Public Opinion Holds Through Initial Troop Withdrawal Salvos

A recently released Pew Center poll shows the public supporting legislation to set a troop withdrawal deadline by a margin of 59-34%. In a way, that's no surprise. Exactly the same percentage supported the idea of setting a troop withdrawal deadline last week.

However, that's good news for the Democratic leadership because it means that public support for a withdrawal deadline has held steady after a weekend of high profile condemnations of the House legislation by President Bush, Dick Cheney, and right-wing commentators.

If there's a showdown over the supplemental appropriations bill, it will come after the President vetoes the legislation or the Senate is unable to pass the House bill. I haven't seen any media treatment of this issue yet, but the question is not whether the House can override a Bush veto. It's obvious that the House can't override.

Instead, the key question is whether the House will then approve another Iraq funding bill more to the Bush administration's liking. Both the mainstream media and the left-wing blogosphere seem to assume that a Bush veto would the House would be forced to pass a bill without a deadline or other restrictions.

That is not the case at all.

The House could refuse to pass another Iraq funding bill at all. In effect, the House Democrats then would be cutting off money for the war by default, and, in effect, vetoing the war. More likely, the Democratic leadership would use their leverage to try to force Bush to accept a deadline and other restrictions if he wants the money.

This is where the House Democratic leadership would need popular support. Presidents usually win these kinds of showdowns with Congress with Bill Clinton's triumph over Newt Gingrich during the government shutdown of 1995 being the most recent example. If the Democrats hopoe to win a showdown with Bush, they'll need to keep a decent plurality of public opinion on their side.

Consequently, it's very much to their benefit that the Democrats are starting out ahead 59%-34%. A 25% margin will be hard for President Bush to overcome.