The Opening for Newt

Yesterday, I saw something that caught my eye in the coverage of Mitt Romney's announcement of his presidential campaign. According to Fox, Romney "is considered a serious candidate in the same tier as McCain and former two-term New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani."

That just is not the case.

The top tier of the Republican presidential race is Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, with Giuliani stretching out to a 33% to 24.5% lead. Mitt Romney is trailing at 6.2% which is about what John Kerry was polling at when he declared himself out of the race. Despite a couple months of blanket coverage, Romney is barely registering with Republican voters. To say that Romney's even a second tier candidate is more charitable than accurate.

In fact, the second tier candidate is Newt Gingrich polling at an 11% RCP average in the national surveys and at 16% in the most recent Iowa poll. That's more than twice as much as Romney, a fact undoubtedly has not escaped Newt's notice.

Ultimately, there's a better chance of Newt moving up into the first tier of candidates than Mitt Romney. Indeed Newt has a lot of advantages in a Republican primary. First, Gingrich has a national reputation and a lot of experience in national policy debates. As a result, he doesn't have to spend a lot of money introducing himself to Republicans (like Giuliani and Romney). Unlike John McCain, Newt is a much-loved figure among most factions of Republicans.

Perhaps more importantly, not entering the race at an early date means that Newt Gingrich does not have to undergo the damaging interrogation from the right-wing that's currently being administered to McCain, Giuliani, and Romney. Having to tack right has already cost McCain a great deal of support among moderates without him gaining anything among the right-wingers who won't forgive McCain/Feingold or comprehensive immigration reform. Having to explain his marriage to a cousin, the mistress in the mayor's mansion, and his support for abortion rights and gay rights will eventually bring Giuliani down as well. Given the weaknesses of the Republican contenders, Gingrich might hop into the race if he ever reaches 20% in Iowa.

Gingrich's other advantage is that he is more "well-rounded" as a conservative than the other Republican contenders. Gingrich is a long established neo-con in foreign policy, social conservative on abortion and gay rights, and pro-business guy in economics. Neither Giuliani nor Romney can match Newt's long record of social conservatism while McCain is too much on the side of government regulation to satisfy the free market zealots.

If Newt plays his cards right and either McCain or Giuliani falter, Gingrich could find himself in the first tier by Labor Day. That's a lot more than Mitt Roney can say.