The Elephant and the Needle

According to the Gospel of St. Matthew, Jesus said that it was easier for "a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter into the Kingdom of God." Reflecting on today's National Intelligence Estimate, I'd have to say that the chances of U. S. policy succeeding in Iraq are more like getting a herd of elephants through the eye of a needle.

The Bush administration's plan is to have Iraqi army units lead a military effort to clear Baghdad of Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias. Once areas are cleared, the Iraqi army will set up forward posts with American support in order to continue holding the neighborhoods, prevent insurgents and militias from returning, and attract the loyalty of residents. With such minimal security, economic reconstruction will begin.

The Bush administration believes that re-establishing basic security in this way is a prerequisite for the compromises needed to achieve overall political stability in Iraq.

The problem is getting all the Bush elephant-sized assumptions to get through the miniature openings provided by conditions on the ground. Here's one of those assumptions.

The Bush administration expects the Iraqi army to take the lead in clearing insurgents and militias out of Baghdad. However, the Iraqi army is riddled with Shiite militias. According to McClatchey reports, the Mahdi Army has been especially effective at infiltrating Iraqi army and police units, benefitting from American training, and using American weapons. For 1st Lt. Dan Quinn, the Mahdi army exercises practical control in Baghdad. "People (in America) think it's bad, but that we control the city. That's not the way it is. They control it, and they let us drive around. It's hostile territory."

The Bush administration imagines that the Iraqi Army as a national institution. However, American efforts to strengthen the Iraqi Army have also strengthened the Shiite militias. In fact, the presence of 140,000 American troops might be the only thing that is keeping the Iraqi Army from devolving into a sectarian militia. According to the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) the transition of the Iraqi Army from national army to sectarian force is a possible outcome of an immediate withdrawal. If we leave, the Iraqi Army will become an extension of the Mahdi Army.