The Surge Effect Begins

They Can't Hide. According to Robert Novak, only 12 or 13 out of 49 Republican Senators support the planned increase in American troops in Iraq. Also, "two Republican senators who face an uphill race for reelection in 2008," Gordon Smith of Oregon and Norm Coleman of Minnesota, have already defected from Bush's Iraq policy. But if President Bush pushes through with Frederic Kagan and Jack Keane's plan to put 30,000 more troops in Iraq for at least 18 months, the surge is going to have the same effect on incumbent Republicans that the best of the Marines have on global terrorists. The surge will ensure that Republicans are harried with damaging attack ads, blown up in their safe constituencies, and tossed aside like three-day road kill no matter how well-liked they are.

Cutting Off the Right. Another casualty of the surge might be the presidential aspirations of John McCain. McCain is already slipping in the polls as a result of his support for the war. If the surge turns out to be as unpopular as this blog believes, then McCain's candidacy will sink further. But here's the conundrum. How many Republicans other than Chuck Hagel of Nebraska have consistently expressed scepticism about the Bush administration's conduct of the war? Because there's almost none, McCain's anti-war flank will be forever safe and he might win the Republican primary only to be chewed up Mondale-style in the general election. The other problem for McCain would be the possibility of the religious right, the neo-con faithful, and corporate interests teaming up to field a third-party candidate from the right.

Lieberman Too Neo-Conservative for GOP? Connecticut Republicans might have to rethink their votes for Joe Lieberman. Not only is Lieberman the only Democrat to support the surge, but he is far out in front of most Republican Senators as well. Perhaps Independent Joe has become too much of a neo-con for Republicans as well as Democrats and Independents.