There have been a number of stories out on whether Hillary Clinton has too much baggage to win a general election in 2008. Here's an indexed video report on Fox. Hillary certainly has baggage. She's hated by conservatives, burdened by her vote for the bill authorizing the use of force in Iraq, and still has the legacy of Bill Clinton's peccadillos hanging over her among other things.
However, it's ultimately deceptive to weigh Hillary Clinton's political baggage in isolation. Barack Obama has the baggage of inexperience, a deceptive land deal, and suspicion over whether he's black enough. I have problems with Obama because I don't think he's aggressive enough with the right-wing.
That's not all.
The major Republican candidates are all going to be loaded down with the failure of the war in Iraq and the general aura of sleaze surrounding the Republican Party. The surge will be an especially big problem. It's tremendously unpopular with voters now and may be ending just in time for the political conventions in summer 2008. The Republican candidates also have their own particular problems, For example, everything that John McCain does in relation to the religious right creates new baggage for his candidacy. McCain's support for campaign finance reform, proposing of eventual citizenship for illegals, and criticism of evangelical leaders weigh down his efforts to appeal to religious conservatives. Indeed, the pre-eminent figure of the religious right, James Dobson, has already announced that he would never vote for McCain. However, everything McCain does to appeal to the religious right like speak at Jerry Falwell University is going to be baggage if McCain ever has to appeal to moderates.
Other Republican candidates and non-candidates like Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney also bear heavy burdens if they win the Republican nomination.
Given that all of the major presidential candidates have substantial negatives, it is important to consider the baggage of a candidate like Hillary Clinton in relation to the baggage of other candidates. The same goes for Obama, Edwards, McCain, and Giuliani.
In this context, Hillary Clinton is carrying some real baggage, but I don't believe that the things weighing down her candidacy are not nearly as burdensome as the Bush administration is going to be for Republican candidates. If Hillary wins the Democratic nomination, it will be her relative lack of baggage that wins her the general election.
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2 comments:
I originally thought that perhaps McCain would be the major contender for the Republican nomination. But, it seems he continues to make blunder after blunder and is alienating everyone. The Republicans don't appear to have anyone who can pose a serious threat to the Democrats in the coming election. It really looks like the primary's where all the action will be, and once the Democrat's have chosen a candidate it should be smooth sailing into the presidency.
I agree. Hillary's middle name could be samsonite and still beat any Republican dumb enough to run in an election that is a guaranteed loss. Conservative loyalty to Bush has been a suicide pill, even if you try to distance yourself you look like a 'flip-flopper'.
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