Predictably Unintended Consequences of the Surge

The Arc of the Surge. The surge is about a week old and it looks like sectarian killings are down in Baghdad. That's a good thing and I'm sure that Sunni residents especially are relieved by the lull in death squad activity.

But time has already begun to run out on hopes for success as signs of abuse and recklessnes emerge.

Raping Potential Converts. Earlier in the week, two women accused Iraqi forces of raping them. The account of the Sunni woman in Baghdad who was raped at least four times after being taken into custody is particularly disgusting because the rapes were a sanctioned form of torture. There's little doubt that Sabrine al-Janabi, her male relatives, and the al-Janabi tribe will not be coming over to the American side no matter how many outposts are set up in their neighborhoods.

In fact, the rapes were entirely predictable. The American military has had its own problems with taking out their frustrations on Sunni women, but the Iraqi army and police forces are much less disciplined, much less motivated to fight, and much more interested in the spoils of war. As the Iraqi military presence increases in Baghdad, there will be more rapes, murders, and reports of torture in their wake. The only question is when Sunni and Shiite resistance to the surge will be inflamed by the abuses. Sooner or later, it's going to happen.

Arresting the Government. Today, the American military apologized for arresting Amar al-Hakim, nephew of Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. The Supreme Council or SCIRI is the largest political party in Nouri al-Maliki's coalition government, but the U. S. has put special pressure on them because of their association with the Badr Brigade. The underlying problem is that both SCIRI and Moqtada al-Sadr's bloc are constituent parts of the Iraqi government. Likewise, their militias are also constituent parts of the Iraqi government. In many ways, the American surge strategy constitutes an attempt at purging the Iraqi government of two of it's strongest Shiite components.

If American officials think this is going to make the Iraqi government stronger, they're idiots. Purging SCIRI and al-Sadr would transform the parties and their militias from independent actors in the Iraqi government into government opponents. That would be another sign that the sure has failed.