What Happens When We Withdraw?

I'm always surprised that so few people think of Iraq in relation to the long-term civil wars in Central and South America. People always jump to Bosnia and Rwanda as models for what will happen in Iraq. they should be looking at Columbia, Guatemala, and El Salvador instead. But I believe that what happens when we withdraw will be shaped by the banana republic characteristics of Iraq.

1. Iraq will have a weak, corrupt government with limited control over Iraqi territory. There is little reason to think that Iraq will have anything other than a Shiite government. There are two sources of corruption. First, traditionally downtrodden Shiite elites are looking at the government as a mechanism for acquiring "real" private wealth for the first time. Second, the government has become a means to finance the Shiite militias that are integrated within the government structure. Iraqi governments will not be not strong enough to exercise much control over either Sunni or Kurdish territories. They won't be able to exercise much control over Shiite militias as well.

2. The Iraqi government won't collapse and will be too strong for insurgents to overthrow. The al-Maliki government itself is weak, but the Shiite militias that are its true power base are too strong for either al-Qaeda or Sunni insurgents to overthrow. One of the unacknowledged facts of the sectarian civil war of 2006 was that the Shiite militias had the upper hand over Sunni insurgents in and around Baghdad. When we leave the Shiite militias will re-assert themselves in ways that keep either al-Qaeda or the Sunni insurgents from overthrowing the government. Actually, al-Qaeda might not be much of a threat in Iraq after an American withdrawal. There are only 1200 to 2,000 al-Qaeda fighters in Iraq and it seems that Sunni tribal forces are becoming increasingly intolerant of al-Qaeda's operations in Sunni areas. After an American withdrawal lowers the motivation for al-Qaeda volunteers to come to Iraq, al-Qaeda probably will become even less of a factor.

3. The Negligible Genocide factor. There are a lot of worries about a genocide if the U. S. leaves. There shouldn't be. Genocide occurs when one side has overwhelming power in relation to the other. That's not the case in Iraq. The Shiite militias would have the upper hand after an American withdrawal, but the Sunni populations are very well armed and more than capable of defending themselves. Instead, the situation looks like it has a potential for a long drawn out civil war like the one going on in Columbia.

I can see a role for American forces in Iraq. We can help the Iraqis guard against external invasions, help train the formal Iraqi military, and shield against any dangers from al-Qaeda. Otherwise, I think the Iraqis will manage on their own. They'll manage poorly but they'll still manage.