saw had Obama drawing his support from young voters, independents, and African-Americans. The only one of those groups that is strongly identified as Democrats are African-Americans. I view that as a 30% strategy which is the kind of vote that McCain often got after South Carolina. You're right that McCain was savaged by the right and that that won't happen to Obama. But I still don't think Obama's playing a winning hand.