Easter Iraq Notes

Sadr Statement Overblown. Moqtada al-Sadr's statement that Iraqis should focus on opposing the occupation rather than killing each other received a lot of play today. But Sadr's comments don't necessarily mean that his Mahdi Army is going to be stepping up operations. Given that tomorrow is the fourth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad, al-Sadr might have been making a vague ceremonial statement more than anything else, something like Condoleeza Rice calling the war in Iraq a "generational commitment."

Spreading Out the Violence. The surge has resulted in a decrease in sectarian violence to the extent that there are far fewer Shiite militia killings in Baghdad. But Sunni insurgents have increased their activity and the overall picture of violence in Iraq has changed little as a result. The violence is more diffuse in the sense that it's spread out to Tal Afar, Diwaniya, and Mahmoudiya. But it's still at such an extremely high level that it's hard to say that the surge has made much difference overall.

Still Not Enough Troops. There still aren't nearly enough American and good Iraqi troops to make the occupation work. Right now, the United States has enough troops in Baghdad to force out a significant portion of the Sunni insurgents and intimidate the Mahdi Army, Badr Brigades, and other Shiite militas. But, there aren't nearly enough American and Iraqi troops to stay on the offensive once the insurgents and militias move to other towns. Moreover, it would take two or three times our current deployment (of 170,000) or so to maintain offensives against opposing forces, provide good security for occupied areas, and engage in economic rebuilding. The proponents of the surge wanted to give the occupation of Iraq one more chance to work, but the chances of the surge succeeding are so ridiculously small that they just should have just started drawing down the occupation last December after the report of the Iraq Study Group came out.