Speculating About the Lieberman Switcheroo

Speculation about Joe Lieberman switching parties is heating up again because Lieberman is worried about Senate Democrats moving to cut off funding for the failed war in Iraq. There's a lot of sense to Lieberman switching parties. He's already more prominent as a Republican spokesman for the war than anybody not named John McCain. Switching parties would just make the transition official.

If Lieberman switched to the Republican Party, the Republicans would be likely to regain control with 50 votes plus Dick Cheney as a tie-breaker.

Except that there is also speculation that one of the Republican anti-war senators would declare themselves independent and caucus with the Democrats to prevent the Republicans from becoming the majority party again.

I think that's unlikely. Most of the speculation centers on Susan Collins of Maine (who was one year ahead of me at St. Lawrence University). However, that seems doubtful because Collins would have a very tough time winning re-election as an independent. There's also speculation about Chuck Hagel, but Hagel is much more conservative than Collins and it's difficult to see him caucusing with the Democrats on any issue except Iraq.

At the end of the day, Lieberman will probably switch alone. Still, the Democrats will be able to live quite comfortably with a 50-50 split. With Kentucky's senator Mitch McConnell as majority leader, the Republicans will once again assume responsibility for governing and do very badly at it. Given that the Senate Dems weren't going to get their own legislation through with only 51 votes, it won't kill them to not be governing.

So, go ahead Joe. Switch if you want. The number of Democrats who care gets fewer and fewer every day.