There are a couple of comments on Yglesias and Talking Points Memo about Rudy Giuliani slipping in the polls and his campaign being in trouble.
But I don't believe it.
Right now, Giuliani's lead is slipping because of Fred Thompson's roll out. However, Giuliani had maintained his initial lead for months despite an enormous amount of adverse publicity about his ignorance of foreign policy, multiple marriages, and management of emergency policy in NY.
And it's not like Fred Thompson isn't going to slide himself after more comes out about his own laziness, lack of morality, and wayward thinking on hot-button issues for conservatives.
So, Giuliani is in strong over-all position even if he is weak in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
The person who should be worried is Mitt Romney. Right now, he's leading in Iowa and New Hampshire and has a ton of money. But Romney has a very thin regional base (Utah, Michigan, and parts of New England) and fairly weak personal appeal because of the widespread opinion that he's a phony. To the contrary, Thompson comes off to conservatives as authentic even though he's an archetypical Southern bullshit artist (thanks to Todd Mayo for the heads-up here) .
As a result, it's even harder to see Romney moving up to the first tier than it was before Thompson entered the race.
The Republican nomination might end up as a blue state/red state showdown between Giuliani and Thompson.
The odds might favor Thompson because of his broader Southern base, but Giuliani still has a very real shot at it.
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19 comments:
You presumably have evidence that he is lazy, and immoral.
Needless to say, Thompson's immorality stems from his promiscuousness as a lobbyist. That's something he's confessed to. Promiscuity is considered immoral on religious grounds and on grounds that it's "using" people (which is considered immoral by any ethics that I know). For example, David Vitter's "use" of prostitutes would be considered immoral even if it weren't illegal.
Oh, I'm not scared of Thompson at all. Either Hillary or Obama would crush all the major Republican candidates. But I find it amusing that the Democrats are going to be the candidates of faith and morality in this election. I wonder if Gary Bauer is getting his endorsement of Hillary ready.
So what is your stand on negative campaigning, Dr. Ric?
B Moe
There are many different kinds of negative campaigning. What kind are you talking about? What do you mean "my stand?" Do you mean "what I would do about it?"
How does being a single lobbyist make someone immoral?
As a professed atheist, how do you presume to speak for people's religious beliefs?
For Christians, you can just look it up in the Bible. Both Jesus and Paul have stuff to say about sex and what they say would be authoritative for many Christians. I don't see why this is a problem though. I'm sure Ann Coulter would agree with me. In fact, Coulter views male promiscuity as a sign of latent homosexuality. Maybe she would urge Fred to come out of the closet.
I don't see why being a single lobbyist would make Thompson's promiscuousness any more "moral."
Professor, I heard this last weekend that Guiliani is being advised by noted kook Fred Kagan. As if Rudy's authoritarian streak weren't frightening in and of itself, he's got AEI's gift to nepotism advising him on foreign policy? Dear Lord! We should ask Guiliani which countries he does NOT intend to invade!
Thompson's a momentary blip in the Romey v Guiliani contest. Never thought I'd root so heartily for Romney
Romney is not going to win the primaries, nor will McCain. This will come down to Thompson and Giuliani. I will hold off on whom I will support until closer to the primaries, to see how everything plays out.
Dating is immoral? Pretty judgemental for an atheist, no?
So then, in the end JD agrees with my conclusion that the Republican primaries will come down to Giuliani and Fred.
That you arrived at the correct final pair does nothing to prove the veracity of your tortured reasoning.
I assume that you're disagreeing with me when I say that Fred Thompson comes off as authentic.
^
Obtuse. Just plain, old-fashioned obtuse.
And how dare Thompson eloquently turn down an advance. As a powerful individual he has the responsibility to use women while on the clock and in government offices. The least he could have done is stain a dress for her to remember him by.
I didn't realize that the right now considered "moral equivalence" to Bill Clinton as a good thing.
Oh yeah. Since "treating people respectfully" belongs solely to the left, we've all decided to adopt "treat people like objects" as our official stance.
I am disagreeing with you. I believe he is authentic, and you believe it is an act. Last time your party believed it was all an act, it lost 2 consecutive Preisdential elections.
Why is it that identity is so tied to Leftist politics? It always seems like you are trying to define who is authentic, and who is not. Conservative blacks, women, and assorted minorities are considered inauthentic. Why the focus on this?
"Thompson comes off to conservatives as authentic even though he's an archetypical Southern bullshit artist (thanks to Todd Mayo for the heads-up here)."
Thanks much for the acknowledgement Ric. I think you're the only person in this forum who doesn't hate me.
Todd - We do not hate you, we just think you are wrong. On the other hand, we are not given enough respect to just say we have differing viewpoints, you, Caric, et al. take it a step further and apply motive, ie. greed, cronyism, racism, homophobia, sexism, etc ... Look inward to find the hate.
You ooze hate toward me JD. Calling me cutnpaste. I do that when I wish to include articles or information relevent to the topic at hand and I provide links to my sources. You accuse us of insulting you and calling names. That's ALL you do. And as for the "ill treatment" you feel that you get here...what the hell did you expect? Did you think those of us on the left would just fold and agree with you? If you people feel like you are disrespcted here why do you come here?
I do not hate you either but I'll never understand your need to argue in a venue where you KNOW you won't like what we say in responce. But hey, it takes all kinds!!
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