Right-wingers like Rush Limbaugh and Judge (and prolific author) Richard Posner are fond of saying that the Constitution is not a "suicide pact."
It's a cute phrase that's only meaningful to those who buy into the "be afraid, be very afraid" message of the American right on the war on terror, the Iraq War, Iran, health care, gay marriage, and other national issues.
But, it's the war in Iraq itself which has become a suicide pact for Bush administration, the Republican Party, and the right-wing. And they're suffering on a wide variety of fronts.
THE END OF THE AFFAIR WITH THE RIGHT. The war has already stripped the Bush administration and conservatism more broadly of its reputation. The main words people use to describe President Bush are insults like moron, idiot, and buffoon. My wife and I get regular congratulations for our bright yellow "W: Worst President Ever" bumper stickers. Conservativism in general seems to be sufferiong the same fate. The thirty years of hard-work that the right-wing put into building up the "conservative" brand is going down the drain as majorities of the American population as a whole and big majorities of African-Americans, Hispanics, women, young people, and gays identify themselves as Democrats.
It might not be that long before the only people who identify themselves as conservatives are folks with Confederate flag bumper stickers.
THE HARD AND SOFT MATH OF IT. The war has already cost the Republicans control over Congress and will probably ensure that Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is sworn in as the next president. If it's a Hillary/Obama ticket, there's a decent chance that the Democrats will control the presidency for the next 16 years before the country finally gets over its "Iraq Syndrome" and begins taking the Republicans seriously again. At the very least, the Iraq War will be an albatross around the neck of whoever is unlucky enough to be the Republican candidate. That's because the numbers are very tough for the Republicans and the right. According to recent polling, people are somewhat more optimistic about conditions in Iraq but that a large majority disapproves of President Bush and a majority want the Democrats to expedite withdrawal. According to the Pew Research Center, these conclusions have been locked in since last January or February. As a result, war-mongering Republican candidates are going to have a hard time convincing anybody other than partisan Republicans of the wisdom of continuing high levels of troop deployments.
But there's also a "fuzzy math" at work here. There is no good option for the war. If the war in Iraq goes on as it has for the last year, many of the politicians associated with the war are going to have a lot to worry about. But, if the Bush administration caves on the war and accepts withdrawal, it will be even worse for conservative politicians because they'll be left holding the bag of a failed war. They won't have a war to defend. They won't have a policy to advance. They'll be stuck without a readily identifiable agenda outside well-practiced right-wing smearing tactics on gay marriage, abortion, and pedophilia. It's "soft" math because it's hard to translate lack of an agenda into the hard numbers of polling and election results. But a Bush administration "surrender" to the Democrats would be very bad for the Republicans.
EXPANDING DOMESTIC GOVERNMENT. Rich Lowry cautions conservatives to "be afraid" of Hillary Clinton's health care proposal. According to Lowry, HillaryCare 2.0 is different from Hillary's 1993 proposal in that it's merely the logical next step in government involvement in health care rather than a radical overhaul. Government already pays half of the cost of health insurance; government mandates on individual coverage aren't much of a step beyond that. And it's likely that a Hillary administration would take further incremental steps. According to Michael Cannon, "Clinton proposes widening the availability of every government health-care program at hand -- Medicare would be extended to the nonelderly; the S-Chip program for poor children would be extended to the middle class; and the Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan would be extended to all."
If Hillary or Obama are elected president, they'll carry enhanced Democratic Congressional majorities with them and find a friendly legislative environment for these kinds of incremental proposals. The involvement of the federal government in the domestic economy will grow more extensive and most people who aren't right-wingers won't mind. Combined with the increased visibility of minority groups, feminists, and immigrants, and a general atmosphere of multi-culturalism and negotiated solutions, the election of a Democratic administration will make the country as a whole will be a less congenial place for conservatives. Conservatives had hoped that a long-term Republican domination would result in a radical re-orientation toward a market economy, an America First attitude, and a muscular, confrontational foreign policy.
But all of that might be lost and it might be lost for several electoral cycles.
And it will primarily be the result of the Iraq War.
NOT JUST ISOLATIONISM--ISOLATION. The creativity of the right-wing has been manifested in the formation of a series of alternative institutions ranging from conservative talk radio to Fox News, suburban mega-churches, and the proliferating Christian schools. However, a number of the political institutions and figures that served as bridges between conservative constituencies and the rest of the country are falling by the wayside. The Democratic Leadership Council, the mainstream media, and the New Republic are all good examples. All of these institutions used to take conservative ideas seriously, recast many of those ideas in liberal language, and show how conservative ideas could speak to liberal values. The war has both weakened these institutions and pretty much ended their bridging function.
The looming retirement of John Warner and Chuck Hagel, the rightward march of John McCain, and the electoral defeat of moderate Republicans like Lincoln Chaffee has reduced the number of electoral officials who could speak both conservative and liberal. These kinds of figures won't be replaced and moderate Republicans like Susan Collins are likely candidates for defeat in 2008.
The overall outcome is that conservatives are edging towards greater individual and group isolation within an American society that might explicitly reject them.
Once again, the main cause of this isolation will be the war they've cherished so much.
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6 comments:
The idea of the Constitution not being a suicide pact goes back to either Lincoln during the suspension of Habeus Corpus, or to Justice Jackson in a dissenting opinion on the Supreme Court. So, it is not some "cute" idea or phrase, nor is it new.
There is no good option for the war.
As is his wont, Caric substitutes his assertion for fact. You know this how? You know better than the Generals, the men and women in our armed forces who are fighting?
The Democratic Leadership Council, the mainstream media, and the New Republic are all good examples. All of these institutions used to take conservative ideas seriously, recast many of those ideas in liberal language, and show how conservative ideas could speak to liberal values.
This is pure comic gold.
Hillary 2.0 says she can envision a day where proof of insurance is required at a job interview? Is this a policy you are willing to get behind?
Caric - Other than disdain for The Other, if this war is such a grievous error, why is your party not doing everything that they can to stop it. They should vote to defund the war. They should vote for an immediate surrender. They should vote to bring the troops home yesterday. They should lead.
If they fail to do so, are they not every bit as culpable? If they fail to act, it is for political reasons, which would seem to make their position even more craven, no?
Mr. Ric
I don't pretend to speak for everyone, especially since many - if not most - of my friends and acquaintances disagree with my political views, but hear me out.
I grew up self-identifying as liberal; I was probably the most liberal kid in a - to be honest - not terribly liberal high school.
Upon attending college, I grew to understand that there were a great many who were considerably farther to the Left than me.
As I've grown older, I've gotten more conservative, which is pretty typical, really. 9/11 gave my rightward drift a little extra kick in the pants, to be sure.
And now, as a late thirty-something father with two kids, I'm still not really comfortable being labeled 'conservative' - I really don't think of myself as such, and certainly not as far a 'social conservativism' is concerned.
But I look around me at all the useful idiots who're calling themselves 'liberal' these days, and I sure as hell don't want to be counted with them.
And, to be clear, I am in fact talking about you.
It's interesting that the Iraq was, the one thing with which Democrats were continually beaten over the head is now destroying the Republican leadership, perhaps beyond repair. This destruction does not bother me. The President and his former Republican majority are reaping the whirlwind as a result of their reckless go-it-alone policy in Iraq. The American people have seen them for that which they truly are, and are in the process of rejecting their brand of dangerous, callous indifferent leadership.
The House and to a limited extend, the Senate have changed hands and we can expect to be further liberated next year with more gains in the US Senate, the House, The White House, and, I would venture to say, state legislatures and Gubanatorial races next year as well.
Republicans have only themselves and their poisonous policies to blame. In its fifth year, the war in Iraq has cost American taxpayers $450 billion and continues costing $2billion per week. To date, more almost 4000 American troops have lost their lives in Iraq and over 26,000 have been wounded. The policy and those in charge of it are insane. No one in his/her right mind could possibly call anything we have done in Iraq a success.
Same goes for the domestic policies to which we have been subjected since 2001.
And what about those domestic policies. We have been victimized domestically as much on a certain level as our men and women in uniform and innocent Iraqis.
Consider; Money needed for the working poor, the elderly and children is drying up even as budget deficits and the national debt sore to new heights.
Consider also; Katrina ignored, poverty ignored, our unfair trade policies, the need for more jobs and job training ignored.
The war is costing us Pell Grants for college students, quality housing for all our people. Reources for bridges, rails, and more schools are also being poured into the Iraq Money Pit.
The funds Mr. Bush has not used for the Iraq misadventure have been turned over to the wealthiest one percent of Americans. That alone is the definition of insanity.
Even if one enjoys watching our soldiers and innocent Iraqis die needlessly(and apparently some of you do), who the hell cuts taxes during wartime? Never before has such a reckless policy been in place. At least not in the United States.
How many of our troops should die so the President can save face? How many billions of our tax dollars should be spent so the President can continue denying his policies have not, are not, and never will work?
The choice is simple. Congressional Democrats should provide the money necessary to fully fund the safe, timely and responsible redeployment of troops and contractors from Iraq.
It won't happen under this President but the effort should be made by my party's leaders.
Having said all that let me say that it is an important duty of all of us to pay respect and to join in the sorrow of our troops and their families who are serving with such courage. The merits of this war are irrelevant when it comes to honoring and expressing our gratitude to them. It is NOT their fault that their President sent them to Iraq based on justifications that were blatantly false. It is not their fault that Mr Bush's was has been conducted in a way that compounds the original error. They didn't choose become involved in the worst mistake our country has ever made internationally.
So for the sake of all things good, our involvement in the Iraqi civil war must end and we must address priorities long neglected here at home in a meaningful way.
todd
reckless go-it-alone policy
What do you think all of our allies in this war think about your side completely discounting their efforts?
To date, more almost 4000 American troops have lost their lives in Iraq and over 26,000 have been wounded.
It is people like you that would have called D-Day a catostrophic failure.
Having said all that let me say that it is an important duty of all of us to pay respect and to join in the sorrow of our troops and their families who are serving with such courage.
With support like yours, who needs enemies?
Caric - That "cute" phrase has its roots go all the way back to Thomas Jefferson, but there is no need for you to be in any way accurate in your assessment of the opposition party, of which you know so little.
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