Decoding the NIE

“Key Judgments” of the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate have been declassified. To put the issue simply, initial U. S. operations in Afghanistan “seriously damaged” al-Qaida, but the invasion of Iraq has resulted in a reversal of that progress and led to the growth and diffusion of the “global jihadist movement.” Because of the weakening of al-Qaeda, there is less of an immediate threat than there was in 2001, but the growth of the global jihadist movement will lead to more attacks on U. S. interests “at home and abroad.”

How has the invasion of Iraq led to growth in global jihadism?
1. “The Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre. for jihadists, breeding a deep
resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for
the global jihadist movement.”

2. “ . . . the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and
operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the
struggle elsewhere.”

In other words, the jihad against the American occupation in Iraq is creating a new wave of terrorist leaders, operatives, and fighters trained in operations against the American military. When those terrorists return to their home countries, they are greeted by an audience that is highly receptive to the global jihadi message because of the intense and widespread Muslim resentment of the occupation.

If it were not for the Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq, the global jihadist movement would be much weaker. The NIE mentions several reasons for this. Most importantly, the jihadist program of sharia based governance is unpopular with the majority of the Muslim population. Likewise, many important Muslim clerics oppose global jihad and there has been at least a potential for democratization. However, the enormous resentment of Arab and Muslim populations over the U. S. invasion of Iraq keep these factors from resulting in a weakening of global jihadism. At this point, the appeal of jihadism is based on resentment over the American occupation of Iraq and the endemic corruption and stagnation of Muslim nations. The NIE gives the impression that the invasion of Iraq has become the most important factor stimulating the growth of global jihadism.

The NIE engages in a little wishful thinking concerning how global jihadism could be countered. Encouraging the “Muslim mainstream” to disavow the global jihadists, the possibility of defeating the jihadists in Iraq, and the death of high profile leaders like bin Laden and al-Zarqawi in “rapid succession” are all posed as developments that could reduce the appeal of global jihadism. However, the NIE doesn’t express much confidence that any of these events will happen soon (although Zarqawi, of course, has been killed).

Right now, the major factor cited by the NIE as discouraging attacks on the U. S. is that Europe presents such an inviting target. Despite our $500 billion military, cultural and geographical isolation appears to be the strongest weapon in the American arsenal.

The NIE Key Judgments are written in the driest possible bureaucratic language. However, it is necessary to point out that the NIE’s emphasis on connecting the occupation of Iraq to the growth of global jihadism makes the NIE a left-wing document. Left-wing war critics of the Bush administration have been arguing that an invasion of Iraq would stimulate global terrorism since even before the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Being correct is no consolation for the disastrous outcomes of the Iraq invasion, but acknowledging that the invasion was doomed to make the war on terrorism worse is an important element in rethinking American policy for the future.